1. 1 Statistical studies 1.- CL for decreasing luminosities. 2.- Exclusion at 95%CL as function of luminosity. 3. Exclusion at 95%CL as function of m H Francisco J. Pozuelos 6/05/09

2. 2 1.-CL for decreasing luminosities

3. 3 Cross section* Sig.(fb)Back.(fb) 14 TeV 25.35947 10 TeV 14.5642 >Cross section used in this study *Data from “Prospects for Discovery of the Standard Model Higgs Boson Using the H  gamma gamma Decay” >Calculated by two different ways 1.Counting 2.Chi2 approximation

4. 4 Energy = 14 TeV N S = 35 N B = 5069 L=1 fb-1 Mediana = 0,905173 CL(chi2) = 82,929% CL(count.) = 82,78% ; error = 0,37% Reproducing Nansi’s work L=1 fb-1 Mediana = 0,894698 CL = 82,54% My resultsNansi’s results GenerationB Toys S+B Toys Mediana N.Andari HSG1 meeting 27-2-2009

5. 5 L=0.1 fb-1 Mediana=0,0522778 CL(chi2)=59,044% CL(count.)=58,62%, error = 0.49% Energy = 10 TeV N S = 2,03 N B = 350,28 Generation B Toys S+B Toys Mediana

6. 6 14 TeV Nansi’s work 14 TeV My work (reproduction Nansi’s work) 10 TeV My work

7. 7 2.-Exclusion at 95% CL as function of luminosity

8. 8 I’m going to reproduce the results to for 10 TeV Luminosi. (fb-1) Times Standard Model Cross Section 0.146810 0.22468 0.53456 5 123 100.5123 m H 120 (GeV/c2) Center of Mass Energy 10 TeV We want to solve the next question: How many times SM cross section could be exclude at 95% C.L? Plot from “Center of mass energy Scan for H -> Gamma Gamma Analysis” 03/20/09 HSG1 Meeting H.Wang,P.Bernat,Y.Fang,Y.Pan,S.L.Wu Work’s conditions

9. 9 0.1fb-1 10TeV 4SM Mediana=0,693484 CL=79,749% B toys 6SM Mediana=1,49205 CL=88,904% B toys 8SM Mediana=2,56306 CL=94,530% B toys 10SM Mediana=3,87433 CL=97,548% B toys

10. 10 8,30 SM (aprox.)

11. 11 0.2fb-1 10TeV 2SM Mediana=0,372105 CL=72,905% B toys 4SM Mediana=1,37962 CL=87,991% B toys 6SM Mediana=2,97866 CL=95,781% B toys 8SM Mediana=5,1045 CL=98,807% B toys

12. 12 5,80 SM (aprox.)

13. 13 10fb-1 10TeV 0.5SM Mediana=1,10543 CL=85,34% B toys 1SM Mediana=4,35213 CL=98,15% B toys 2SM Mediana=17,0984 CL=99,99% B toys 3SM Mediana=37,8691 CL=100% B toys

14. 14 0,90 SM (aprox.)

15. 15 Lumi. (fb-1) 0.10.20.51510 Times SM 8.305.803.30----1.300.90 Times SM ----6.694.162.921.290.91 My results Results from article: “HSG1 Work Plan for Early Data” https://twiki.cern.ch/twiki/pub/AtlasProtected/HiggsGamGam/HSG1EarlyData.pdf >Different values for lower luminosities >Similar values for higher luminosities

16. 16 3.-Exclusion at 95% CL as function of mH

17. 17 For this work I’m looking for Producing this kind of plot for ATLAS early data. m H (GeV/c2) Times Standard Model Cross Section 120 2468 130 140 Luminosity 0.2 fb-1 Center of Mass Energy 10 TeV My work’s conditions We want to estimate how many times SM cross section could be exclude at 95% CL, considerer the possible uncertainty (1sigma, 2sigma) With this Times SM cross section I just to obtain values for +1sigma and +2sigma, like we’ll see.. For this work I’m looking for Producing this kind of plot for ATLAS early data.

