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PREPARED FOR: John Doe DATE: 3/31/2014 CRITICAL FACTORS IN THE PURSUIT OF A BETTER INVESTMENT EXPERIENCE.

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Presentation on theme: "PREPARED FOR: John Doe DATE: 3/31/2014 CRITICAL FACTORS IN THE PURSUIT OF A BETTER INVESTMENT EXPERIENCE."— Presentation transcript:

1 PREPARED FOR: John Doe DATE: 3/31/2014 CRITICAL FACTORS IN THE PURSUIT OF A BETTER INVESTMENT EXPERIENCE

2 Understand Markets 1. Let markets work for you. 2. Take risks worth taking. 3. Invest, don’t speculate. Harness Their Power 4. Hold multiple asset classes. 5. Practice smart diversification. 6. Keep costs low. KEY INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES Know Yourself 7. Don’t confuse entertainment with advice. 8. Manage your emotions and biases. Work Your Plan 9. Avoid common investment mistakes. 10. Plan for the long term—and stay the course!

3 In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. US small, small value, and large value Research index provided by Fama/French. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed income factor data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). $221,783 US Small Cap Value Stocks $4,725 S&P 500 $91 US Five-Year Treasury Bonds $20 US Treasury Bills $13 US Inflation (CPI) $21,799 US Small Cap Stocks $20,857 US Large Cap Value Stocks - LET MARKETS WORK FOR YOU MONTHLY GROWTH OF WEALTH ($1) 1926−2013 1

4 US Large Value S&P 500 US Large Growth US Small Value CRSP 6-10 US Small Growth Intl. Value Intl. Small MSCI World ex US Intl. Growth CAN Value CAN Market CAN Growth EM Value EM Small EM “Market” EM Growth US Large Capitalization Stocks 1927–2013 US Small Capitalization Stocks 1927–2013 Non-US Developed Markets Stocks 1975–2013 Canadian Market Stocks 1 1977–2013 Emerging Markets Stocks 1989–2013 15.2412.0611.4319.5116.1113.3417.7318.3313.0611.3113.5812.189.7621.5619.4917.1215.17 26.5720.3020.3631.8030.6632.4524.1927.5821.1721.6321.6017.0421.1140.8739.2635.1033.37 TAKE RISKS WORTH TAKING SIZE AND VALUE EFFECTS AROUND THE WORLD 2 1. In CAD. All returns in USD except Canadian Market Stocks. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. US value and growth Research index data provided by Fama/French. Canadian index data provided by Fama/French. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. International Value data provided by Fama/French from Bloomberg and MSCI securities data. International Small data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg, Style Research, London Business School, and Nomura Securities data. MSCI World ex USA Index is gross of foreign withholding taxes on dividends; copyright MSCI 2014, all rights reserved. Emerging Markets index data simulated by Fama/French from countries in the IFC Investable Universe; simulations are free-float weighted both within each country and across all countries. Asset class filters were applied to data retroactively, rebalanced annually, and with the benefit of hindsight. Asset class returns are not representative of indices or actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Annualized Compound Returns (%) Average Return (%) Standard Deviation (%)

5 Over time, only a very small fraction of money managers outperform the market after fees, and it is difficult to identify them in advance. Source: Standard & Poor’s Indices Versus Active (SPIVA) Funds Scorecard Canada, Fourth Quarter 2012. INVEST, DON’T SPECULATE PERCENT OF WINNING ACTIVE MANAGERS January 2007–December 2012 3 0% 10% International EquityCanadian Equity 5% US Equity

