1. The University of Birmingham Role of HDM-4 in Road Management Professor Henry Kerali The University of Birmingham England, UK

2. International Study of Highway Development and Management n Sponsors: l World Bank l Dept for International Development l Asian Development Bank l SNRA & Others n In progress since 1993 comprising l technical studies (1993~1997) l software development and testing (1996~1999) l PIARC leading the implementation phase (1999 ~ )

3. Limitations of HDM-III  Software difficult to use  VOC models for are for “Old” vehicle and tyre technology  HDM-III does not consider: l Rigid pavements l Pavement texture and skid resistance l Freeze-thaw conditions l Road safety costs l Congestion costs l Non-motorised transport l Environmental effects

4. HDM-4 Analytical Framework Predicts road network performance as a function of: l Traffic volumes and loading l Road pavement strength l Maintenance standards l Environment Quantifies benefits to road users from: l Savings in vehicle operating costs (VOC) l Reduced road user travel times l Decrease in number of accidents l Environmental effects

5. Pavement Performance Pavement Types modelled: l Bituminous (AC, ST, etc.) l Unsealed (Gravel, Earth, Sand, etc.) l Concrete (JPCP, JRCP, CRCP, etc.) l Block (Bricks, etc.) Calibrated using data from pavement performance experiments in: l Brazil, Kenya, India, South Africa l France, USA, Sweden, Finland, Australia

6. Bituminous Pavement Types

7. Factors Affecting Pavement Performance n CONSTRUCTION - type and quality n STRENGTH - Structural No, Deflection n TRAFFIC - no. of ESAL n CLIMATE - moisture, temperature, rainfall n TIME - pavement age n DRAINAGE - condition/quality n MAINTENANCE - type and quality

8. Pavement Deterioration Various defects modelled: l Cracking l Ravelling l Potholing l Edge break l Rutting l Roughness l Texture depth l Skid resistance Damaged Area

9. Road Work Classification Preservation l Routine Ü Patching, Edge repair Ü Drainage, Crack sealing l Periodic Ü Preventive treatments Ü Rehabilitation Ü Pavement reconstruction l Special Ü Emergencies Ü Winter maintenance Development l Improvement s Ü Widening Ü Realignment Ü Off-carriageway works l Construction Ü Upgrading Ü New sections

10. Road Maintenance & Improvement n Affects long term pavement performance n Funding requirements depend on specified maintenance standards & unit costs Roughness Rehabilitation Time (years) or Traffic Loading Maintenance Standard Pavement Performance Curve Good Poor

11. Road User Effects n Vehicle operating costs l fuel, oil, tyres, parts consumption l vehicle utilisation & depreciation n Travel time l passengers l cargo n Road accidents n Energy consumption n Vehicle emissions & noise

12. Motorised Vehicles Category Class Type

13. Non-Motorised Vehicles Category Class Type

14. Impact of Road Condition Road Condition (IRI) Road User Costs ($/veh-km) Good Poor Car Pickup/utility Heavy Truck Bus Rickshaw

15.  Planning l Setting standards and policies l Long term estimates of expenditure  Programming l Medium term work programmes  Preparation l Detailed project design and work packaging  Operations l Implementation of works in field Road Management Functions

16. Role of HDM-4

17. HDM-4 Applications n Road sector policy studies n Strategic planning of road network development, improvement & maintenance n Determination of funding requirements n Preparation of multi-year road work programmes n Economic appraisal of individual road projects n Research studies

18. Policy Formulation Road pricing l road use costs (to define fuel levies) l congestion charges l weight-distance charges Vehicle regulations l axle load limits l energy consumption, vehicle emissions & noise Engineering Standards l sustainable road network size l pavement design and maintenance standards

19. Strategy Analysis Objectives: l Determine budget allocations for road maintenance and improvement l Prepare for work programmes l Determine long term network performance l Assess impact on road users Strategy analysis is concerned with the analysis of entire road networks to determine funding needs and/or to predict future performance under budget constraints

20. Procedure n Categorise road network into matrix cells n Define representative traffic volume and loading n Define maintenance and improvement standards n Specify budget constraints n Model pavement deterioration for each matrix cell n Apply maintenance and improvement standards n Calculate road user benefits n Select maintenance standards which optimise user benefits

