1. The Role of Simulation in the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual ITE Western District Annual Meeting June 28, 2010 Loren Bloomberg/CH2M HILL Santa Ana, CA loren.bloomberg@ch2m.com Chair, Traffic Simulation Applications Subcommittee of the Highway Capacity and Quality of Service ITE Western District Annual Meeting June 28, 2010 Loren Bloomberg/CH2M HILL Santa Ana, CA loren.bloomberg@ch2m.com Chair, Traffic Simulation Applications Subcommittee of the Highway Capacity and Quality of Service

2. Presentation Overview Traffic Simulation Applications Subcommittee Purpose/Objectives Committee Perspective Simulation in the New HCM General Guidance Chapters Methodological Chapters Traffic Simulation Applications Subcommittee Purpose/Objectives Committee Perspective Simulation in the New HCM General Guidance Chapters Methodological Chapters

3. Traffic Simulation Applications Subcommittee Originally – Traffic Systems Task Force/Part V Task Force (2000 HCM) Converted to cross-cutting subcommittee made up of HCQS members and friends Meets twice annually 20 to 40 participants Originally – Traffic Systems Task Force/Part V Task Force (2000 HCM) Converted to cross-cutting subcommittee made up of HCQS members and friends Meets twice annually 20 to 40 participants

4. Traffic Simulation Applications Objective “To develop HCM guidance on the application of traffic simulation tools.”

5. The HCM Can Contribute to An Improved Microsimulation Practice HCM and microsimulation together result in better planning, engineering, and design practice Example opportunities Capacity estimates to guide simulation Improved MOEs from simulation HCM and microsimulation together result in better planning, engineering, and design practice Example opportunities Capacity estimates to guide simulation Improved MOEs from simulation

6. Simulation is Needed to Extend the HCM Examples Elements outside the methodology (e.g., HOV) Quantifying queuing Complex interactions Assessment of limitations Yes: Downstream congestion Partially: Access control No: Effects of enforcement Examples Elements outside the methodology (e.g., HOV) Quantifying queuing Complex interactions Assessment of limitations Yes: Downstream congestion Partially: Access control No: Effects of enforcement

7. HCQS Resolutions (2007): The HCM Should…. Include guidance to simulation model developers Recommend common MOEs Discourage the inappropriate use of LOS threshold tables Require documentation on the application of queuing for MOEs Address randomness Include guidance to simulation model developers Recommend common MOEs Discourage the inappropriate use of LOS threshold tables Require documentation on the application of queuing for MOEs Address randomness

8. Summary Goals for the HCM2010 Guidance on using HCM and simulation – separately and together Guidance on MOEs Guidance on best practices for application Bottom line: improve the practice for both HCM and simulation Guidance on using HCM and simulation – separately and together Guidance on MOEs Guidance on best practices for application Bottom line: improve the practice for both HCM and simulation

9. How Do We Get There? Clear relationship between HCM and simulation Easy work has been done Don’t repeat what users already know Clear relationship between HCM and simulation Easy work has been done Don’t repeat what users already know

10. The 2010 HCM Will Include Three Types of Simulation Guidance Broad guidance to users Technical guidance for model developers Application guidance to users Broad guidance to users Technical guidance for model developers Application guidance to users

11. The 2010 HCM Will Include Three Types of Simulation Guidance Broad guidance to users Chapter 6: HCM and Alternative Analysis Tools Chapter 7: Interpreting HCM and Alternative Tool Results Technical guidance for model developers Chapter 7: Interpreting HCM and Alternative Tool Results Volume 4 (Technical Reference Library) Application guidance to users Volumes 2 and 3 (methodological chapters) Volume 4 (Applications Guide) Broad guidance to users Chapter 6: HCM and Alternative Analysis Tools Chapter 7: Interpreting HCM and Alternative Tool Results Technical guidance for model developers Chapter 7: Interpreting HCM and Alternative Tool Results Volume 4 (Technical Reference Library) Application guidance to users Volumes 2 and 3 (methodological chapters) Volume 4 (Applications Guide)

12. Broad Guidance to Users: Chapter 6 (HCM and Alternative Tools) Section 3: Alternative Tools (23 of 28 pages) Traffic Modeling Concepts and Terminology Types of models and categories Conceptual Differences Between Analytical and Simulation Models Appropriate Use of Alternative Tools Application Framework of Alternative Tools By facility type and methodology Performance Measures for Alternative Tools Traffic Analysis Tool Selection Criteria Application Guidelines for Simulation Tools Data, Calibration, DTA, Output, Alternatives Section 3: Alternative Tools (23 of 28 pages) Traffic Modeling Concepts and Terminology Types of models and categories Conceptual Differences Between Analytical and Simulation Models Appropriate Use of Alternative Tools Application Framework of Alternative Tools By facility type and methodology Performance Measures for Alternative Tools Traffic Analysis Tool Selection Criteria Application Guidelines for Simulation Tools Data, Calibration, DTA, Output, Alternatives

