1. Feedback from CEM Assessments: Individual Pupil Records & Predictions Belfast, March 6 th 2013 Neil Defty Business & Development Manager CEM Neil@cem.dur.ac.uk

2. To inform professional judgement To start a conversation Baseline Assessment Data

3. USING BASELINE DATA FOR TEACHING AND LEARNING IF FEEDBACK DATA IS TO BE TRUSTED THEN PROBABLY: The students understood the purpose of the assessments And each student did their best at the time……. As a year group, how able are they? What strengths and weaknesses does the group have? How did each student perform?

4. Bands, percentiles, standardised scores… Standardised scores D C B A 105203014090958070996050 Percentiles: 2575

5. Alis: year 12 students, two baseline profiles for the same school Nationally, 25% in each band

7. Band Profile Graph: all MidYIS cohort Checking this graph each year will give you an immediate overview of your intake. A school with a ‘completely average’ intake would have 25% of pupils within each band. Band DBand A

8. Band D

10. On another day, with 95% certainty, the score of 100.6 (+/- 1.1 x 2) would not be higher than 100.6 + 2.2 = 102.8 would not be lower than 100.6 – 2.2 = 98.4

13. (See www.cem.org/midyisiprbooklet for report: “Using MidYIS Individual Pupil Records to Inform Teaching and Learning”) www.cem.org/midyisiprbooklet To start a conversation Individual Pupil Records (IPRs)

16. INSIGHT Pupil IPR

17. IPRs in KS3 Levels NATIONAL AVERAGE

20. The code: j: reduces size k: infills m: inverts

21. “Predictions”

22. BASELINE SCORE GRADE * ** *** ******************* * ** *** ******************************** * ** *** ********************************* *** ** * * ** *** ************************************ *** ** * * ** *** ******************************** **** ** * * ** ***************************** *** ** * * ** *** ******************* ** * * * ** *********** ** * How is a ‘prediction’ generated? C A* A B 50 100 150

23. 3 key points are: The higher the baseline score the higher the final grade Any one grade is achievable from a range of baseline scores From any baseline score, a range of grades are possible

24. BASELINE SCORE GRADE * ** *** ******************* * ** *** ******************************** * ** *** ********************************* *** ** * * ** *** ************************************ *** ** * * ** *** ******************************** **** ** * * ** ***************************** *** ** * * ** *** ******************* ** * * * ** *********** ** * Subject National trend line (regression line) How is a ‘prediction’ generated? 50% on or above the trend line 50% on or below the trend line ‘PREDICTION’ (expected grade) C A* A B

26. ‘Predictions’…...are based on Average performance by similar pupils in past examinations The problem with the word ‘prediction’ is…? An alternative is ‘expected’ grade

27. Predictions 4 points = D 6.6 points = A/B Trend line

28. FACTORS THAT WILL INFLUENCE RELIABILITY OF PREDICTIONS: Knowledge of student Parental support/home life Peer influences/social life Student attitude, interest, language Expectations of staff Department/institution ethos Resources Quality of teaching and learning: pace of lessons Understanding how children learn……… And the reliability of the predictions......

29. 29 Correlation = 1 Result

30. Correlation = 0 Correlation = 0.7

31. The graph below shows the middle 2/3 of some subject trend lines

32. Prediction/expected grade: 5.1 grade C Most likely grade

33. Not a label for life...just another piece of information The Chances graphs show that, from almost any baseline score, students come up with almost any grade - - -there are just different probabilities for each grade depending on the baseline score. In working with students these graphs are more useful than a single predicted or target grade Chances graphs show what can be achieved: –By students of similar ability –By students with lower baseline scores

34. to place school at 75 th percentile of value added results

36. Or insert own values and click Adjust

39. Prediction/expected grade: 6.4 grade A/B Most likely grade