21. Strategic Analysis Approach Road Network GFP L M H Matrix Resource Constraints Optimal Strategy under Budgetary Constraints Preservation Evaluation Optimization Module Revenues, Sector budgets Development Candidates

22. Road Network Matrix Length of Roads (km) Flexible Pavement Traffic HighMed.Low Gravel Pavement Traffic HighMed.Low Cond. Road Class Trunk GFPGFP Feeder GFPGFP GFPGFP Urban 76283307 285262261 311420321 186 152 203 355 404361 405 432321

23. Strategic Planning Outputs Funding Requirements l Long term expenditure plans l Allocation between budget heads: Ü Maintenance, Improvement, Development, etc. l Allocation between Regions/sub-networks Ü Northern, Eastern, Southern, regions, etc. Ü Primary, Secondary, Tertiary, etc. Long term performance trends l Average network condition l Performance indicators

24. Expenditure Strategy Analysis... Long term budget forecasts 12345 Maintenance128133135135136 Rehabilitation9977798386 Improvement5688879190 Development4578663649 Bridges3437403940 TOTAL362413407384401

25. Effect of budget levels $20m $15m $10m Annual Budget Target = 3.5 IRI Primary Roads

26. Road Network Performance Feeder Roads $30m/yr Secondary Roads $35m/yr Primary Roads $20m/yr Budget Allocations

27. Optimal budget requirements

28. Optimal budget allocations

29. Pavement condition by road class (2001)

30. Programme Analysis n Objective: prioritise candidate road projects in each year within annual budget constraint n Annual budgets obtained from strategic maintenance plan Concerned with the preparation of single or multi- year road work and expenditure programmes under specified budget constraints.

31. Multi-Year work programme n Method: use specified standards to screen network & identify candidate projects, e.g. l road sections which exceed specified condition l roads with inadequate capacity l pavements which need strengthening l upgrade pavements with high traffic volumes

32. Procedure n Select candidate road projects n Determine maintenance or improvement options n Specify budget limits & periods n Optimise using selected objective n Produce optimal list of projects for budget period

33. Multi Year Programme n Long list of candidate road projects l New sections, Upgrading/Paving l Improvements (widening, lane additions) l Rehabilitation (Overlays, Reconstruction) n Each with alternative improvements n Specify budget limits & time period n Optimise to produce list of feasible projects within budget period

34. Work Program

36. Project Appraisal Project types l New construction, upgrading l Reconstruction, resealing l Widening, lane addition l Non-Motorised Transport lanes Calculated economic indicators l Net Present Value (NPV) l Economic Rate of Return (ERR) l Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) l First Year Rate of Return (FYRR)

37. Project Level Outputs n Sensitivity analysis results l Scenario analysis l Road condition indicators l Road user cost details l Energy & emissions

38. The University of Birmingham Implementation

39. Integration within a Road Management System Data Collection Roads Databank HDM-4 Management Information Inventory, Condition, Traffic, bridges. Data Preparation Tool Roads Database (RDBMS) User selection of roads; segmentation; derivation of defaults; input file creation Project and network level analysis. Strategic and policy studies. Economic indicators, multi-year rolling work programmes, etc. 4

40. Integrating HDM-4 within Road Management Systems Road Inventory Road Condition Traffic Data Bridges Inventory Bridges Condition HDM4 Long Term Strategic Road Plan Multi -Year Work Program Detailed Project Level Appraisal Policies Standards Research INPUTS OUTPUTS HDM-4 DATABASE

41. Country Experience n Russia n Bangladesh n Armenia n Estonia n Slovenia n Papua New Guinea n Thailand n Brazil n Tanzania n Zimbabwe n Australia n New Zealand n Sweden (benchmark) n South Africa n Finland n Fiji

42. Conclusions n HDM-4 is based on a well established economic analysis framework n Models derived from large scale field experiments conducted world-wide n International standard tool for road sector planning and management n Provides a common framework for analysis of road management options n International technical support behind HDM-4

43. The University of Birmingham