1. ADAPTATION SLIDES 1 Presentation to the PCEA – 28 October 2016 PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL

2. TOWARDS A CLIMATE RESILIENT SA SOCIETY Climate resilience denotes the ability to anticipate and reduce risk to climate variability and change, the ability to “bounce back” from the negative impacts of climate variability and change. It places a special focus on reducing inequality and increasing social and other capitals so that the most vulnerable in society are not differentially negatively impacted by climate change. To achieve this kind of society, South Africa needs to consider the following: –Strengthening and improvement of systems, processes and mechanisms to enhance effective response: Strengthening of access to information and resources necessary for appropriate and timely responses. –Enhancing the science policy interface for decision making: A combination of science-based information, socioeconomic baselines and vulnerability assessments including the integration of economic impact assessments, and gender issues. –Ensuring development is an integral part of climate change action: an opportunity to rethink the development pathways, including development, socio-economic needs. –Leadership for climate resilience: Climate resilience and development outcomes –Cross-sectoral integration: Underpinning all of the above is the need for cross-sectoral integration, collaboration and communication through the multi stakeholder engagements 2 SECRET

3. Longterm Adaptation Scenarios: Key Messages 3 SECRET SectorFindings Water Anticipates demand growth, 98%-95% assurance of supply depending on strategic needs. Focus on infrastructure development, little focus on demand management. Early climate change planning in a few key water management areas Agriculture and Fisheries Overall risks due to increasing temperature relate to increasing water demand, pests and diseases, crop suitability. Maize production at risk in western reaches of summer rainfall area, wheat production at risk in winter rainfall region, key export fruit crops at risk but commercial producers show high adaptability. High risk for small scale and subsistence farmers, including adverse field conditions for labour. Risks to coastal livelihoods interact with governance systems for resources, Recent shifts in resources, possibly cyclical, have caused assets to be stranded (West Coast factories). Adaptation strategies relate to sustainable management of stocks and improved predictive understanding Human health Key risks due to existing disease burden and poverty, especially in rural and urban poor mainly relating to extreme events, Some risks relating to vector borne diseases, e.g. malaria, schistosomiasis, Adaptive strategies include efficient early warning systems and improved living conditions and reduced poverty

4. Longterm Adaptation Scenarios: Key Messages 4 SECRET SectorFindings Human Settlement The vulnerability of human settlements to climate change = exposure (environmental risks and changes) + adaptive capacity. Key Exposure Risks are: Increased temperatures (heat waves and droughts), Extreme weather (loss of life and damage to infrastructure), and Sea level rise and coastal storm surges: salt water intrusion on fresh water reservoirs. Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Specific hazards inc. floods, droughts, fires and sediment loads with implications to specific infrastructure such as roads, human settlements, dams, powerlines and bridges. The risks of extreme events due to increased natural climate variability. Understanding these risks and identifying key areas of concern is critical for developing suitable and sustainable adaptation policies and scenarios. Economics to Adaptation in Future Climates Areas of concern: water supply impacts, significant risks to road infrastructure, increases in irrigation demand and the potential reduction in crop yields from staple dry-land crops such as maize and wheat. Vulnerable communities, such as those dependent on dry land agriculture, are more likely to be severely impacted by climate change. Economic impacts are likely to be most significant at a sub-national and sector based level rather than at a national scale. Biodiversity and Ecosystems Potential risk due to expansion of desert biome conditions in central interior, Adaptive capacity high with many management options, early warning and observation systems are critical, spatial planning to ensure maintenance of resilient landscapes, Ecosystem based approaches

5. Impact Scenarios Significant socio-economic implications for vulnerable groups and communities; Implications would largely be felt through impacts on water resources, such as changes in water resource availability and associated impacts on food production, health, energy generation, human settlements, industry and biodiversity; Higher frequency of natural disasters (flooding and drought), would have cross-sectoral effects on human settlements, disaster risk management as well as food and water security; The socio-economic impacts and potential response options for human settlements (urban, rural and coastal), and disaster risk reduction; These risks are likely to result in loss of property and damage to infrastructure, disruption of essential services, and reduced agricultural production and a breakdown of food systems. The total storage of dams was at 54.9% by end of the summer rainfall season which is lower than 79.9% record of last year the same time. Soya beans output is forecasted to decrease by 1% year on year whilst sunflower, dry beans, groundnuts and sorghum output has also been negatively impacted. 5

6. Economic Implications 6 The cost of the staple food basket increased by approximately 19% from January 2015 to the corresponding month in 2016 and a further increase of 10% in end of the first quarter of 2016 is expected. South Africa imported 2 million tons of wheat in 2015/16 at a cost of approximately R 6 billion. South Africa is expected to import 856 000 tons of white maize and 1.9 million tons of yellow maize at an estimated cost of R 11.5 billion. South Africa imported 2 million tons of wheat in 2015/16 at a cost of approximately R 6 billion. The Red Meat Producers Association estimates that over 40 000 cattle had died as a result of drought by the end of 2015 in Kwazulu Natal Natal alone. Grain South Africa has estimated the loss in export revenue to be valued at R4.7 billion rands. The total farming debt in South Africa at the end of June 2015 amounted to R 125 billion of rand having increased at an average of 14% from 2005

7. Adaptation Opportunities 7 Understand likely conflicts and trade-off likely to arise in terms of the needs for urban supply of water, water for agriculture, water for industrial activities and heightened exploitation of ground water resources within the context of climate change; Integration of climate-smart agriculture into climate-resilient rural development planning, development of long-term scenarios, use of early warning systems, improving food security, and increased integration into other sectors ; Improved local disaster risk local and vulnerability assessments to inform local government planning are needed; Integration of climate change into the management of biodiversity and ecosystem services; Develop system to cope in future the implementation of social, institutional, technological and behavioural interventions within the health sector; Diversification of activities and income generation of the vulnerable coastal and fisher communities and socioeconomic linkages from climate change impacts on the fisheries sector to other sectors is required;

8. 8 Adaptation Plans are being Developed, or have been Completed by (Sectors):  Department Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries – food security  Department of Water and Sanitation – water strategy  Department of Rural Development Land Reform – human settlement  Department of Health to guide adaptation on health impacts  Department of Environmental Affairs - biodiversity Adaptation Response Plans are being developed or have been completed by (Provinces):  Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and North-West Province have completed their Adaptation Response Plans (2014-2016)  Free State and Northern Cape (Risks and Vulnerability assessments and Adaptation Response Plans (2015/17)  Gauteng, Eastern Cape, Kwazulu-Natal- Response plans reviewed and updated (2016).  Western Cape’s strategy was finalised in 2014. Mainstreaming Climate change Responses at Local government Trainings have been rolled out in 47 Municipalities in 3 Province (Limpopo, North West and Mpumalanga) during 2016/17 using the Lets respond toolkit. Additional, 17 Municipalities have been capacitated as well in the Free State and Eastern Cape Provinces Implementation of the National Climate Change Response Policy- National and Subnational

9. 9 Articulate the adaptation vision for South Africa Reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development; Understand the country’s developmental pathways and limitations; Assess vulnerability in relation to economic projections/growth goals in the NDP ; - (business case); Strategic trade-offs across sectors; (water-agriculture-energy); Geographical areas of vulnerability; Alignment with the INDC adaptation goals; o Develop a National Adaptation Plan, o Climate considerations in development frameworks, o Build the necessary institutional capacity for climate change response; o Develop an early warning, vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system; o Development of a vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework; o Communication and awareness; Incorporate relevant climate information systems and adopt a risk-based approach to planning; NATIONAL ADAPTATION STRATEGY

10. THANK YOU 10