1. School of Earth & Environment SUSTAINABILITY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 1. Stocks & Flows Modelling 2. Low-carbon infrastructure Julia K. Steinberger Undermining Infrastructure Preliminary Meeting Leeds, August 23 rd 2011

2. Outline 2 1.Stocks & Flows Modelling 2.Low-carbon infrastructure

3. Stocks and Flows: definition Stocks and flows are accounting terms in Industrial Ecology and national statistics physical accounts A flow crosses the system boundary during a calendar year Food, fuels Imports, exports Mineral inputs & wastes A stock remains in the system Existing stock, (net) addition to stock Often interpreted as “physical infrastructure” Some similarities with “capital” in economics Basically, bookkeeping for materials 3

4. J.K. Steinberger | TU Wien Sust. Tech. Forum| May 20 2009 | 4 Economic Processing Stocks Material flows Domestic Extraction Direct Processed Outputs Indir. flows Imports Exports Air, Water Vapour CO2 Domestic Environment Source: WRI et al., 2000 (slightly modified)

5. Measurement issues At the national level, can account for flows Stocks are much more difficult How to estimate existing stocks? Project for EU DG Environment based on built area and road&rail lengths (Wiedenhofer, Steinberger, Eisenmenger) “Net Addition to Stocks” each year = Inputs – Outputs But output (waste) statistics are always terrible Top-down vs. Bottom-up methods 5 Kovanda, J., M. Havranek and T. Hak (2007). "Calculation of the "Net additions to stock" indicator for the Czech Republic using a direct method." Journal of Industrial Ecology 11(4): 140-154.

6. Modelling tool: stock dynamics 6 Müller, D. B. (2006). "Stock dynamics for forecasting material flows--Case study for housing in The Netherlands." Ecological Economics 59(1): 142-156.

7. 4D GIS of urban stocks 7 Tanikawa, H. and S. Hashimoto (2009). "Urban stock over time: spatial material stock analysis using 4d-GIS." Building Research and Information 37(5-6): 483-502.

8. 4D GIS in Manchester 8

9. Summary of S&F Currently quite basic (few material types, information limited to tons) Interesting advances in dynamic & spatially explicit modelling Very dependent on: Material intensities of infrastructure: tons/m2, tons/m Average lifetimes (not real lifetimes...) Why use this framework for UI? Connects existing (or planned) infrastructure with material demands and anticipated waste streams 9

10. Low carbon infrastructures 10 2008/9 2010 2011

11. Specific goals 11 2011 20102011

12. 12 Renewables (wind, tide), nuclear, CCS,smart grid Low carbon cars, busses, high speed rail Heat pumps, smart meters