13. Technical Guidance: Chapter 7 (Interpreting HCM and Alternative Tool Results) Section 2: Comparing HCM Analysis Results with Alternative Tools (28 of 42 pages) Use of Vehicle Trajectory Analysis in Comparing Performance Measures Stochastic Aspects of Simulation Analysis Comparing HCM Analysis Results with Alternative Tools Section 2: Comparing HCM Analysis Results with Alternative Tools (28 of 42 pages) Use of Vehicle Trajectory Analysis in Comparing Performance Measures Stochastic Aspects of Simulation Analysis Comparing HCM Analysis Results with Alternative Tools

14. Chapter 7: Trajectory Analysis Basic tenet #1: trajectory analysis is the base for accurate output analysis Basic tenet #2: simulation models’ output analysis differ from each other and the HCM Basic tenet #1: trajectory analysis is the base for accurate output analysis Basic tenet #2: simulation models’ output analysis differ from each other and the HCM

15. Chapter 7: Stochastic Aspects Each model run results in different results Multiple runs are required The number of runs can be determined, but it isn’t obvious Each model run results in different results Multiple runs are required The number of runs can be determined, but it isn’t obvious

16. Chapter 7: Comparing HCM and Simulation LOS results may be different if MOEs are not calculated in the same way Capacity is easy for the HCM and complicated for simulation LOS results may be different if MOEs are not calculated in the same way Capacity is easy for the HCM and complicated for simulation Temporal and spatial boundaries are particularly important for simulation Complete vs. incomplete trips Multiple-period analysis Temporal and spatial boundaries are particularly important for simulation Complete vs. incomplete trips Multiple-period analysis

17. Application Guidance to Users “Use of Alternative Tools” section in methodological chapters Strengths of HCM Procedure Limitations of HCM Procedures that Might Be Addressed by Alternative Tools Additional Features and Performance Measures Available from Alternative Tools Development of HCM-Compatible Performance Measures Using Alternative Tools Conceptual Differences Between the HCM and Simulation Modeling that Preclude Direct Comparison of Results Adjustment of Simulation Parameters to the HCM Results Step-by-Step Recommendation for Applying Alternative Tools Supplemental sample problems in Volume 4 “Use of Alternative Tools” section in methodological chapters Strengths of HCM Procedure Limitations of HCM Procedures that Might Be Addressed by Alternative Tools Additional Features and Performance Measures Available from Alternative Tools Development of HCM-Compatible Performance Measures Using Alternative Tools Conceptual Differences Between the HCM and Simulation Modeling that Preclude Direct Comparison of Results Adjustment of Simulation Parameters to the HCM Results Step-by-Step Recommendation for Applying Alternative Tools Supplemental sample problems in Volume 4

18. Application Guidance to Users “Use of Alternative Tools” section in methodological chapters Strengths of HCM Procedure Limitations of HCM Procedures that Might Be Addressed by Alternative Tools Additional Features and Performance Measures Available from Alternative Tools Development of HCM-Compatible Performance Measures Using Alternative Tools Conceptual Differences Between the HCM and Simulation Modeling that Preclude Direct Comparison of Results Adjustment of Simulation Parameters to the HCM Results Step-by-Step Recommendation for Applying Alternative Tools Supplemental sample problems in Volume 4 “Use of Alternative Tools” section in methodological chapters Strengths of HCM Procedure Limitations of HCM Procedures that Might Be Addressed by Alternative Tools Additional Features and Performance Measures Available from Alternative Tools Development of HCM-Compatible Performance Measures Using Alternative Tools Conceptual Differences Between the HCM and Simulation Modeling that Preclude Direct Comparison of Results Adjustment of Simulation Parameters to the HCM Results Step-by-Step Recommendation for Applying Alternative Tools Supplemental sample problems in Volume 4

19. Application Guidance to Users

20. “Use of Alternative Tools” section in methodological chapters Strengths of HCM Procedure Limitations of HCM Procedures that Might Be Addressed by Alternative Tools Additional Features and Performance Measures Available from Alternative Tools Development of HCM-Compatible Performance Measures Using Alternative Tools Conceptual Differences Between the HCM and Simulation Modeling that Preclude Direct Comparison of Results Adjustment of Simulation Parameters to the HCM Results Step-by-Step Recommendation for Applying Alternative Tools Supplemental sample problems in Volume 4 “Use of Alternative Tools” section in methodological chapters Strengths of HCM Procedure Limitations of HCM Procedures that Might Be Addressed by Alternative Tools Additional Features and Performance Measures Available from Alternative Tools Development of HCM-Compatible Performance Measures Using Alternative Tools Conceptual Differences Between the HCM and Simulation Modeling that Preclude Direct Comparison of Results Adjustment of Simulation Parameters to the HCM Results Step-by-Step Recommendation for Applying Alternative Tools Supplemental sample problems in Volume 4

