1. HAZARDOUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA AND SOCIAL VULNERABILITY IN RUSSIA Speaker: Stepan Zemtsov, PhD, senior researcher Kazan 21.09.2016 2ND INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE SCIENCE OF THE FUTURE Laboratory of complex ecological and geographical research in the Arctic, Lomonosov Moscow State University

2. PURPOSE and MOTIVATION 2 The relevance of our research: More than 10 million people, or 7.2 per cent of the Russian population, are exposed to hazardous hydrological phenomena (Shakhramanjyan, 2001; Ministry of Finance, 2011) Krymsk tragedy in 2012 have caused nearly 200 fatalities and about €300m of economic damage (Kotlyakov et al., 2013) The main gap for Russian studies of natural hazards is a lack of works dedicated to social vulnerability of communities The purpose of the research: to estimate the potential influence of hazardous hydrological phenomena on social and economic development in Russia The (null) hypothesis: real social loses (e.g. death) from hazardous hydrological events are similar to economic damage (e.g. destruction of physical infrastructure) but the first one is underestimated because of low “value of life” in Russia

3. RESEARCH PLAN 3 2. Where are the main risk areas in Russia? Do regional and municipal societies have the same vulnerability? 3. Krymsk municipal district is the most vulnerable and risky area in Krasnodar region, isn’t it? 4. But can we verify index values by field data? 5. How to compare social loses and economic damage? Is human life is priceless or “free” in Russia? 1. Can we use international methods (World Risk Index) for social risk assessment on regional and municipal level in Russia?

4. 1.1. WORLD RISK INDEX 4 (Birkmann, 2007; Fekete 2010; Fuchs et al. 2012, Birkmann et al. 2013) Vulnerability is “the degree of damage that can be expected depending on the characteristics of an ‘element at risk’ with respect to a certain hazard” (Fuchs et al. 2011) (World Risk Index, 2016)

5. 5 Exposure Vulnerability High exposure but low vulnerability (World Risk Index, 2016)

6. 1.3. WORLD RISK INDEX 6 But is it correct for large countries such as Russia? (World Risk Index, 2016) World Risk Index for Russia is 3,58% (out of 100%) (128 th out of 171 country) Exposure – 9,38% Vulnerability – 38,15% Russian Federation

7. 2.1. REGIONAL AND MUNICIPAL RISK INDEX (Zemtsov et al., 2014, 2016) 7 R = I NH × I E × I V I NH – natural hazard index (how many events, how often, how intensive) (Gladkevich et al., 2012) I E – exposure index (share of potentially exposed people) (Ministry of finance, 2011) I V – vulnerability index (relative share of people in danger) I V = 0.33 × (I S + I LCC + I LAC ) I S – susceptibility subindex (infrastructure, housing, poverty) I LCC – lack of coping capacity subindex (authorities, preparedness, medical services, social networks) I LAC – lack of adaptive capacity subindex (education, investment)

8. But what does it mean on a real territory? POTENTIAL FLOODING IN KRASNODAR REGION 2.2. REGIONAL EXPOSURE INDEX Data on subsidies of ministry of finance 8 RICE FIELDS. KUBAN DELTA SLAVYANSK-ON-KUBAN

9. 2.3. REGIONAL VULNERABILITY INDEX The most risky are underdeveloped regions? 9 Is it the case on municipal level? 2010 2014

10. 2.4. REGIONAL RISK INDEX Relative potential social losses 10 Number of significant flood events during the observation period (from XVIII century) in Russia on Black Sea Rivers, events per 10 years (Mikhailov et al., 2010) Why Krasnodar region is one of the leaders? Cuban flood, 2002 Krymsk, 2012

11. 3.1. EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY INDEX COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF KRASNODAR REGION 11 Krymsk wasn’t the most exposed but one of vulnerable!

12. 3.2. MUNICIPAL RISK INDEX 12 Slavyansk municipal district But is it really the proportion of vulnerable people? Can we recommend EMERCOM to strengthen activities in the area?

