1. IPAT I = P x A x T Impact on the environment = Population xSteve Activity xSara Technology. Yoram Introduction (IPAT) PopulationConsumption Technology Social Justice

2. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Billions 0 1 -10000-7500-5000-250002500 1850 1800 1900 1950 1975 2000 1968: Garrett Hardin freaks out October 20, 2008

3. How has the world’s population grown through history? Introduction (IPAT) PopulationConsumption Technology Social Justice

4. How has the world’s population grown through history?

5. What determines population growth? Age structure of a population

6. What Drives Population Growth: Theories Mortality driven: –Invention of new technologies allows lowered mortality and excess of births over deaths –People will reproduce until they come up against “positive checks” (Malthus) Fertility driven: –Population growth forces people to create new technologies to accommodate the extra people –People are capable of limiting their fertility

7. What Drives Population Growth: Demographic Transition

8. How does population growth affect the environment? Some adverse effects: Decreased habitat for other species Resource depletion - Changes in land cover - Deforestation and loss of carbon sinks - Extinction of prey species Pollution - Nitrogen from fertilizers and wastes - Sulfur from combustion

9. What does the future look like? Some representative Total Fertility Rates CountryTFR 1985TFR 2000 Rwanda7.85.7 Malawi7.45.3 Bangladesh5.53.1 India4.33.1 Mexico3.92.8 USA1.82.1 Japan1.71.5 China1.51.7 Italy1.51.3 World4.22.8

10. What does the future look like?

11. I = PAT: The effects of population growth on the environment will be magnified by increases in the affluence of world populations Therefore: Unless A and T decline drastically, we need to bring down P—not just stop the growth, but bring it down.

12. Introduction (IPAT) PopulationConsumption Technology Social Justice

13. Consumption of selected industrial raw materials compared to global population. Five of the top countries consuming industrial raw materials account for roughly 10 percent of the world's population but consume up to 50 percent of more of some of the main materials. This shows a large imbalance between these 5 nations and the other 188. (http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/waste/ )http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/waste/

14. Introduction (IPAT) PopulationConsumption Technology Social Justice

15. Vaclav Smil - http://home.cc.um anitoba.ca/~vsmil/ graphics/energy/h di.htm http://home.cc.um anitoba.ca/~vsmil/ graphics/energy/h di.htm

16. Introduction (IPAT) PopulationConsumption Technology Social Justice Steve’s rebuttal

17. Sara’s rebuttal Introduction (IPAT) PopulationConsumption Technology Social Justice

20. Population density in drylands of the World. The most densely populated dryland regions are in developing countries, and the economies in this zone are vulnerable to issues like drought. http://earthtrends.wri.org/maps_spatial/maps_detail_static.php?m ap_select=461&theme=9 http://earthtrends.wri.org/maps_spatial/maps_detail_static.php?m ap_select=461&theme=9

21. Introduction (IPAT) PopulationConsumption Technology Social Justice Desertification, risks of droughts and floods and rising sea levels could drive millions of people to migrate. A variety of reports of environmental experts, NGO's, and UN agencies warn of mass migration of 'environmental refugees', ranging between 200 million and a billion people by 2050. Even though environmental migration is not new, the fear of environmental refugees has become a real political issue.

22. Introduction (IPAT) PopulationConsumption Technology Social Justice What are the possible solutions? How do we arrive as a society/country at a solution?

23. Given what you have heard today (we will come back to this later), which alternative (for a solution) do you favor for the United States 1.(P) 2.(A) 3.Combination of P and A. 4.(T) 5.Combination of all 6.None of the above

24. Synthesis: Reach out Tom: Remember every value displayed is a mean and in reality there are means, ranges, and variations around the mean. How do changes in P, A and T account or consider the problems with those that have and those that have not. Is moving or shifting the mean an adequate measure of success? Sara: Do not forget the role of institutions and how they can shade or hinder success. Introduction (IPAT) PopulationConsumption Technology Social Justice