1. Climate Change Science Rapid change and “tipping points” Jim Quinn Information Center for the Environment UC Davis

3. National Academy of Sciences National Research Council http://www.nap.edu/catalog/18373/abrupt-impacts-of-climate-change-anticipating-surprises

4. Increasing CO 2

5. Rising sea level

7. Record temperatures

8. Great Barrier Reef Bleaching

12. Projected sea ice

13. “Tipping Points”?

15. National Academy of Sciences

16. National Academy Tipping Point Candidates large, abrupt changes in ocean circulation and regional climate; reduced ice in the Arctic Ocean and permafrost regions; large-scale clathrate release; changes in ice sheets; large, rapid global sea-level rise; growing frequency and length of heat waves and droughts; effects on biological systems of permafrost/ground thawing (carbon cycle effects); phase changes such as cloud formation processes; and changes in weather patterns, such as changes in snowpack, increased frequency and magnitude of heavy rainfall events and floods, or changes in monsoon patterns and modes of interannual or decadal variability.

17. Possible “Tipping Points”

18. Rapid breakup of tidewater glaciers

19. Antarctic Ice Shelves

20. Larson Ice Shelf 31 Jan. 2002

21. Larson Ice Shelf 5 April 2002

22. Accelerating Greenland Glaciers NASA

23. Melting Ice Cap Surface

25. Impacts – More Extreme Weather? Hurricane Katrina – August 28, 2005

26. Cyclone Nargis Floods Burma (Myanmar) 2008

27. Size and Frequency of Tropical Storms

30. Normalized damage

32. Methane in hydrates (“clathrates”) and permafrost

33. NAS Assessment of “Tipping Point” Threats (physical processes p.1 of 3)

36. NAS Assessment of “Tipping Point” Threats (biology)

37. Uncertainties in adaptation and mitigation Best models Clouds and albedo Ocean-atmosphere coupling Tipping points? Scale Mitigation goals (primary productivity? Biomass? Impact on warming?) Policy

38. Adaptation for the Rich Thames Barrier

39. Extreme events

40. Stay Cool!