1. Travel time reliability of Light Rail in Hong Kong NG WAI YIN12102706D BEng (Hons) in Transportation Systems Engineering Project ID: FYP_4006B_18 Supervisor: Dr. Siu Wing Yee, Barbara

2. Table of Content  Introduction  Literature Review  Methodology  Results and analysis  Mitigation measure  Conclusion  Reference List

3. Background  Light Rail is mainly providing services in New Terriorities West  This study is mainly analysising the travel time reliability of Light Rail in Light Rail Fare Zone 5  Headway adherence  Travel time variability Two main focus of this study

4. Objectives  Analyzing the headway adherence of MTR’s Light Rail Transit in Light Rail Fare Zone 5  Assessing the travel time variability of Light Rail service in Light Rail Fare Zone 5  Providing recommendation to enhance the travel time reliability of Light Rail route

5. Literature Review  Travel time reliability is the consistency or dependability in travel times, as measured from day-to-day and/ or across different times of the day  Two main factors reflecting the reliability of a transit service ( On-time performance and the consistency of headways )  Both definitions will be two aspects of travel time reliability in this study

6. Literature Review – Headway adherence  “On-time” is usually defined as within the range of 1 minute early to 5 minute late  This definition may not be an appropriate definition to on-time performance of Light Rail in Hong Kong  The range of delay time stated may equal to the scheduled headway of Light Rail route  This definition will not be applied in this study

7. Literature Review – Headway adherence C vh On-time performance illustration 0-0.21 The provision of Light Rail services is on-time 0.22-0.30The actual headway of Light Rail is slightly larger than its scheduled headway 0.31-0.39The actual headway of Light Rail is usually larger than its scheduled headway 0.40-0.52Uneven headway exists meanwhile vehicle bunching may exists 0.53-0.74More uneven headway exists meanwhile more vehicle bunching may exists >0.74Vehicle bunching in the Light Rail network is severe Headway deviations = Actual headway – scheduled headway

8. Literature Review – Travel time variability  Susilawati et al. suggested to fit travel time data into different statistical distribution  Analysis the travel time variability based on the characteristics of selected statistical distribution model and travel time data

9. Literature Review – Travel time variability  Van Lint et al. suggested statistical range method to measure the travel time variability and reliability  Indicators of statistical range method includes Mean, Standard Deviation, Travel time window (TTW), Buffer Time and Buffer Index Name of indicator Mathematical expression Standard Deviation (STD) Travel time window (TTW) Buffer Index (BI) Buffer Time

10. Literature Review – Travel time variability  The collected travel time data may not completely fit into a statistical model  The indicators of statistical range method are easier to use and compute  The values of indicators shows the difference of travel time variability clearly

11. Methodology – Preliminary Study  Location and signal junction and red times along selected rail segment  The schedule of Light Rail route is recorded based on the information shown on the display board in Yuen Long station  The position of signal junction is marked as a reference

12. Methodology – Definition of afternoon peak hours  The official definition of afternoon peak hour by MTR is from 4:45 to 7:45 p.m  Narrowing the range of afternoon peak hour by counting the number of inflow passengers in Yuen Long station  The headway or travel time data is collecting when the afternoon peak hour is completely formed

13. Methodology – Definition of afternoon peak hours  Counting the number of inflow passengers every 15 minutes in Yuen Long station from 5:00 to 8:00 p.m. 29/10/2015 Timeslot 17:00- 17:15 17:15- 17:30 17:30- 17:45 17:45- 18:00 18:00- 18:15 18:15- 18:30 18:30- 18:45 18:45- 19:00 19:00- 19:15 19:15- 19:30 19:30- 19:45 19:45- 20:00 No. of Passen ger 348461487554588672691722682671589572 2/11/2015 Timeslot 17:00- 17:15 17:15- 17:30 17:30- 17:45 17:45- 18:00 18:00- 18:15 18:15- 18:30 18:30- 18:45 18:45- 19:00 19:00- 19:15 19:15- 19:30 19:30- 19:45 19:45- 20:00 No. of Passen ger 365449512524576656663701685694612587 3/11/2015 Timeslot 17:00- 17:15 17:15- 17:30 17:30- 17:45 17:45- 18:00 18:00- 18:15 18:15- 18:30 18:30- 18:45 18:45- 19:00 19:00- 19:15 19:15- 19:30 19:30- 19:45 19:45- 20:00 No. of Passen ger 291387496535564645673712704692665623 Afternoon peak hour: 5:30 to 7:30 p.m.

14. Methodology – Record of headway data

15. Methodology - Record of travel time  The travel time elements are recorded inside the Light Rail train car  3 elements of travel time are recorded during the journey  Station-to-station travel time  Station dwell time  Station-to-station signal delay time  Target rail segment: From Yuen Long station to Shui Pin Wai station in both directions  Non-peak hour: 10:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m.  Afternoon peak hour: 6:00 to 7:30 p.m.

