1. Biden Remarks & Biden Gaffes 1  During his visit to Korea, Vice President Joe Biden said that “It's never been a good bet to bet against America.”  http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2013/12/07/2013120700908.html http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2013/12/07/2013120700908.html  http://sunday.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=32364 http://sunday.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=32364  By the way, who’s Joe Biden?  He is well known for his verbal gaffes. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/14/bidens-list-political-blunders/ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWlSX9TT2eo  http://bioguide.congress.gov/biosearch/biosearch.asp http://bioguide.congress.gov/biosearch/biosearch.asp

2. The United States in a Turbulent World The National Interest = “Defending” vs. “Defining”  One interesting question for us is …. “What do you mean by national interest? “Who defines the national interest?” “Whose interests are national ones?” Ex) Is China a “strategic partner” or “strategic competitor”?  Understanding the SOURCES AND PROCESSES of “DEFINING” the national interest is one of the main themes for this section. 2

3. “Chinese Holdings of U.S. Securities”: Chimerica?  US Treasury securities (treasury bonds) issued to finance the federal budget deficit (government IOU)  China is the largest overseas holder of US Treasuries (since Sep 2008) (China’s foreign reserves: $2.5 trillion)  Tradeoff relationship between bond prices and interest rates  China’s potential use of US Securities as leverage against US foreign policies?  (If and big if) China is suddenly selling off US financial assets?  increase in the supply of dollars in the foreign exchange market  a sudden and large depreciation of the dollar  good for trade surplus (but “overshooting” possibility)  interest rate spike in US economy and bad for the whole economy  Can or will Chinese do it? If yes, how so? If not, why not? 3

4. External Challenges to US Primacy I. Cycles in the Balance of Power  Global power is inherently (historically) difficult to maintain  increasing costs of maintaining order  military presence around the world  Decreasing returns for production, trade, and growth  Initial advantage through division of labor and the market size ( Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, 1776)  Then, large trade and budget imbalances 4

5. External Challenges to US Primacy II. Shadow of Past  Human rights policy vs. Civil rights  Continued intervention in Latin America  Legitimizing authoritarian leaders during the Cold War  Reports of mistreatment overseas and at home during the war on terrorism 5

6. Former Authoritarian Rulers in Korea & US Support 6

7. External Challenges to US Primacy III. Resistance to Globalization  “Rich getting richer” and “poor getting poorer”  Bureaucratic problems of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund  U.S./Western nation–led international groups (neoclassical world economy, “Washington conspiracy”)  Environmental concerns, labor/human rights issues 7

8. External Challenges to US Primacy IV. Terrorism  Exploitation of vulnerable institutions, public opinion, and material goods  Unconventional tactics (terrorism is part of this warfare)  Suicide terrorism (most damaging form of terrorism)  “Open-ended “ struggle and a dilemma of exit strategy 8

9. U.S. Standing in the World: the 2009 APSA Report 9

10. Theories of International Relations I Realism (Neorealism/Structural Realism) Competitive and pessimistic view of human nature States are in constant security dilemma Uncertainty of other states’ motives and competition over finite resources Focus on sovereignty, state (military) power, and geographical threats Based on a__________ structure of global politics States are seen as r_________ and u_________ actors Dominant theory of international relations Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, John Mearsheimer, Randall Schweller, Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger 10

11. Theories of International Relations II Liberalism (Neoliberalism) Anarchic system does not inevitably lead to conflicts. Focus on democratic norms and positive traits of human nature for cooperation Relative peace: most states are at peace most of the time Focus on i________________ building & repeated cooperation “democratic peace”: democracies won’t go to war with other democracies Increase in interdependence promotes peace States are rational, but not u___________ actors John Locke, Immanuel Kant, Michael Doyle, Robert Keohane, John Ikenberry, Woodrow Wilson, Jimmy Carter 11

12. Realism vs. Liberalism II: “Arms Race or Arms Control?” US RUSSIA Don’t Build BombsBuild Bombs Don’t Build Bombs( 2, 2)(0, 3) Build Bombs(3, 0)(1, 1) “Collective action” and “Free-rider” problem No communication, no trust, one-shot game vs. “tit-for-tat” allowed and repeated games S_____________ dilemma due to uncertainty vs. Institution building for transparency 12

13. “Do International Relations Theories Well Explain American Foreign Policy?” Not necessarily … Kenneth Waltz (1979, 71-72) “A systems theory of international politics deals with forces that are in play at the international, and not at the national level… An international political theory does not imply or requires a theory of foreign policy any more than a market theory implies or requires a theory of the firm.”  Do you agree? Do we have any other approaches other than traditional IR theories?