18. 18 m H =120GeV/c2 B toys,2SM Chi2 function Median=0.3721 Median+1sigma=1.5096 Median+2sigma=2.6297 B toys,4SM Chi2 function Median=1.3796 Median+1sigma=3.6092 Median+2sigma=5.7964 B toys,6SM Chi2 function Median=2.9786 Median+1sigma=6.2566 Median-1sigma=0.5757 Median+2sigma=9.4618 B toys,8SM Chi2 function Median=5.1045 Median+1sigma=9.3934 Median-1sigma=1.6968 Median+2sigma=13.5679

19. 19 2.103.505.80 CL by median CL by median+1sigma CL by median+2sigma m H =120GeV/c2

20. 20 m H =130GeV/c2 B toys,2SM Chi2 function Median=0.3611 Median+1sigma=1.5167 Median+2sigma=2.6755 B toys,4SM Chi2 function Median=1.3798 Median+1sigma=3.634 Median+2sigma=5.8756 B toys,6SM Chi2 function Median=2.9934 Median+1sigma=6.2898 Median-1sigma=0.5451 Median+2sigma=9.5857 B toys,8SM Chi2 function Median=5.1279 Median+1sigma=9.4057 Median-1sigma=1.6462 Median+2sigma=13.6839

21. 21 2.03.405.80 CL by median CL by median+1sigma CL by median+2sigma m H =130GeV/c2

22. 22 m H =140GeV/c2 B toys,2SM Chi2 function Median=0.2973 Median+1sigma=1.3715 Median+2sigma=2.4015 B toys,4SM Chi2 function Median=1.4046 Median+1sigma=3.2322 Median-1sigma=0.0062 Median+2sigma=5.2363 B toys,6SM Chi2 function Median=2.4912 Median+1sigma=5.5451 Median-1sigma=0.3507 Median+2sigma=8.4923 B toys,8SM Chi2 function Median=4.3063 Median+1sigma=8.2797 Median-1sigma=1.1997 Median+2sigma=12.0775

23. 23 2.403.70 6.40 CL by median CL by median+1sigma CL by median+2sigma m H =140GeV/c2

24. 24 by median by median+1sigma by median+2sigma

25. 25 We need to use higher values for SM cross section to have the limits for -1sigma and -2sigma m H (GeV/c2) Times Standard Model Cross Section 120 10121416 130 140 Luminosity 0.2 fb-1 Center of Mass Energy 10 TeV New work’s conditions to get the limits for -1sigma and -2sigma (WORK IN PROGRESS) by median by median+1sigma by median+2sigma

26. 26 BACKUP

27. 27 Energy = 14 TeV N S = 17 N B = 2534 L=0.5 fb-1 Mediana = 0,419937 CL(chi2) = 74,149% CL(count.) = 74,33% ; error = 0,43% Reproducing Nansi’s work L=0.5 fb-1 Mediana = 0,434293 CL(chi2) = 74,5% CL(count.) = 74,88% My resultsNansi’s results Generation B Toys S+B Toys Mediana

28. 28 L=0.5 fb-1 Mediana=0,220569 CL(chi2)=68,067% CL(count.)=67,24% ; error=0,46% Energy = 10 TeV N S = 10,15 N B = 1751,43 Generation B Toys S+B Toys Mediana From now new work

29. 29 L=0.2 fb-1 Mediana=0,10296 CL(chi2)=62,583% CL(count.)=62,36%, error = 0.48% Energy = 10 TeV N S = 4,06 N B = 700,57 Generation B Toys S+B Toys Mediana

30. 30 5fb-1 10TeV 0.5SM Mediana=0,573653 CL=77,55% B toys 1SM Mediana=2,22127 CL=93,19% B toys 2SM Mediana=8,6434 CL=99,83% B toys 3SM Mediana=7,3407 CL=99,6629% B toys

31. 31 1,30 SM (aprox.)

32. 32 0.5fb-1 10TeV 3SM Mediana=2,6178 CL=94,7165% B toys 3SM Mediana=2,6052 CL=94,674% B toys 4SM Mediana=3,3830 CL=96,7065% B toys 5SM Mediana=5,1835 CL=98,8602% B toys 6SM Mediana=7,3407 CL=99,6629% B toys

33. 33 3,30 SM (aprox.)