1. Houston Import Study Update
Jeff Billo
RPG Meeting
April 16, 2010

2. Houston Import Study Assumptions
Base case = YTP 2014 Economic Case
Includes YTP projects identified for 2014
Includes all CREZ transmission facilities
Does not include additional CREZ generation
Analysis will focus on economic benefit of additional import capacity into Houston area per ERCOT RPG Charter and Procedures Section 3.3
UPLAN
Assumed load can be served reliably without additional import capability, but additional import project may allow reliability criteria to be met at a lower overall cost
$2.5 M/ mile 345-kV double circuit cost
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

3. Approach Base Case BC + New Gas Gen North of Houston
BC + New Gas Gen In Houston
BC + Load Variation
Base Case
BC + CREZ Generation
BC + $4 gas/ $10 gas
BC & $3.34M/ mile 345-kV cost
BC + STP
3 & 4
Bulk of analysis will focus on the base case. Options may be eliminated at this stage.
Alternate scenarios will be used to quantify relative merit of options that pass first stage. Final recommendation will be selected.
Sensitivity scenarios will be run for recommended option and results added to report.
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

4. Houston Import Study Options1
Lufkin-Canal 345-kV double circuit 2
Salem-Zenith 345-kV double circuit 3
Fayetteville-Zenith 345-kV double circuit 3A
Fayetteville-Zenith 345-kV double circuit w/ 30% series comp 4
Gibbons Creek-Zenith 345-kV double circuit 6
Fayetteville-Obrien 345-kV double circuit 6A
Fayetteville-Obrien 345-kV double circuit w/ 30% series comp 9
Gibbons Creek-Salem-Zenith 345-kV double circuit 12
Gibbons Creek-Salem/ Fayetteville-Zenith 345-kV double circuit 19
Add series comp to existing Hillje-WAP and Hillje-Holman 345-kV 22
Fayetteville-Zenith 345-kV double circuit w/ 50% series comp 24
Option 19 + Option 22 J1
Sandow-Zenith 345-kV double circuit
J1A
Sandow-Zenith 345-kV double circuit w/ 30% series comp J2
Marion-Holman-Obrien 345-kV double circuit J3
Hillje-Obrien 345-kV double circuit DC
Brown-Zenith 3000 MW HVDC line
DC2
Scurry-Zenith 2000 MW HVDC line E1
Twin Oaks-Salem-Zenith 345-kV double circuit
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

5. Houston Import Study Options
To Scurry
To Brown
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3/ 3A/ 22
Option 4
Option 6/ 6A
Option 9
Option 12
Option 19
Option J1/ J1A
Option J2
Option J3
Option DC
Option DC2
Option E1
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

6. Houston Import Study Update
Updated modeling for identified cogeneration plants to better reflect operation of those units in recent history
Reran analysis with updated model
Revised study costs based on new $/mile estimate
Optimized each study option to remove congestion and lower production costs
Added some upgrades to original projects
Results on next slide
= Does not pass and will not be evaluated further
= Passes and will be evaluated in next step
= May be evaluated in future steps but most likely will not be recommended
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

7. Annual Savings Needed ($M) Annual Energy Revenue Savings ($M)
Savings Results
Options
Total Cost ($M)
Annual Savings Needed ($M)
Annual PC Savings ($M)
Annual Energy Revenue Savings ($M) 1
333
55.5
18.9
50.7 2
222
37.0
13.2
19.2 3
175
29.2
13.3
45.4 3A
225
37.5
11.4
58.3 4
173
28.8
11.0
-2.5 6
189
31.5
7.8
49.0 6A
239
39.8
12.1
43.3 9
278
46.3
11.8
52.3 12
306
51.0
12.3
46.5 19 62
10.3
3.1
6.4 22
226
37.7
46.1 24
315
52.5
11.7
43.9 J1
275
45.8
12.0
51.3
J1A
326
54.3
13.6
52.7 J2
420
70.0
10.8
41.1 J3
174
29.0
7.9
-10.7 E1
379
63.2
19.1
56.5
DC1
980
163.3
5.3
DC2
1108
184.7
17.7
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

8. Houston Import Study Results
Observations
2014 benchmark case showed heavy congestion on Singleton-Zenith 345-kV line for the contingency loss of Roans Prairie-Kuykendahl/ Singleton-Tomball 345-kV double circuit
Congestion also observed on Jewett-Singleton and Twin Oak-Jack Creek 345-kV lines
Upgraded cases generally showed lower average LMPs for Houston area
None of the upgrade projects completely eliminated Singleton-Zenith congestion
Production cost savings (societal benefit) were not high enough to justify any of the projects, but energy revenue savings (consumer benefit) were sufficient for several projects
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

9. The following three sample price maps all have the same color scale
LMP maps
The following three sample price maps all have the same color scale
Maps show relative annual average LMP for all buses
Red = high/ Blue = low
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

10. Benchmark case
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

11. Option 3
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

12. Option J1
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

13. Houston Import Study – Phase 2
Evaluate options that passed base case analysis in alternative scenarios
CREZ
Evaluate performance of each option with CREZ-level wind generation
Created benchmark case by increasing wind generation in each CREZ zone until each zone had its respective Scenario 2 level generation
Results in MW total wind generation capacity in case
Modified case by adjusting PSTs and opening some 69-kV lines in Wichita Falls area to reduce congestion
Options
Total Cost ($M)
Annual PC Savings ($M)
Annual Energy Revenue Savings ($M) 1
333
12.8
148.4 3
175
17.1
87.5 9
278
11.2
98.7 J1
275
24.9
91.9 E1
379
31.6
115.4
DC2
1108
77.0
171.3
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

14. CREZ Scenario Results Discussion
HVDC (Option DC2)
Resulted in highest annual production cost savings and annual energy revenue savings
Savings in CREZ scenario still would not be enough to justify high cost
Did not pass base case analysis
Will not be evaluated further
Southeast Loop (Option 1)
Results showed high annual energy revenue savings, but lower annual production cost savings
Will continue to be evaluated
Option E1
Did not show enough benefit to be recommended at this time
Option 3 could be expanded to Option E1 if future studies indicate justifiable benefit
Will continue to be evaluated, but only as possible future expansion of Option 3
Options 3, 9, and J1 continue to show good performance
The following four sample LMP maps all have the same color scale
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

15. CREZ Benchmark case
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

16. CREZ with Option 1
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

17. CREZ with Option 3
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

18. CREZ with Option DC2
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

19. Complete alternative scenario analysis
Houston Import Study
Next Steps
Complete alternative scenario analysis
May have project recommendation by May RPG meeting
Finalize report in June
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting

20. Questions?
April 16, 2010
RPG Meeting