14. The Foreign Affairs Presidency Walter Russell Mead (2002): Four Perspectives  Instead of a simple dichotomous realism vs. liberalism perspective, what about four schools of thoughts to better understand American foreign policymaking?  Internationalists tradition Hamiltonian : “Trade brings peace as well as profits.” Almost all presidents pursue free trade policies. The Obama administration’s focus on export as an engine for economic recovery Wilsonian : “Promoting universally American values and democracy rather than economic interests Wilson: Making the world safe for democracy FDR: The Arsenal of Democracy Speech (Dec 1940) The Bush Doctrine: “Wilsonianism in boots” 14

15. Walter Russell Mead (2002): Four Perspectives  Isolationists tradition Jeffersonian : “Protecting America’s unique values by avoiding foreign policy adventures and curtailing the federal government” Nation-building abroad vs. nation-building at home “The Vietnam Syndrome” Jacksonian : “Opposing interventions, but ready to fight to total victory for America’s own interests abroad” Unilateralism tradition in American history 15

16. Mead (2002): Hamiltonians http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKvSC_fh4pI (20 분 15 초부터 ) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKvSC_fh4pI  The Hamiltonians are people who think the United States needs to become the same kind of great power in the world that Britain was at its peak. We need to have a strong economy.  The federal government should be working hand-in-glove with large corporations and great business interests to advance their interest in overseas trade. We should try to build a global order of trade and economic relations that keep us so rich that we can afford to do what Britain used to do, which is to keep any one country from getting too strong in Europe and Asia to affect our vital interest, to threaten us.  And when a country threatens to take over, either Europe or Asia, then we should build up a coalition against them and bring them down, either by peace or war. That's been a vision that has moved a lot of people. George Washington to some degree had this view of American foreign policy. 16

17. Mead (2002): Jeffersonians  The Jeffersonian view, which says the United States government should not go hand-in-glove with corporations. That will undermine democracy. It'll get us involved with despots abroad. We'll be supporting evil dictators because some American corporation has economic interest that is advanced by this.  And, also, this is going to undermine democracy at home. So you look at somebody like Ralph Nader as a Jeffersonian, who sees the WTO as a corporate, big-government plot against democracy at home and democracy abroad.  Hamiltonian goal of a grand, global order gets us involved in conflicts with people overseas. We're involved in the Middle East, so people hate us in the Middle East, so they come and attack us as on September 11th. "If we'd never set foot in the Middle East, we wouldn't have these problems," say Jeffersonians. That's the logic of antiwar movements, and we've certainly seen a lot of Jeffersonian [values] over the generations. 17

18. Mead (2002): Wilsonians  Wilsonians hold the belief in the United Nations, international law. The United States should be pushing our values around the world and turning other countries into democracies whether they like it or not.  And the U.S. should also work multilaterally in institutions. We should be supporting things like the International Criminal Court, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.  And we should not be unilateralist in our approach. We should put human rights ahead of trade, and so on. 18

19. Mead (2002): Jacksonians  When Andrew Jackson was a general in 1818, he was fighting a war against the Creek Indians in Georgia. Because Florida at the time was still under Spanish rule and there were two Englishmen in Florida selling arms to the Indians, who were then attacking U.S. forces in Georgia. Jackson took the U.S. Army across the international frontier into Spanish territory without any permissions (or any U.N. resolutions). He went in there, arrested the two Brits, brought them back to the United States, tried them before a military tribunal and hanged them. And this did cause outrage in Europe. They said "These people have no respect for international law." But it made Jackson so popular in the U.S. that his election to the presidency was just a matter of time after 1818.  On December 7th, 1941, Japan attacks Pearl Harbor and suddenly the polls change. Jacksonians: when somebody attacks the hive, you come swarming out of the hive and you sting them to death. And Jacksonians, when it comes to war, don't believe in limited wars. They don't believe, particularly, in the laws of war. You don't worry about casualties on the other side. That's their problem. 19