21. Simulation in the 2010 HCM: Summary Expanded guidance from 2000 HCM 50 focused pages in Volume 1 30 pages on alternative tools in Volumes 2 and 3 Detailed examples in Volume 4 Recognizing and addressing differences between tools User challenges Developer consistency Focus on using both the HCM and simulation (alternative tools) Both are important Expanded guidance from 2000 HCM 50 focused pages in Volume 1 30 pages on alternative tools in Volumes 2 and 3 Detailed examples in Volume 4 Recognizing and addressing differences between tools User challenges Developer consistency Focus on using both the HCM and simulation (alternative tools) Both are important

22. The Role of Simulation in the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual ITE Western District Annual Meeting Session 4A: 2010 Highway Capacity Manual Preview July 13, 2009 Loren Bloomberg/CH2M HILL Santa Ana, CA loren.bloomberg@ch2m.com Chair, Traffic Simulation Applications Subcommittee ITE Western District Annual Meeting Session 4A: 2010 Highway Capacity Manual Preview July 13, 2009 Loren Bloomberg/CH2M HILL Santa Ana, CA loren.bloomberg@ch2m.com Chair, Traffic Simulation Applications Subcommittee

23. Extra slides follow

24. HCQS Objectives (www.ahb40.org) Investigate the physical and non-physical factors which affect capacity, traffic flow, comfort, convenience, and safety; and is responsible for developing computational techniques for quantifying the effect of these factors on capacity, traffic flow; and quality of service. Act as the primary overseer for research and enhancement of the HCM. The HCM documents procedures and guidelines for the measurement, analysis, and interpretation of data quantifying highway capacity and quality of service. Investigate the physical and non-physical factors which affect capacity, traffic flow, comfort, convenience, and safety; and is responsible for developing computational techniques for quantifying the effect of these factors on capacity, traffic flow; and quality of service. Act as the primary overseer for research and enhancement of the HCM. The HCM documents procedures and guidelines for the measurement, analysis, and interpretation of data quantifying highway capacity and quality of service.

25. Subcommittee Relationship to NCHRP 3-85 TRB Staff/ NCHRP Panel NCHRP 3-85 Team Traffic Simulation Applications HCQS

26. HCQS’ Broad Interests Related to Simulation Long-standing discussion Improve the HCM and its application: “current and relevant” Understand the benefits of both analytical techniques and simulation When to use simulation and the HCM When using simulation, how to leverage HCM concepts How to use simulation to better the HCM Assess and recommend appropriate methodologies for solving a variety of problems – use for practitioners Long-standing discussion Improve the HCM and its application: “current and relevant” Understand the benefits of both analytical techniques and simulation When to use simulation and the HCM When using simulation, how to leverage HCM concepts How to use simulation to better the HCM Assess and recommend appropriate methodologies for solving a variety of problems – use for practitioners

27. Motion 07-6 The Highway Capacity Manual should include guidance to developers of traffic simulation models and other traffic analysis tools to promote consistent and accurate reporting of measures of effectiveness for highway capacity analysis. This guidance should include a set of minimum criteria that all traffic analysis tools would be encouraged to achieve.

28. Motion 07-7 To promote consistency among traffic simulation models and other traffic analysis tools, the Highway Capacity Manual should include a recommended list of common measures of effectiveness (MOEs). These MOEs should be based on vehicle trajectories. The HCM should recommend that all traffic analysis tools include the functionality to provide those measures of effectiveness as outputs. For the purpose of this motion, vehicle trajectories shall be defined as documented in the report, Definition, Interpretation, and Calculation of Traffic Analysis Tools Measures of Effectiveness prepared by the Federal Highway Administration dated January 2007.

29. Motion 07-8 The Highway Capacity Manual should discourage the use of HCM level of service threshold tables based on measures of effectiveness reported by other traffic analysis tools that are inconsistent with HCM definitions.

30. Motion 07-9 The Highway Capacity Manual should include guidance that the measures of effectiveness produced by traffic simulation models and other traffic analysis tools are considered to be incomplete, unless they also include clear documentation of the assumptions used to handle and report vehicle queues.

31. Motion 07-10 The Highway Capacity Manual should include a discussion of the randomness inherent in the results of stochastic traffic simulation models and recommendations for dealing with this aspect of traffic simulation.