1. CariCOF Climate Outlook April-May-June 2016 and July-August-September 2016 Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck caricof@cimh.edu.bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

2. Regional Climate Outlook Forums CariCOF - FCAC 2 CariCOF FCAC

3. RAINFALL caricof@cimh.edu.bb

4. AMJ RAINFALL O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

5. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ rainfall forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb(data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb AMJ Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ(data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). AMJ. 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

6. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes:4Initial :468Values : 20Index : 0.094 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 429Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index :0.102 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 2Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 1 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.144 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 430Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.115 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 430Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

7. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes:1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.119 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 1 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes:4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.084 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 430Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! NMMEY modes : 8 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5 Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.105 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 430Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 6 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

8. JAS RAINFALL 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

9. JAS CPT probabilistic JAS rainfall forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb(data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb JAS Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). JAS 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS. JAS 5.Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JAS Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). JAS 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

10. JAS CPT probabilistic JAS Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial :468Values : 20Index : 0.133 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 423Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes :5 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes:2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.133 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 423Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes:2Initial : 468Values : 20Index :0.254 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 427Stations : 10Fair CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 2 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.201 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 427Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 2 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

11. CPT probabilistic JAS Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes:1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.119 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 1 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.247 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 2Used : 427Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 2 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes:1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.249 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 427Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 1 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

12. CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April-May-June 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

13. CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2016

14. PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS caricof@cimh.edu.bb

15. Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts Nine data sources (incl. GPCs): 1)IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance); 2)UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast; 3)European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts; 4)APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi=model probability forecasts; 5)WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME. 6)CFSv2 model 7)MétéoFrance Arpège model. 8)JMA model 9)Environment Canada CMC model Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T 2m outlooks (see Appendix). Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise: 1)El Niño has peaked in November 2015 and has weakened to borderline strong near the end of March (Niño 3.4 SST anom. ~1.5°C). Most models suggest a rapidly weakening El Niño, likely disappearing by MJJ 2016, with an estimated overall confidence of El Niño 75-80% for AMJ, with only 10-15% probability for remaining in El Niño by JAS, versus 40-50% for both neutral and La Niña. In the Tropical North Atlantic, which should be warmer than average towards the end of an El Niño, SSTs are above average to the north of the Caribbean Islands. However, temperatures in the southern Caribbean Sea and eastwards in the North Atlantic are near-average due to stronger than average trade winds. Those temperatures are expected to warm somewhat into AMJ. However, around the equator and west of Africa, a cold anomaly will likely manifest. 2)Initially (April), El Niño is expected to sustain increased vertical wind shear and subsidence over the southern and eastern Caribbean, which weakens deep convection. This pattern will fade away swiftly. Warm SSTs north and east of the islands may lead to above-average air moisture in the islands for AMJ and JAS in the north, and for AMJ in the east. However, perhaps because of the cooling in the Atlantic around the equator and west of Africa during JAS, a pattern of drier air may be observed to reach into the Eastern Caribbean. 3)Most global models are suggesting a shift to above-normal rainfall for much of the region in AMJ. By contrast, a shift to below-normal rainfall is expected further in the east during JAS.

16. Probabilistic AMJ rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh.edu.bb

17. Probabilistic JAS rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh.edu.bb

18. 2M MEAN TEMPERATURE caricof@cimh.edu.bb

19. AMJ TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

20. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. AMJ Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

21. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial :73Values : 20Index : 0.228 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 51Stations : 10Moderate ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.149 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 1Used : 51Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 2 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.245 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.250 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

22. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.145 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 3Used : 51Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.245 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.255 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 50Stations : 10Fair NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

23. JAS TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

24. JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. JAS Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). JAS 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS. JAS 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JAS Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). JAS 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

25. JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial :73Values : 20Index : 0.142 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 51Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.172 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 51Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.248 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 49Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5 Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.235 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 49Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

26. MJJ CPT probabilistic MJJ 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.145 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 3Used : 51Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.255 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 49Stations : 10Fair NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : 0.245 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 49Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 7 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

27. CariCOF Objective Mean T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April-May-June 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

28. CariCOF Objective Mean T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

29. TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS caricof@cimh.edu.bb

30. Probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh.edu.bb

31. Probabilistic JAS 2m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh.edu.bb

32. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM 2M TEMPERATURE caricof@cimh.edu.bb

33. AMJ MAX. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

34. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. AMJ Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

35. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5 Initial :49Values : 20Index : 0.142 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 6 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.119 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 2 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.199 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 37Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.210 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

36. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.045 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5 Used : 39Stations : 10 ! Very Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.208 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.249 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 7 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

37. JAS MAX. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

38. JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. JAS Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). JAS 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS. JAS 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JAS Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). JAS 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

39. JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial :49Values : 20Index : 0.191 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.122 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.250 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 37Stations : 10Fair CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.226 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

40. JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.045 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5 Used : 39Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.261 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 37Stations : 10Fair NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.254 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 37Stations : 10Fair NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

41. CariCOF Objective Maximum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April-May-June 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

42. CariCOF Objective Maximum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

43. Probabilistic AMJ 2m Maximum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh.edu.bb

44. Probabilistic JAS 2m Maximum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh.edu.bb

45. AMJ MIN. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

46. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. AMJ Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

47. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial :49Values : 20Index : 0.164 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 40Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 6 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.100 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 40Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.136 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.186 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 6 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

48. AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.073 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 40Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.162 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.194 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 7 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

49. JAS MIN. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh.edu.bb

50. JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. JAS Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). JAS 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS. JAS 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JAS Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). JAS 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS. caricof@cimh.edu.bb

51. JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial :49Values : 20Index : 0.076 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 39Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.092 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 39Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.120 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.163 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

52. JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.073 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 40Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.154 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 7 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 49Values : 20Index : 0.165 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes :6Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 2 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

53. CariCOF Objective Minimum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April-May-June 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

54. CariCOF Objective Minimum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2016 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

55. Probabilistic AMJ 2m Minimum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh.edu.bb

56. Probabilistic JAs 2m Minimum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh.edu.bb

57. DROUGHT OUTLOOK caricof@cimh.edu.bb

58. JFMAMJ caricof@cimh.edu.bb DROUGHT OUTLOOK

59. JFMAMJ CPT probabilistic JFMAMJ CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. MAMA 3.Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over MAMA (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh.edu.bb

60. JFMAMJ CPT probabilistic JFMAMJ Drought forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.045 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 428Stations : 10 !! Very Limited !! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.091 90-20W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 2Used : 428Stations : 10 !! Very Limited !! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 1 Experiment 3CCA modes: 3 Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.097 100-40W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 3Used : 428Stations : 10 !! Very Limited !! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

61. JJASONDFJMAM 2015-16 caricof@cimh.edu.bb DROUGHT OUTLOOK

62. JJASONDJFMAM CPT probabilistic JJASONDJFMAM CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh.edu.bb

63. JJASONDJFMAM CPT probabilistic JJASONDJFMAM Drought forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 468Values : 20Index : 0.065 140E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 408Stations : 10 !! Very Limited !! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh.edu.bb

64. CariCOF Drought Outlook By the end of June 2016 Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck caricof@cimh.edu.bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

65. Drought Outlook January to June Drought Outlook January to June Areas under immediate drought concern? caricof@cimh.edu.bb Current Outlook Previous Outlook March 2016 Current update (March 2016): Drought concern is noted in Antigua, west- central Belize and from Saint Vincent southward A drought warning is issued for ABC Islands.

66. caricof@cimh.edu.bb RAISE AWARENESS & CONSERVE WATER!! Current Current drought situation (up to the end of February 2016): (more information here)here – Because of below-normal rainfall during 2015, water shortages occur in many portions of the Antilles, notably Barbados, Haïti, St. Lucia and many of the Leewards. – Nearly all island nations are in longer-term drought (except Bahamas; no data for Cuba and Hispaniola). – However, a failure of the secondary wet season in the Guianas has led to short-term drought. Shorter-term Shorter-term (till June 2016): – We expect that a shorter-term drought situation may persist from the ABC Islands eastward to Saint Vincent and southward into the western. Longer-term Longer-term (beyond May 2016): – El Niño has peaked in strength last November and is slowly weakening. – The El Niño results in a drier early part of the year in the Lesser Antilles and a failure of the secondary wet season in the northern Guianas. This leads to drought concerns towards the end of the Caribbean dry season (i.e. May 31). – In the islands, the wet season may start up to one month earlier than usual, when longer-term drought recovery is expected for Barbados, Cayman, central Hispaniola, Jamaica, Leewards, Trinidad & Tobago, US C’bean Terr. and Windwards. – El Niño will possibly be replaced by a La Niña by the end of the year. This evolution should finally bring drought relief to the region, but may tilt the odds towards increased flash flood potential. Drought outlook Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern?