16. Result and analysis - Introduction  A discussion based on the value of C vh will be done in “Headway Adherence” section  A number of scatteded bar charts will be used to show the station-to- station travel time and station dwell time  The average station-to-station signal delay time will be discussed

17. Result and analysis – Headway adherence Summary of Coefficient of Variance of Schedule Deviation (C vh ) in the direction of Tin Yat station or Tuen Mun Ferry Pier station Afternoon Peak HourNon-peak hour Route761P610614615761P610614615 YL0.130.220.050.100.150.050.090.02 TTR0.330.260.090.150.110.08 0.03 HLR0.240.260.080.13 0.080.060.05 FNR0.240.130.150.040.160.200.100.05 SPW0.250.240.130.210.230.130.070.05 The C vh value during afternoon peak hour tends to be larger than that during non-peak hour

18. Result and analysis – Station-to-station travel time  From Yuen Long station to Shui Pin Wai station

19. Result and analysis – Station-to-station travel time  From Shui Pin Wai station to Yuen Long station

20. Result and analysis – Station dwell time  In the direction of Tin Yat station or Tuen Mun Ferry Pier Direction Long station dwell time in Yuen Long station Relatively shorter station dwell time during afternoon peak hour

21. Result and analysis – Station dwell time  In the direction of Yuen Long station Extreme station dwell time

22. Result and analysis – Station-to-station signal delay time  In the direction of Tin Yat station or Tuen Mun Ferry Pier station  In the direction of Yuen Long station Non-peak hour Signal position betweenAverage signal delay time (seconds) YL - TTR15 TTR - HLR9 HLR - FNR12 FNR - SPW10 Afternoon peak hour Signal position betweenAverage signal delay time (seconds) YL - TTR13 TTR - HLR13 HLR - FNR12 FNR - SPW9 Non-peak hour Signal position betweenAverage signal delay time (seconds) YL - TTR18 TTR - HLR3 HLR - FNR3 FNR - SPW4 Afternoon peak hour Signal position betweenAverage signal delay time (seconds) YL - TTR12 TTR - HLR2 HLR - FNR4 FNR - SPW5

23. Mitigation measure - Introduction  Have a review on the value of C vh during afternoon peak hour Summary of Coefficient of Variance of Schedule Deviation (C vh ) in the direction of Tin Yat station or Tuen Mun Ferry Pier station Afternoon Peak Hour Route761P610614615 YL0.13 0.22 0.050.10 TTR0.33 0.26 0.090.15 HLR0.24 0.26 0.080.13 FNR0.24 0.13 0.150.04 SPW0.25 0.24 0.130.21 The on-time performance of Route 610 tends to be the worst comparing to other two routes going to Yuen Mun Ferry Pier station

24. Mitigation measure - Introduction  It is proposed to shorten the route of Light Rail route 610

25. Mitigation measure – Calculation and Results

26. Option 1 (From Yuen Long station to Siu Hong station) Option 2 (From Yuen Long station to Tuen Mun Ferry Pier station) Rail segments in the route1125 Total travel time35.75 minutes96.88 minutes Average station-to-station travel time3.25 minutes3.87 minutes Variance of station-to-station travel time2.03 minutes2.11 minutes  Departure from Yuen Long station   Average and variance of station-to-station travel time  Travel time reliability

27. Mitigation measure – Calculation and Results  In the direction of Yuen Long station  Average and variance of station-to-station travel time  Travel time reliability Option 1 (From Siu Hong station to Yuen Long station) Option 2 (From Tuen Mun Ferry Pier station to Yuen Long station) Rail segments in the route1125 Total travel time33.4 minutes95.07 minutes Average station-to-station travel time3.04 minutes3.80 minutes Variance of station-to-station travel time2.11 minutes2.42 minutes

28. Conclusion  Review the travel time reliability of Light Rail routes in Light Rail Fare Zone 5  Headway adherence during non-peak hour and afternoon peak hour  The on-time performance of most of the Light Rail routes during afternoon peak hour tends to be worse  Travel time variability of Light Rail routes running between Yuen Long station to Shui Pin Wai station  Station-to-station travel time  Station dwell time  Station-to-station signal delay time 3 elements of travel time variability

29. Conclusion  Route modification of Light Rail Route 610 is proposed  Average and variance of station-to-station travel time reduced  The travel time reliability of Route 610 enhanced

30. Reference List  [1] The Census and Statistics Department, “The profile of Hong Kong Population Analysed by District, 2009,” Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, June, 2010  [2] The Census and Statistics Department, “The profile of Hong Kong Population Analysed by District, 2014,” Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, June, 2015  [3] Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual, 3rd ed., Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2013.  [4] U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, "Travel Time Reliability: Making It There On Time, All The Time", 2015. [Online]. Available: http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/tt_reliability/brochure/index.htm. [Accessed: 04- Jan- 2016].  [5] R. Noland and J. Polak, "Travel time variability: A review of theoretical and empirical issues", Transport Reviews, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 39-54, 2002.  [6] J. van Lint, H. van Zuylen and H. Tu, "Travel time unreliability on freeways: Why measures based on variance tell only half the story", Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 42, no. 1, pp. 258-277, 2008.  [7] D. Deka, "Factors associated with disability paratransit's travel time reliability", Journal of Transport Geography, vol. 48, pp. 96-104, 2015.  [8] S. Susilawati, M. Taylor and S. Somenahalli, "Distributions of travel time variability on urban roads", Journal of Advanced Transportation, vol. 47, no. 8, pp. 720-736, 2011.  [9]A. Nicholson, "Travel time reliability benefits: Allowing for correlation", Research in Transportation Economics, vol. 49, pp. 14-21, 2015.  [10] MTR Corporation, "MTR > The remark of Estimated Journey Time", Mtr.com.hk. [Online]. Available: http://www.mtr.com.hk/en/customer/main/jp_cust_notice.html. [Accessed: 20- Oct- 2015].  [11] MTR Corporation, "Light Rail route map". [Online]. Available: http://www.mtr.com.hk/archive/en/services/LR_routemap.pdf. [Accessed: 17- Sep- 2015].  [12] MTR Corporation, "MTR > Light Rail Planner", Mtr.com.hk. [Online]. Available: http://www.mtr.com.hk/en/customer/lr_jp/index.php. [Accessed: 27- Feb- 2016].