1. Potential financial motivations for end-user programming Christopher Scaffidi

2. An excerpt from the future “End-user programming provides benefits to individuals and institutions. Studies have shown that compared to non-programmers in the same occupations, end-user programmers earned an average of 10% more than non-programmers, they experienced half the rate of unemployment risk, they found work 3 times faster when laid off, and they retired with 4.6 times as much savings. In addition, end-user programmers receive benefits related to efficiency, enjoyment, and respect. Other analyses showed business profitability was also positively correlated with the prevalence of end-user programmers among employees. Among engineering and science programs at universities, school ranking could be increased by introducing end-user programming into curricula. Finally, a historical review noted that, among the 100 inventors most mentioned in the American media from the 21 st Century, at least 95 were programmers.”

3. Where we might find such an excerpt Websites motivating people to learn programming and/or encouraging businesses to invest in training staff Introductory chapter of a textbook on end-user programming Proposal to a state legislature or a university system, seeking education investment in new courses on end-user programming Introduction to a grant proposal or a paper related to further research on end-user programming tools

4. The state of our excerpt today “End-user programming provides benefits to individuals and institutions. Studies have shown that compared to non-programmers in the same occupations, end-user programmers earned an average of 10% more than non-programmers, they experienced half the rate of unemployment risk, they found work 3 times faster when laid off, and they retired with 4.6 times as much savings. In addition, end-user programmers receive benefits related to efficiency, enjoyment, and respect. Other analyses showed business profitability was also positively correlated with the prevalence of end-user programmers among employees. Among engineering and science programs at universities, school ranking could be increased by introducing end-user programming into curricula. Finally, a historical review noted that, among the 100 inventors most mentioned in the American media from the 21 st Century, at least 95 were programmers.” Studies have shown people expect learning to program will enable them to communicate better with programmers and to obtain better jobs.

5. The contribution of this paper “End-user programming provides benefits to individuals and institutions. One study showed that compared to non-programmers in the same occupations, end-user programmers earned an average of 10% more than non-programmers, they experienced half the rate of unemployment risk, they found work 3 times faster when laid off, and they retired with 4.6 times as much savings. In addition, end-user programmers receive benefits related to efficiency, enjoyment, and respect. Other analyses showed business profitability was also positively correlated with the prevalence of end-user programmers among employees. Among engineering and science programs at universities, school ranking could be increased by introducing end-user programming into curricula. Finally, a historical review noted that, among the 100 inventors most mentioned in the American media from the 21 st Century, at least 95 were programmers.”

6. Data set Current Population Survey (CPS), US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPS dataset for October 2003 was the last one that included: Employment status (Boolean) Weekly earnings ($) Four-digit occupational category Computer use (Boolean) Spreadsheet/database use (Boolean) [SSDB] Programming (Boolean) [EUP] Obtained these data for the 8467 employed workers who used computers at work

7. Analyses Descriptive statistics How many people are using spreadsheets/databases, and/or programming? What are their average wages? Statistical tests Earnings ~ Occupation + SSDB + EUP; Earnings ~ Occupation + EUP + SSDB ANOVA: Earnings versus spreadsheets/databases and/or programming, while controlling for occupational code Adjusted earnings ~ SSDB; Adjusted earnings ~ EUP Kruskal-Wallis (non-parametric): After subtracting per-occupation averages to adjust for occupation, do earnings vary depending on whether workers use spreadsheets/databases, or (separately) whether they program?

8. Distribution of workers

9. Average earnings

10. Average adjusted earnings SSDB YesNo EUP Yes + $58-$41 No + $24-$57 After subtracting the corresponding per-occupation average earnings from each worker’s earnings. Those with SSDB=EUP=false earned less than their per-occupational average; those SSDB=EUP=true earned more.

11. Statistical tests: All highly significant N=8467 ANOVA tests Earnings vs SSDB: F≥70.3, p<0.0001 for each test Earnings vs EUP: F≥7.2, p<0.01 for each test Kruskal-Wallis tests Adjusted earnings vs SSDB:  2 =68.7, p<0.0001 Adjusted earnings vs EUP:  2 =11.2, p<0.001

12. Conclusions SSDB and EUP essentially constituted a single three-level construct 98% of had SSDB=EUP=false, SSDB=true&EUP=false, or SSDB=EUP=true People with SSDB=EUP=true earned $337 more per week than those with SSDB=EUP=false Controlling for occupation, the difference was $115 per week An increase of 14% relative to the overall average earnings of $823 per week Most of the increase was associated with SSDB; less with EUP

13. Ongoing and future work Retest with other survey data CPS data from other years Non-CPS data, more recent than 2003 Retest with non-survey data Such as job postings (which is what I initially tried, with unclear results) Investigate causation To what extent does the ability to use spreadsheets/databases and/or to program actually cause an increase in earnings? What are the mechanisms?

14. Other opportunities to make more precise… To what extent do end-user programming skills… Help prevent unemployment? Lead to better jobs faster? Higher pay, more meaningful work, higher job satisfaction… Different benefits to people in different occupations… Enable people to live more financially secure lives? Enable businesses to innovate, compete, and/or profit? Enable innovators to impact society? 1) Quantification is difficult. 2) No single statistic can capture all benefits of end-user programming. But: These are not reasons to avoid making benefits of EUP more precise.

15. If you want to collaborate, you know how to find me… “End-user programming provides benefits to individuals and institutions. Studies have shown that compared to non-programmers in the same occupations, end-user programmers earned an average of 10% more than non-programmers, they experienced half the rate of unemployment risk, they found work 3 times faster when laid off, and they retired with 4.6 times as much savings. In addition, end-user programmers receive benefits related to efficiency, enjoyment, and respect. Other analyses showed business profitability was also positively correlated with the prevalence of end-user programmers among employees. Among engineering and science programs at universities, school ranking could be increased by introducing end-user programming into curricula. Finally, a historical review noted that, among the 100 inventors most mentioned in the American media from the 21 st Century, at least 95 were programmers.”