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CSLI Survey Spring 2016 Presented to Public Relations Society of America April 20, 2016
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CSLI Sping 2016 Survey - Overview Administered March 25-April 1 566 completions 310 Telephone – 6-8:45 p.m. 256 Online – Web panel Margin of error: 4% 64 students as telephone interviewers, 3 interns monitoring and supervising the field work 67 questions – completed both by public and students
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CSLI Spring 2016 Survey - Overview Main areas County’s most important problem Media – information about state and local Mood of the County − Right/wrong direction − Job approval of national, state and local officials Politics − Trust in parties − Presidential candidate choice Demographics Issues vs. character Personality − Economic conditions and candidate choice − Public policy proposals - agreement
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County: Most Important Question? Spring ‘08 to Spring ‘16
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Information Sources: State and Local Overall (“A lot” + “Somewhat”) % Television programming or nightly news 82 Radio broadcasts or news 71 Newspapers or news magazines either print or online 69 Other online sources 52 Social media like Facebook or Twitter 42
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Media Use by Income, Gender, Education
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Trust in Various Media Types
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Trust in Various Media Types by Age
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Trust in Media Types by Income, Gender, Education
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Most Trustworthy News Sources TV Cases FOX42 CNN37 NBC (wbal) 25 BBC18 MSNBC15 Radio Cases NPR42 WTOP8 680AM4 WAMU2 WYPR2 Newpapers Cases WASH. POST42 CAPITAL/GAZETTE39 NY TIMES22 BALT. SUN16 WSJ13 Social Media Cases TWITTER2 AAPD1 FACEBOOK1 SM GEN.1 Online Cases MSN5 ONLINE GEN.5 CNN.COM3 HUFF. POST3 GOOGLE NEWS2
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Mood of the County Right/wrong direction Economic Conditions Job Approval – County Executive, Governor, President
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Right/Wrong Direction: County, State, Nation - Fall ‘12 to Spring ‘16 24 10 27 23 27 21 36 35 31 27 47 52 50 49 50 49 58 51 55 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Fall '12Spring '13Fall '13Spring '14Fall '14Spring '15Fall '15Spring '16 NationStateCounty State direction Hogan Approve Hogan Disapprove Right 5828 Wrong2561 Unsure1711 Total100 Nation direction Obama Approve Obama Disapprove Right 433 Wrong3991 Unsure186 Total100
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Economic Conditions: County, State, Nation – % Excellent+Good - Spring 2009 to Spring 2016
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Job Approval: Hogan, Schuh, Obama
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Job Approval: Obama – CSLI/Gallup
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Politics − Trust in parties − Presidential candidate choice Demographics Issues vs. character Personality − Economic conditions and candidate choice − Public policy proposals - agreement
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Trust in Political Parties
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Candidate Preference - President DemocratsRepublicansUnaffiliated Democrats Fall 2015Spring 2016 Fall 2015Spring 2016 Fall 2015Spring 2016 Hillary Clinton 34 47 ( 60 %) 131519 Bernie Sanders 27 28 ( 40 % 322126 Republicans Ben Carson 8--32--13-- Ted Cruz 023 16 ( 22 %) 26 Carly Fiorina 3--5 8 John Kasich 414 22 ( 29 %) 59 Marco Rubio 1--13--5 Donald Trump 7621 34 ( 49 %) 1713 Others/None 161518241426 Monmouth Poll of MD: Trump 47%, Kasich 27%, Cruz 17%. NBC/Marist poll Clinton 58% Sanders 36%
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Hypothetical Trump vs. Clinton Match-up OverallDemsRepUnaffiliat ed Donald Trump 35 ( 43 %) 117028 Hillary Clinton 46 ( 57 %) 761146 Neither or third party 1481321 No answer 5565 Total 100
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Candidate Preference by Party Registration and Ideology
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Demographics and Candidate Choice: AGE
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Demographics and Candidate Choice: Gender
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Demographics and Candidate Choice: Education
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Demographics and Candidate Choice: Income Groups
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Issues and Democratic Candidates
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Character and Democratic Candidates
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Issues and Republican Candidates
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Character and Republican Candidates
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Personality and Politics First term12345Second term Kind 63251011Unkind Hardworking 6225832Lazy Sympathetic 52281342Unsympathetic Tolerant 47281843Intolerant Neat 41281993Sloppy An intellectual 39331935Not an intellectual Outgoing 382720114Shy Calm 38322073Nervous Philosophical 37332344Unreflective Extroverted 312624119Introverted Relaxed 312628115Tense
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Personality and Politics: Agreeableness, Conscientiousness
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Personality and Politics: Tolerance
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Personality and Politics: Emotional Stability and Openness to Experience
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Personality and Politics: Extroversion
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Economic Conditions: % Saying Applies
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Economic Conditions - Applies Condition PublicStudents Public- Stds Taxes are too high in relation to the govt. services provided 59581 Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living 584711 Hard to afford the cost of education 3944-5 Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate 3840-2 Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently 32311 Hard to afford the cost of food and groceries 30255 Found a new or better job recently 1020-10 Facing the possibility of unemployment 911-2
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Economic Conditions and Candidates ConditionClintonSanders CruzKasichTrumpAverage Hard to afford cost of food and groceries 2220 45135130 Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate 2838 36 5739 Hard to afford the cost of education 2957 38333839 Taxes are too high in relation to the government services provided 4437 75657058 Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living 4964 65516960 Facing the possibility of unemployment 717 8 611 Found a new or better job recently 1012 1510611 Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently 2945 38412335
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Proposal Agreement Public StudentsPublic- Stds Maintain the current ban on roadside panhandling by all nonprofit groups 71 5120 Provide body cameras to all local police. 69 636 Start the school year after Labor Day rather than before. 65 4916 Reduce the time devoted to state-required testing of students in public schools. 59 527 Replace the school board nominating commission by an elected school board. 57 489 President Obama and the Senate should take action now to fill the vacancy on the US Supreme Court, rather than wait until next year. 57 543 A law making it possible for severely ill individuals to get a doctor’s prescription that can help end their lives. 50 3911 Reduce the significance of state-required test results as a part of teacher evaluations. 50 437 Raise the federal minimum wage to $15 over the next few years. 47 48 Federal support providing free tuition for community college and public universities. 45 52-7 Always include at least one African-American on the county’s school board. 39 44-5 A law allowing felons to vote before finishing with probation or parole rather than after. 18 17
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Proposal Agreement Voter Choices Public HCBSTCJKDT Maintain the current ban on roadside panhandling by all nonprofit groups 71 6959748666 Provide body cameras to all local police. 69 7378517259 Start the school year after Labor Day rather than before. 65 6443806276 Reduce the time devoted to state-required testing of students in public schools. 59 5273585364 Replace the school board nominating commission by an elected school board. 57 4550785267 President Obama and the Senate should take action now to fill the vacancy on the US Supreme Court, rather than wait until next year. 57 8991174826 A law making it possible for severely ill individuals to get a doctor’s prescription that can help end their lives. 50 5970235640 Reduce the significance of state-required test results as a part of teacher evaluations. 50 4965254261 Raise the federal minimum wage to $15 over the next few years. 47 7371152722 Federal support providing free tuition for community college and public universities. 45 5770122227 Always include at least one African-American on the county’s school board. 39 5650262025 A law allowing felons to vote before finishing with probation or parole rather than after. 18 3336382
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