1. National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile - Pensacola Special Briefing Tropical Storm Lee Special Briefing Tropical Storm Lee 2 PM CDT Saturday 3 September 2011

2. Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories Tropical Storm Warning Tropical Storm Watch Tropical Storm Warning Tropical Storm Watch Also in effect: Flash Flood Watch Flash Flood Watch

3. Heavy Rain Heavy Rain

4. Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Track

5. Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities

6. Heavy Rain Impacts Main threat for significant flooding appears to be setting up southwest of a Waynesboro to Destin line where 10 to 15 inches of rain could fall with locally higher amounts possible. Flooding of small streams and poor draining areas could start late today into Sunday as grounds become saturated. Many river systems in SE Mississippi and SW Alabama will rise to flood stage starting on Monday. A few rivers in the western Florida panhandle will rise to flood stage Monday into Tuesday. The heavy rain threat could still shift a bit farther to the east based on the eventual strength of the eastern rain bands with system. Waynesboro Wiggins Leakesville Mobile Gulf Shores Pensacola Destin Evergreen Andalusia Greenville Grove Hill Monroeville Butler NWS Mobile - Pensacola Projected Rain Totals (SAT 3 SEP -TUE 6 SEP)

7. Tornado Impacts We will have to monitor for quick development of short lived tornadoes in stronger cells with the bands on the eastern side of the tropical storm. Tornado Watch in Effect for today. Expect threat of brief tornadoes to continue into Sunday. Movement of the cells will be generally southeast to northwest.

8. Specific NWS Wind Forecast Sunday 12 AM CDT12 PM CDT 35G45KT 30G40KT 20G30KT 10G20KT 20G30KT 20G30KT 10G20KT 20G30KT 35G45KT 30G40KT Winds 30 mph with periodic gusts of 40 mph in squalls along the coast. Rain soaked grounds will result in some trees getting uprooted as the stronger rain squalls and thunderstorms move through.

9. Specific NWS Wind Forecast Monday 12 AM CDT12 PM CDT 20G30KT 10G20KT 25G35KT 35G45KT 30G40KT 25G35KT 35G45KT Winds picking up to 30 mph over inland areas with periodic gusts to 40 mph possible in heavier rain bands. Tropical Storm Lee will likely be weakening to a tropical depression by late Monday. Rain soaked grounds will result in some trees getting uprooted as the stronger rain squalls and thunderstorms move through.

10. Specific NWS Wind Forecast Tuesday 12 AM CDT12 PM CDT 25G35KT 30G40KT 35G45KT 15G25KT 10G20KT 15G25KT 20G30KT Winds relaxing to 15 to 25 mph and becoming northwesterly as the center of then Tropical Depression Lee passes to the north.

11. Coastal Flood and Beach Impacts Dangerous rip currents and breaking waves in the surf zone of 6 to 8 feet are expected through Monday. Large wave run-up to the dunes expected at the beaches during high tide in the early morning hours. Some minor beach erosion possible. Tide observed to be 2 to 3 feet above normal astronomical tide along the Alabama coast…1 to 2 feet above normal tide along the western Florida panhandle. Minor coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is possible during period of high tide early Sunday morning and early Monday morning. Minor flooding will be along the immediate coast, especially along the Mobile Bay Causeway, the Highway 193 Causeway to Dauphin Island, west end of Dauphin Island, and Fort Pickens near Pensacola.

12. Marine Impacts …Tropical Storm Warning in Effect… Offshore winds increasing to 30 to 40 knots with gusts to 45 knots in squalls. Seas 12 to 16 feet. Conditions not likely improving until Tuesday evening.

13. Projected Impact Assessment Saturday Through Monday For SE Mississippi, SW Alabama and NW Florida RainwaterFloodSurge Coastal Flood RipCurrentsBeachErosionWindTornado High Moderate High Moderate Extreme High Moderate Low None LowLow WFO Mobile

14. To Contact the NWS Web… –http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob Facebook… –http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Mobile.gov Web… –http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob Facebook… –http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Mobile.gov