1. Knowledge needed for climate adaptation in Swedish forestry Hillevi Eriksson, Swedish Forest Agency

2. 2 Global air temperature is rising Brohan m fl 2006. J. Geophysical Research 111, D12106 + uppdateringar.

3. Hur ändras klimatet på Gotland? 3 Swedens annual air temperatures 1860-2008

4. In which situations shall or can things be done differently from today? What changes in the climate? => What impacts in the forest? => What choices will be –more economic or at least less risky in terms of large economic costs –better for biodiversity, social values

5. Climate change in Sweden - knowledge and strategy development Discussions starting in 1980’s, Rio 1992 =>IPCC SweClim – regional modelling (fr 1998) –Effect analyses (hydrology, infrastructure, forestry, agriculture, etc) Research on climate change and forestry –Steadily increasing 2005-2007: The climate and vuln investig. Sw Forest Ag: policies – 2001, 2009

6. Knowledge to action – how does it work? research => policy development Government Swedish Forest Agency Forestry actors => research “on demand”

7. The Climate and Vulnerability Investigation 2005-2007 Based on new SweClim model results, research results, new analyses, “best guesses” Focused on: –Infrastructure (roads, railway, telecomm., energy prod., electricity, sewage), water supply, agriculture, forestry, reindeer keeping, human health and biodiversity Suggested actions for reducing vulnerability.

8. Increased wood production Picea abiesPinus sylv.Betula verr. Källa: Johan Bergh, SLU

9. …but also more damage Storm-felling Fire More browsing Root rot, pine weevil and spruce beetle are all favoured Insects generelly favoured, new will arrive Spring frost Pathogens +/-

10. Suggestions concerning forestry Evaluation/adaptation of Forest Act Combined production of biofuels and nature values need development Increased information towards forest owners Improved considerations to raindeer keeping from forestry Improved strategies for protecting biodiversity Improved monitoring/reporting of damages

11. –Negativ effects on run-off water Mineral and organic material Nutrients -> eutrophication Mercury –Root damage –Bad PR for forestry Warmer wetter winters -> increased risk for deep track formation

12. Example: storm-felling New message to forest owners Climate change Impact on forest Social aspects Economic aspects

13. Hur ändras klimatet på Gotland? 13 SMHI : Frequency of winds >25 m/s for S Sweden Källa: Wern, L och Bärring, L., ”Sveriges vindklimat 1901-2008 Analys av förändring i geostrofisk vind” SMHI rapport i Meteorologi Nr 138/2009

14. Hur ändras klimatet på Gotland? 14 © Carin Nilsson, 2008, Windstorms in Sweden – variations and impacts, avhandling nr 179, Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemanalys, Lunds Universitet

15. Adaptation starting now - messages For preserved forestry productivity in future: –More species-specific damage -> risk spreading -> more tree species+ silv systems, more deer/moose hunting –Improved road maintenance –Anti-root rot treatment For improved resilience related to other values (biodiversity, tourism, etc )? –Risk spreading -> more species –More differentiated silvicultural systems –New strategies for preservation

16. Modelled temperature development in Västernorrland county 1960-2100 °C

17. Conclusions We need: –Basic research on climate change and its impact –Analyses on alternative action strategies From economic and other perspectives –Input from other disciplines: Changes in other countries, consumption, society, –Pedagogic presentations!..