1. SESSION 3 Emerging Strategic Space Issues: Areas of Potential Conflict “The Inevitability of Conflict in Space? Communicating and Harnessing Long-term State Interests” Christopher Daniel Johnson cjohnson@swfound.org Project Manager, Secure World Foundation

2. The Inevitability of Conflict in Space? Communicating and Harnessing Long-term State Interests I don’t ever want to go to war in space. With anybody, … That is bad for humankind. It’s bad for our military. It’s bad for the United States of America. It’s counterproductive for the amazing things that we do in space.... All that being said, the only way to avoid such a war is to always be prepared to defend ourselves. Always. - Gen. John Hyten, Commander of US Air Force Space Command Si vis pacem, para bellum. [“If you want peace, prepare for war.”] - Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus, De Re Militari - if no one wants a war in space, then why must conflict in space be inevitable?

3. Source: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/08/why-reducing-co2-emissions-is-like-the-prisoners-dilemma/

4. What is the rational course of action? Both should stick to the plan & stay quiet. However, they have no way of knowing if the other is going to defect.

5. The Prisoners Dilemma a parable about cooperation The classic application of the Prisoners Dilemma is the arms race. Both states in an arms race would save money and increase their security by disarming (cooperate). But the suspicion that the other side will defect, covertly cheat, and retain or build their arsenal, incentivizes both sides to pursue an arms race - the more costly and more dangerous outcome for both sides. The incentives are to defect, and not cooperate. In space, these incentives also exist, so the prisoner’s dilemma must be solved/resolved/dissolved

6. The Prisoners Dilemma a parable about cooperation The prisoners dilemma does not apply to outer space 1)Real life has many rounds 2)Communication between sides is possible 3)Long-term interests can change the equation on whether to defect or to cooperate 4)Long-term interests are for space sustainability