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Silver Market Trends and Price Outlook Philip Newman 13 th India International Gold Convention, Agra 13 th August 2016
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2016: Over 40% year-to-date gains Source: Bloomberg
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Global supply: Changes forecast for 2016 Source: Metals Focus
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Global demand: Changes forecast for 2016 Source: Metals Focus.
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Dramatic rise in both silver and gold ETFs this year Source: Bloomberg
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Rising investment demand in Comex silver futures Source: Bloomberg
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Silver price forecast: 2016, $17.30, +10% year-on-year Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg
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Disclaimer & Copyright Although every effort has been made to undertake this work with care and diligence, Metals Focus Ltd cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or assumptions. Nothing contained in this presentation constitutes an offer to buy or sell securities or commodities and nor does it constitute advice in relation to the buying or selling of investments. It is published only for informational purposes. Metals Focus Ltd does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this presentation. Tel: +44 20 3301 6510 Email: info@metalsfocus.com Bloomberg chat: IB MFOCUS www.metalsfocus.com For information about our products and services please contact:
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Record high mine production of 27,408t in 2015 Source: Metals Focus China, 3,505t, -6% Australia, 1,373t, -26% Russia, 1,583t +10% India, 374t, +43% US, 1,090t -18% Canada, 369t -22% Mexico 5,824t, +1% Peru, 4,102t +9% Argentina, 1,084t +20% Sweden, 494t +25%
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Scrap supply: Major drop in recent years Source: Metals Focus
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OUTSTANDING INVESTMENT GRADE SOVEREIGN BOND DISTRIBUTION BY REAL YIELD* *As of 23/05/16: Sovereign Debt from Australia, Canada, Denmark, Euro Area (investment grade), Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA (nominal rates adjusted by respective CPI inflation rates) Source: WGC Interest rates on investment grade government debt have collapsed, much of it now with negative yields in real terms
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Source: Metals Focus Mine production: 2010-16, +3,655t, average 2.5% p.a.
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Global demand, 2015 Source: Metals Focus
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India bullion imports – record high in 2015, 7,500t Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce 2013-15: Total imports: 20,000t
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Jewellery demand: Changes forecast for 2016 * Europe & North America Source: Metals Focus
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Mine production by primary source metal Breakdown of mine production in 2015Year-on-year change in 2015, tonnes
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Global supply, 2015 Source: Metals Focus
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Industrial demand: Changes forecast for 2016 Source: Metals Focus
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Industrial Demand 2010-16F Source: Metals Focus, IMF
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Silver Fabrication Demand 2010-16F Source: Metals Focus
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Physical investment: Changes forecast for 2016 Source: Metals Focus
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Expectations of US Fed tightening have fallen this year * A proxy for interest rate expectations in 1-year Source: Bloomberg
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Silver price versus US dollar index Source: Bloomberg
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