67. Long-term drought outlook Long-term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the Caribbean dry season (May 31 st, 2016)? caricof@cimh.edu.bb February 2016 This 12-month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations until February 2016, with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12-month SPI is ≤-0.8 (moderately dry or worse – ref.: CDPMN). Impactful hydrological drought by the end of the dry season (May 31 st ) is a concern across the Antilles (no data available for Cuba, Hispaniola, Martinique), SW Belize and the Guianas. A drought emergency is issued for the ABC Islands and Antigua. A drought warning is issued for the remainder of the Antilles except Dominica, as well as SW Belize. A drought watch is also issued for Cayman, Dominica and the Guianas. Previous Outlook Current Outlook

68. ALERT LEVELMEANINGACTION LEVEL NO CONCERNNO CONCERN No drought concern monitor resources update and ratify management plans public awareness campaigns upgrade infrastructure DROUGHT WATCHDROUGHT WATCH Drought possible keep updated protect resources and conserve water implement management plans response training monitor and repair infrastructure DROUGHT WARNINGDROUGHT WARNING Drought evolving protect resources conserve and recycle water implement management plans release public service announcements last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades report impacts DROUGHT EMERGENCY Drought of immediate concern release public service announcements implement management and response plans enforce water restrictions and recycling enforce resource protection repair infrastructure report impacts caricof@cimh.edu.bb

69. Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – wet days and wet spells outlooks April to June 2016 Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK 1, Wazita Scott 1, Dr. Simon MASON 2, Ángel MUÑOZ 2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 2, Dale Destin 3 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA 3 Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services

70. caricof@cimh.edu.bb Wet day frequency shifts Forecast for: April to June 2016 USUALLY: Number of wet days is low in April, and usually increases in May and June. FORECAST: AMJ rainfall in the Caribbean is likely to be above- to normal across the Caribbean, with more wet days (medium confidence) in the Eastern Caribbean, especially in May and June. IMPLICATION: Decreasing surface dryness; increasing number of days with disrupted outdoor activities; limited to no recharge of water reservoirs until April.

71. caricof@cimh.edu.bb Wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: April to June 2016 USUALLY: Number of wet spells is very low in April in eastern Caribbean, and increases in most places in May and June. FORECAST: AMJ rainfall in the Caribbean is likely to be above- to normal across the Caribbean, with more wet days (medium confidence), more wet & very wet spells (medium to high confidence) in the Eastern Caribbean, especially in May and June. IMPLICATION: Increasing surface and soil wetness; good recharge of water reservoirs from May to June. AMJ 2015 frequency of 7-day very wet spells AMJ 2016 frequency of 7-day wet spells

72. USUALLY: Very few extreme wet spells occur in April, with a chance of generally up to 1-2 extreme wet spell in May & June. FORECAST: AMJ rainfall in the Caribbean is likely to be above- to normal across the Caribbean, with more wet days (medium confidence), more wet & very wet spells (medium to high confidence), more extreme wet spells (medium confidence) in the Eastern Caribbean, especially in May and June. IMPLICATION: Limited flash flood potential up until April, but a marked increase from May. caricof@cimh.edu.bb MAM 2016 frequency of extreme (top 1%) 3-day wet spells Extreme wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: April to June 2016

73. No. of wet days No. of 7-day wet spells (20% wettest) No. of 7-day very wet spells (10% wettest) No. of 3-day extremely wet spells (1% wettest) ClimatologyForecastClimatologyForecastClimatologyForecastClimatologyForecast Antigua (VC Bird)18-3220-431.1-4.21.6-6.60.4-2.60.9-3.9 0-1.50-1.6 Aruba (Beatrix)4-94-140.4-1.70.2-2.50-1.30-1.6 0-10-0 Barbados (CIMH)18-3623-470.9-41.6-6.60.4-1.90.8-3.3 0-10-0.4 Barbados (GAIA)19-3725-470.9-41.6-6.80.3-2.61.2-3.9 0-10-1.3 Belize (C. Farm)17-2819-331.2-31.1-3.80.4-2.10.6-2.6 0-1 Cayman18-2915-292.1-3.91.3-4.20.9-2.60.6-3.4 0-10-1.3 Cuba (Punta Maisi)7-187-221.1-3.60.7-3.80.3-2.10-1.8 0-10-1.1 Dom. Republic (Las Americas)17-3218-381.7-4.91.8-70.6-3.40.9-5.1 0-1.20-2 Dominica (Canefield)27-4529-590.8-3.51.5-6.90-2.60.1-3.2 0-0.50-0 Dominica (Douglas Charles)41-6345-790.9-51.7-7.10.3-2.90.6-4.3 0-20-2.5 Grenada (MBIA)19-3524-471.3-3.62-6.40.3-2.21-3.5 0-10-0.6 Guyana_7326-4129-462.8-6.34-9.41.3-3.61.7-5.7 0-10-2.2 Guyana (Albion)37-5241-582.6-5.74-8.71.3-32.2-4.8 0-2 Guyana (Blairmont)43-5845-632.9-6.24.4-8.31.3-3.41.9-5.9 0-1.6 Guyana (Charity)34-5336-672.4-5.73-8.50.9-31.6-4.3 0-10-1.7 Guyana (Enmore)41-5446-612.6-5.64.3-9.41.3-31.3-4.1 0-1.40-1.3 Guyana (Georgetown)45-6049-652.8-6.44.7-9.11.3-3.61.5-5.3 0-10-1.3 Guyana (New Amsterdam)42-6146-673-6.14.5-8.31.5-3.92-5.6 0-20-1.9 Guyana (Skeldon)41-5745-623.2-6.44.3-9.21.1-3.91.9-6.4 0-10-1.5 Guyana (Timehri)48-6151-683-6.44.8-9.70.9-3.62-6 0-20-1.8 Guyana_Wales45-6051-662.9-6.24.7-9.71.1-4.31.4-6.1 0-20-1.9 Jamaica (Worthy Park)20-3722-472.1-5.12-6.10.9-30.8-4 0-20-1.8 Martinique (FDF Desaix)34-5137-631.3-3.62.1-6.30.4-2.10.8-3.4 0-10-1.5 Puerto Rico (San Juan)25-4227-511.7-4.91.9-6.70.9-3.91-5.1 0-20-2.1 St. Lucia (Hewanorra)24-4328-551.1-4.31.9-6.80.3-2.10.7-3.2 0-1 St. Maarten (TNCM)22-3423-371.3-3.61.7-50.4-2.10.7-3.1 0-10-0.7 St. Vincent (ET Joshua)33-5838-681.1-41.6-6.30.4-2.10.9-3.6 0-1 Suriname (Zanderij)56-6958-733.4-74.6-101.7-4.32-5.7 0-20-2.1 Tobago (ANR Robinson)27-4432-551.3-42.7-7.30.4-1.91-3.3 0-10-1.5 Trinidad (Piarco)22-3626-451.3-3.62.4-70.4-2.31-3.6 0-10-1.7 caricof@cimh.edu.bb April to June 2016 brown is a decrease in frequency,dark blue an increase, grey none are expected

