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Real Client Managed Portfolio Air Lease Corporation October 20, 2016 Presented by Jiaze Li and Di Liu
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation 1 Agenda Introduction Macroeconomic Overview Relevant Stock Market Prospects Financial Analysis of Past Performance Financial Projections Company and its Business Valuation Analysis Recent News Recommendation
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Introduction Current Holding Company ticker: AL (NYSE) Initial Purchased: 400 shares @ $22.32 on Dec 12, 2012 Current stock price: $29.78 on Oct 19, 2016 Weight in portfolio: 9% of invested holdings (without cash), 3% of invested holdings (with cash) Stock capital gain: 33% 2
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation 3 Agenda Introduction Macroeconomic Overview Relevant Stock Market Prospects Financial Analysis of Past Performance Financial Projections Company and its Business Valuation Analysis Recent News Recommendation
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Company overview Foundation background: founded in 2010 by aircraft leasing industry pioneer, Steven F. Udvar-Házy. IPO Year: 2011 Industry: Rental & Leasing Services Headquarters: Los Angeles, California CEO: John L. Plueger (Jul 1, 2016–) Major Competitors: AerCap Holdings(AER), FLY Leasing Limited(FLY), and Aircastle LTD(AYR) Market Capitalizations: 3.06 Billion Source: Bloomberg & 10-K Company and its Business 4
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Business model Company and its Business 5 Purchase new commercial aircrafts from aircraft manufacture Air Lease Corporation Lease to airlines Sell aircrafts to third parties Fleet Managemen t Services Source: Air Lease 10-K, 10-Q
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Diversification of operating lease portfolio Enter into a lease agreement 18 to 36 months in advance of the delivery of a new aircraft; sign a follow-on lease six to 12 months ahead of the scheduled expiry of the initial lease term. (2) Aircraft Leasing Strategy Main Strategy Main strategy: maintain a portfolio of high demand young aircraft with a widely diversified customer base Company and its Business (1) Aircraft Acquisition Strategy Purchase most highly in demand, widely distributed, modern technology, fuel efficient narrowbody and widebody commercial jet transport aircraft. Prior to ordering new aircraft directly from manufacturers. Deliver aircraft components separately 6
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Provide fleet management services to third party investors and owners of aircraft portfolios for a management fee. (4) Aircraft Management Strategy Company and its Business (3) Aircraft Sales & Trading Strategy Sell the aircraft when they near the end of the first third of their expected 25 year economic useful lives. We also buy and sell aircraft on an opportunistic basis for trading profits. 7 Source: Air Lease 10-K, 10-Q
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation OPERATING LEASE PORTFOLIO Company and its Business Fleet size and portfolio Weighted average lease term remaining of operating lease portfolio: 7.2 years MANUFACTURERS 8 Source: 10-Q 6/30/2016Growth rate12/31/2015Growth rate Owned fleet24510%24013% Managed fleet3338%2971%
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Company and its Business RENTAL REVENUE BREAKDOWN BY GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSIFICATION Have relationships with over 200 airlines across 70 countries.. 9 Source: 10-Q
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Unfavorable interest rate fluctuations Introduction of superior aircraft technology, a new line of aircraft or new aviation regulation Economic and political risk from emerging market THREAT STRENGTHS Widely diversified high demand and the youngest aircraft portfolio Widely diversified global customers Long term leases and short period gap between two leases for the same aircraft SWOT WEAKNESSES OPPORTUNITIES Few same size companies with same business model as AL in the industry. Expected continual high demand growth from emerging market Concentrated aircraft suppliers Not use derivatives tools to hedge volatile interest rate of large amount debt Unfavorable tax rate from widely jurisdictions 10
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Company and its Business 11 PORTER'S 5 FORCES
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation 12 Agenda Introduction Macroeconomic Overview Relevant Stock Market Prospects Financial Analysis of Past Performance Financial Projections Company and its Business Valuation Analysis Recent News Recommendation
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Source: Boeing Capital CorporationBoeing Capital Corporation 3. Leased aircraft growth rate increase 1. GDP growth rate expected to increase Macroeconomic Overview 2. Demand for air travel projected to increase Average annual growth in demand for next 20 years: World: 3.8% Emerging market: 4.8% Source: IATA 20-year passenger growth forecastIATA 20-year passenger growth forecast 13 Source: : IMF economic outlook 2016IMF economic outlook 2016
