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How the US Presidential Election will affect Global Stock Markets.

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Presentation on theme: "How the US Presidential Election will affect Global Stock Markets."— Presentation transcript:

1 How the US Presidential Election will affect Global Stock Markets

2 Welcome AFUND events feature 1.Highly Investible Companies 2.Engaging Talks 3.Yummy Food & Beverage 4.Valuable Networking Opportunities

3 Our Forecast TRUMP VICTORY Our Forecast given summer 2015 was for Trump victory but would be a long slog, i.e. would take until the very end of the last week to achieve. Astrological Reason: Trump double Jupiter 2017 = either president or contract for Wall (but this not likely with Hillary Victory). A Trump network is now also a possibility but since Jupiter implies WINNING- not sure this would satisfy the success symbolism. Day astro suggests Rally the day before [11/7] and Down the day after [11/9] (If so, also suggesting a Trump victory) If Hillary wins we would short any rally; if Trump wins we buy any dip. Note: In case of severe drop, have selected stock buys @10-25% discount. With CLINTON VICTORY EXPECT INCREASED EMPHASIS ON TAX AVOIDANCE With TRUMP VICTORY ANIMAL SPIRITS UNLEASED. LOWER TAXES AND REGULATION BEGETS BETTER MARKET FUNDEMENTALS

4 TRADING THE ELECTION Mexican Peso and Mexican Market Russian Market and Russian Ruble Other Major Market to play: China

5 Trump Victory Defense contractors, energy drillers, pipelines, coal, gold miners, biotech, construction firms all winners Better with Hillary Goldman Sachs and other contributing financial firms Media Amazon Winning Either Way GOLD Uncertainty with Trump vs. he loves gold Hillary reality will be weak leadership = loss of confidence plus increased global risks Infrastructure stocks. Both Trump and Hillary agree on this. BOTTOM LINE: IF HILLARY WINS, WE SHORT ANY RALLY IF TRUMP WINS WE BUY ANY REACTIVE DIP

6 GOLD Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance. Moreover for investors suffering from negative interest rates, accumulating gold continues to be a no-brainer! Likewise for investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD! Q4 2016 Gold FV $1388 = Commodity FV: 1325 + Currency FV: 1450 + Inflation Metal FV: 1325 + Crisis FV: 1450. Gold/Silver ratio  62 NOTE: While gold and silver may become be over-valued, we are not inclined to short or sell as INVESTORS until gold is well overvalued e.g. $1450 to $1500. For positional silver Traders our selling numbers are $22 to $25 and investors $25-30.

7 FROM WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK WAITING FOR NOVEMBER 9 Until then without a fresh catalyst, the reality of weak global economic growth = a holding pattern with a downward bias. ACTIVE POSITIONAL TRADES SELL DJIA 18,000 [3x] & 18,380 & 18,506 [18,570]; Latest Sell 18530 BUY GOLD $1210 TO $1325+; Latest Buys $1288-$1260 BOTTOM LINE: Markets are testing DJIA 18,000 support. While anticipating earnings and the US$ and FED speculation (Will they or won’t they in December?), markets are largely on hold until the US Presidential Elections with a more favorable risk/reward to the downside.

8 Thanks to Goldman Sachs, $1250 seems to be firm short term support for gold. Logically, we next look forward to it moving to $1300+ TRADERS: Going forward, we hope to see first $1290- $1310 transmute from resistance back to support and then $1325- $1340. INVESTORS Intermediate Term, we still plan to stay LONG into the New Year (recommending only occasional hedging, selling or profit taking). Currently our thoughts are to sell/short/hedge circa $1450-$1500. Silver’s Fair Value should be $22. We expect to see $22+ and if higher between $25-$30 we would be thinking of selling/shorting/hedging.

9 SUMMARY TRADING If Hillary wins we short any rally; if Trump wins we buy the dip. Conservative traders can write covered calls or buy out of the money puts. INVESTING Outside of special situations, best to keep your power dry until an October correction and/or post the US Presidential Election.

10 QUESTIONS Save the Dates November 30, 2016 Small Cap Special Situation Luncheon [suggestions for January effect stocks welcome] February 22, 2017 XXII AFUND Triple Gold Conference


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