74. APPENDIX caricof@cimh.edu.bb

75. US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/fige1.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/fige3.shtml caricof@cimh.edu.bb

76. US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt5.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt18.shtml caricof@cimh.edu.bb

77. NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml caricof@cimh.edu.bb

78. Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=585&PageID=0&cached=true&mode=2&userID=2 caricof@cimh.edu.bb Caribbean & tropical Atlantic El Niño region

79. Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=585&PageID=0&cached=true&mode=2&userID=2 caricof@cimh.edu.bb Caribbean & tropical Atlantic El Niño region

80. Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted Tropical SSTs http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/sea-surface-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast caricof@cimh.edu.bb

81. US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif caricof@cimh.edu.bb

82. Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ caricof@cimh.edu.bb

83. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2013-december-quick-look/ caricof@cimh.edu.bb

84. IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ caricof@cimh.edu.bb

85. EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/ caricof@cimh.edu.bb

86. ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/rain-public-charts-long-range- forecast?time=2015100100,5088,2016043000&area=Tropics&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20summary caricof@cimh.edu.bb

87. UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob caricof@cimh.edu.bb

88. NOAA CPC – probabilistic rainfall forecast http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cfsv2/camerica_prec_prob2.shtml caricof@cimh.edu.bb

89. APCC – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/6mon/ps/japcc030703.jsp caricof@cimh.edu.bb

90. Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier caricof@cimh.edu.bb

91. Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3-mon/fcst/fcst_gl.php caricof@cimh.edu.bb

92. Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast caricof@cimh.edu.bb AMJ 2015 (0.5 month lead) JAS 2016 (3.5 month lead)

93. IRI – multi-model probabilistic T 2m forecast http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ caricof@cimh.edu.bb

94. EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic T 2m forecast http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/eurosip/group_euro_public/seasonal_charts_rain!rain!te rcile%20summary!1%20month!Tropics!201310!/ caricof@cimh.edu.bb

95. ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T 2m forecast http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/2m-temperature-public-charts-long-range- forecast?time=2015100100,3624,2016022900&area=Tropics&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20summary caricof@cimh.edu.bb

96. UK Met Office – probabilistic T 2m forecast http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob caricof@cimh.edu.bb

97. APCC – multi-model probabilistic T 2m forecast http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/6mon/ps/japcc030703.jsp caricof@cimh.edu.bb

98. Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T 2m forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier caricof@cimh.edu.bb

99. Japan Met Agency - probabilistic T 2m forecast http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3-mon/fcst/fcst_gl.php caricof@cimh.edu.bb

100. Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic T 2m forecast caricof@cimh.edu.bb MAM 2016 (0.5 month lead) JJA 2016 (3.5 month lead)

101. caricof@cimh.edu.bb rcc.cimh.edu.bb Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology TEL: (246) 425-1362/3 | FAX: (246) 424-4733