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation 4. Predicted yield on 10-year Treasury note increase: Macroeconomic Overview 5. Estimated Oil Price will increase and volatile: Generally going up January 20, 2016: $26.55/b (Thirteen year low) Average oil price in fall of 2016: $43/barrel Range of predicted oil price in December: $34/b to $65/b Source: IATA Jet Fuel Price DevelopmentIATA Jet Fuel Price Development 14 Estimated Value in 2017: 2.17%; Forecasted Value for 2022: 2.91% Source: IBIS World
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation 15 Agenda Introduction Macroeconomic Overview Relevant Stock Market Prospects Financial Analysis of Past Performance Financial Projections Company and its Business Valuation Analysis Recent News Recommendation
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Relevant Stock Market Prospects 16 Source: Yahoo! Finance
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation 17 Agenda Introduction Macroeconomic Overview Relevant Stock Market Prospects Financial Analysis of Past Performance Financial Projections Company and its Business Valuation Analysis Recent News Recommendation
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Stable Profit Margin and Solid ReturnHigh Leverage Ratio Financial Analysis Source: Bloomberg and Group Calculation Air Lease Profit Margin is around 20% historically Profit Margin is down because of high depreciation and interest expense Profit margin and ROA decline in 2015 Source: IBIS World Source: Bloomberg and Group Calculation Air Lease major financing source is debt financing LT Debt to Asset remains stable around 60% Coverage ratio increases because more aircrafts are deployed and generate revenue Coverage ratio declines in 2015 because of more debt financing for aircraft purchases Source: IBIS World 18
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation ROE Depends Heavily on Leverage DuPont Analysis 19 Source: Bloomberg and Group Calculation Tax and interest burden are stable Improving asset turnover because of efficient management Leverage is building up because the company is expanding its aircraft fleet through debt financing Source: IBIS World
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation 20 Agenda Introduction Macroeconomic Overview Relevant Stock Market Prospects Financial Analysis of Past Performance Financial Projections Company and its Business Valuation Analysis Recent News Recommendation
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Leasing Schedule and Revenue Assumptions Financial Projection 21
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Asset Projection and Assumptions Financial Projection 22
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation DCF Projection and Assumptions Financial Projection 23
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation 24 Agenda Introduction Macroeconomic Overview Relevant Stock Market Prospects Financial Analysis of Past Performance Financial Projections Company and its Business Valuation Analysis Recent News Recommendation
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Valuation Analysis COMPARABLE COMPANIES ANALYSIS 25 Multiples Target CompanyTickerEV/EBITP/EP/BVForward P/E Air Lease CorporationAL13.989.460.96 8.52 Comparable Companies AerCap HoldingsAER 14.10 7.93 0.906.84 FLY Leasing LimitedFLY 11.03 7.89 0.646.60 Aircastle LTDAYR 13.16 17.59 0.9010.04 Comparable Companies TrademarkBusiness Description AerCap Holdings Independent aircraft leasing company, engages in the leasing, financing, sale, and management of commercial aircraft and engines FLY Leasing Limited Purchasing and leasing commercial aircraft under multi-year contracts to various airlines worldwide. Aircastle LTD Acquires, leases, and sells commercial jet aircraft to airlines.
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Valuation Analysis COMPARABLE COMPANIES ANALYSIS 26
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation 27 Agenda Introduction Macroeconomic Overview Relevant Stock Market Prospects Financial Analysis of Past Performance Financial Projections Company and its Business Valuation Analysis Recent News Recommendation
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Recent News 28 10/18/2016: Air Lease Corporation Announces Placements of 12 New Airbus A321neo Aircraft with Vietnam Airlines 10/18/2016: Air Lease Corporation’s Corporate Credit Rating Upgraded to BBB by Standard and Poor’s 10/13/2016: LOT Polish Airlines will lease 15 Boeing single-aisle planes from Air Lease 9/28/2016: Air lease corporation announces pricing of public offering of $500M of 2.125% unsecured senior notes due 2020. 9/26/2016: Air Lease Corporation Announces Placements of Six New Airbus A321neo Aircraft with Air Arabia Recent important news and contract
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation 29 Agenda Introduction Macroeconomic Overview Relevant Stock Market Prospects Financial Analysis of Past Performance Financial Projections Company and its Business Valuation Analysis Recent News Recommendation
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Real Client Managed PortfolioAir Lease Corporation Recommendation 30 VALUATION SUMMARY Current PriceDCF Implied PriceComparable Valuation Implied Price $29.78$25.02$24.63 - $26.62 Sell 100 Thin Profit Margin Growing Fleet Slowing Fleet Delivery High Leverage $24.63 $25.02 $26.62 $29.78
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