13. 4.1. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Poll. Positive answers to sensitive questions 13 There are a lot of questions to EMERCOM But there are questions to some people

14. 4.2. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Main questions after factor analysis 14 Vulnerability index of Slavyansk district by previous method is 0.42. 41.5% of the total population in Slavyansk district can be attributed to the group of the most vulnerable Most vulnerable Less vulnerable Weakly vulnerable Can you provide the safety of your life? No In part. Do not know Yes What is your age?0-16, > 6656-65> 16, < 56 How many years do you live in the area? < 1, 1-55-20> 20 Did you experience flooding? NoOnce More than once

15. 5.1. SOCIAL LOSES 15 D Social – potential social loses L – approach of estimation ρ – population density of a settlement i (person per km 2 ) S – exposed (flood prone) area of settlement i (km 2 ) V (6) – social vulnerability index (percentage of population ) V Victims – share of potential casualties (EMERCOM 2007) coeff Victims – average health losses: L 1 – health insurance (€ 5000 per capita, Guriev 2010), L 2 – free medical insurance (€ 1200 per capita) V Death – death rate (EMERCOM 2007) coeff Death – financial estimation of a statistical life loss value: L 1 – life insurances in the USA, adjusted for GDP difference between the USA and Russia (€1.5m per life lost (Guriev 2010)); L 2 – the loss of a family member (€ 50000 per life lost (EMERCOM 2007)) Two main approaches for financial evaluation of human life cost Real loss ( L 1 ): how person and society estimate it – health and life insurance Government ( L 2 ): what they pay if someone injured or dies Statistical life cost (Mrozek & Taylor 2002; Viscusi & Aldy 2003)

16. 5.2. ECONOMIC DAMAGE 16 D Economic – potential economic damage d – maximum potential value of exposed object i per unit of area (million € per km 2 ) V – vulnerability index of object i (in shares) S – size of area, covered by i (km 2 ) D Agriculture – agricultural damage D Fixed_assets – loss of fixed assets D Infrastructure – infrastructure damage D Real_estate – damage of dwellings in residential section D Exist_investment – loss of existing investment activity, or underinvestment D Planned_investment – potential profit loss of planned investment projects

17. 5.3. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DAMAGE Slavyansk municipal district 17 Potential economic damage Medium flooding CategoryAgriculture Fixed assets Infrastructure Real estate Invest ments Total Potential damage (€ million)1.12012.229.10.863.2 Catastrophic flooding CategoryAgriculture Fixed assets Infrastructure Real estate Invest ments Total Potential damage (€ million)32.375.713.9150.142.1 314.1 Potential social losses Medium flooding ApproachReal loss for society (€ million)Government estimation (€ million) CategoryVictimsDeathsTotalVictimsDeathsTotal 0.710.511.20.170.350.52 Catastrophic flooding ApproachReal loss for society (€ million)Government estimation (€ million) CategoryVictimsDeathsTotalVictimsDeathsTotal 8.8264.0 272.8 2.18.810.9 Potential economic damage and social losses can be similar!

18. CONCLUSION Answering the research questions 18 It is possible to use international methods but there is a lack of data on regional and municipal levels in Russia and different methods for data collection Russian regions are very different by its exposure and vulnerability but it is even more different on municipal level Regional indices is a form of monitoring In Krasnodar region, there are some areas even more exposed and vulnerable than Krymsk municipal district Indices can be verified by polls Poll results from Slavyansk district: a lot of questions to local government and EMERCOM Social loss is comparable to economic damage Need for change of EMERCOM and scientific paradigm in natural hazards research from technocratic (when we try to ‘concrete’ all the problems) to social (preparation of local societies)

19. Thank you for attention! Stepan Zemtsov, RANEPA, MSU, IEP PhD/senior researcher E-mail: zemtsov@ranepa.ru URL: http://www.ranepa.ru/prepodavateli/sotrudnik/?742 Laboratory of complex ecological and geographical research in the Arctic, Lomonosov Moscow State University For citation: Zemtsov S., Goryachko M., Baburin V., Krylenko I., Yumina N. (2016). Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of hazardous hydrological phenomena in Slavyansk municipal district. Natural Hazards, no 1, 43-61. Zemtsov S.P., Baburin V.L., Koltermann K.P., Krylenko I.N., Yumina N.M., Litvinov V.Yu (2014). Social risk and vulnerability assessment of the hazardous hydrological phenomena in Russia. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY, no 4, 95-118. Zemtsov S., Krylenko I., Yumina N. (2012). Socio-economic Assessment of Flood Risk in Coastal Areas of the Azov-Black Sea Coast in the Krasnodar Region (in Russian: Социально- экономическая оценка риска наводнений в прибрежных зонах Азово-Черноморского побережья Краснодарского края). In The Environmental and social risks in the coastal zone of the Black Sea and Azov Sea. Moscow: Publishing House of Triumph