6 199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 31.7036.1824.932.5836.1023.4724.1135.729.822.5668.3538.0911.7215.0854.45 24.8428.3021.562.3931.3222.4921.4429.884.27-21.9446.2223.434.3014.9541.97 24.7912.2419.35-3.6330.0917.5319.5626.083.36-22.8535.0521.502.0414.7241.65 22.537.414.36-3.7927.8315.2810.9725.862.15-24.9727.4317.610.9014.5532.22 19.965.171.63-3.8626.7414.4710.9523.18-5.72-25.5525.1216.40-3.5414.1331.20 17.281.541.05-12.4518.8511.4910.7222.11-7.92-29.1813.9914.53-5.1913.8231.02 13.940.24-6.40-16.0213.3610.9410.6918.15-10.09-30.0611.9110.26-8.7113.0416.05 4.59-5.54-11.56-16.7711.608.634.1617.25-10.14-32.5310.989.16-9.9711.6812.99 3.48-7.76-12.57-16.817.468.423.0516.56-15.63-33.009.262.13-10.007.198.30 0.39-8.82-13.41-20.465.462.802.5715.57-17.01-35.243.470.43-12.430.918.11 -8.30-11.17-16.51-22.852.862.252.293.93-29.73-45.710.36-2.14-13.780.800.96 199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 Canadian Fixed Income 4.595.174.362.392.862.252.573.934.272.560.360.430.900.910.96 Canadian Large Cap 31.707.41-12.57-12.4526.7414.4724.1117.259.82-33.0035.0517.61-8.717.1912.99 Canadian Value 3.4828.301.05-3.6327.8317.5321.4418.152.15-32.5346.2216.40-5.1911.6816.05 Canadian Small Cap 24.791.5421.56-3.8636.108.6310.7223.183.36-45.7168.3538.09-12.430.808.11 US Large Cap 13.94-5.54-6.40-22.855.462.802.2915.58-10.09-22.859.269.164.3013.0441.65 US Value 0.3912.241.63-16.027.468.424.1622.11-15.63-21.943.4710.262.0414.5541.97 US Small Cap 24.84-7.7624.93-20.4630.0910.943.0516.57-17.01-24.9727.4323.43-3.5414.9554.45 US Real Estate -8.3036.1819.352.5811.6023.4710.9735.72-29.73-25.5510.9821.5011.7214.138.30 International Large Cap 19.96-11.17-16.51-16.8113.3611.4910.6925.86-5.72-29.1811.912.13-9.9714.7231.02 International Value 17.280.24-13.41-16.7718.8515.2810.9529.88-10.14-30.0613.99-2.14-10.0015.0831.20 International Small Cap 22.53-8.82-11.56-3.7931.3222.4919.5626.08-7.92-35.2425.1214.53-13.7813.8232.22 Highest Return Lowest Return HOLD MULTIPLE ASSET CLASSES RANDOMNESS OF ANNUAL RETURNS 4 In Canadian dollars. Charts are for illustrative purposes only. Canadian Fixed Income is Canadian One-Month Treasury Bills. Canadian Large Cap is the S&P/TSX Composite Index. Canadian Value is the MSCI Canada IMI Value Index (gross dividends), June 1998–Present; Barra Canada Value Index, January 1997–May 1998. Canadian Small Cap is the MSCI Canada Small Cap Index (gross dividends), January 1999–Present; Barra Canada Small Cap Index, January 1997–December 1998. US Large Cap is the S&P 500 Index. US Value is Russell 3000 Value Index. US Small Cap is CRSP 6-10 Index. US Real Estate is the Dow Jones US Select REIT Index. International Large Cap is the MSCI EAFE Index (net dividends), and International Value is the MSCI EAFE Value Index (net dividends). International Small Cap is compiled by Dimensional from StyleResearch securities data; includes securities of MSCI EAFE countries in the 10%-1% of ME range; market-capitalization weighted; each country capped at 50%; value defined as the top 30% of book-to-market; rebalanced semiannually. Canadian T-bills provided by PC-Bond a business unit of TSX Inc.; copyright © TSX Inc., all rights reserved. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2014, all rights reserved. Canadian Barra data provided by MSCI Barra. The S&P data provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

7 10% Each Canadian Large Cap Index Canadian Large Cap Value Index Canadian Small Cap Index International Small Cap Index US Large Cap Index US Value Index US Small Cap Index US Real Estate Index International Value Index International Large Cap Index 100% Canadian Large Cap Index 1991−2013 1 Canadian Model Equity Index Portfolio Annualized Return (%)8.95 Annualized Standard Deviation (%)14.71 1991−2013 1 Global Model Diversified Equity Index Portfolio Annualized Return (%)9.88 Annualized Standard Deviation (%)11.74 It’s not enough to diversify by security. Deeper diversification involves geographic and asset class diversity. Holding a global portfolio helps reduce risk and increase expected returns. PRACTICE SMART DIVERSIFICATION S&P/TSX INDEX vs. A GLOBAL PORTFOLIO 5 S&P/TSXComposite GloballyDiversifiedPortfolio For illustrative purposes only. In Canadian dollars. Canadian Large Cap is the S&P/TSX Composite Index. Canadian Value is the MSCI Canada IMI Value Index (gross dividends) for June 1998-present, and Barra Canada Value Index for January 1982-May 1998. Canadian Small Cap is the MSCI Canada Small Index (gross dividends) for January 1999-present, and Barra Canadian Small Cap Index for July 1990-December 1998. US Large Cap is the S&P 500 Index. International Value is the MSCI EAFE Value Index (net dividends), and International Large Cap is the MSCI EAFE Index (net dividends). International Small is: 1970- June 1981, 50% UK small cap stocks provided by the London Business School and 50% Japan small cap stocks provided by Nomura Securities; July 1981-present, compiled by Dimensional from StyleResearch securities data; includes securities of MSCI EAFE Index countries, market-capitalization weighted, each country capped at 50%. US Value is the Russell 3000 Value Index. US Small Cap is the CRSP 6-10 Index. US Real Estate is the Dow Jones US Select REIT Index. S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX. Barra data provided by MSCI Barra. S&P data provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2014, all rights reserved. Russell data copyright © Russell Investment Group 1995-2014, all rights reserved. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Dow Jones US Select data provided by Dow Jones Indexes. Standard deviation is a statistical measure of risk. Generally speaking, the higher the standard deviation, the greater the risk. 1. Date range selected is the longest common time series of whole years of data available. Rebalanced quarterly. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not to be construed as investment advice. Returns of model portfolios are based on back-tested model allocation mixes designed with the benefit of hindsight and do not represent actual investment performance.

8 $4,983,951 $3,745,318 $2,806,794 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 135 10 2030 TIME (years) 1% Fee 2% Fee 3% Fee Assumes 6.5% Annualized Return over 30 Years In US dollars. For illustrative purposes only. Over long time periods, high costs can drag down wealth accumulation in a portfolio. Costs to consider include: Management fees Fund expenses Taxes KEEP COSTS LOW NET GROWTH OF $1 MILLION 6

9 The television, print, and online financial media are in the business of entertainment. The emphasis is often on short-term, sensational, and emotionally charged headlines. These messages can compromise long-term focus and discipline, and lead to poor investment decisions. DON’T CONFUSE ENTERTAINMENT WITH ADVICE 7

10 Overconfidence Self attribution Hindsight Extrapolation Familiarity Mental accounting Regret avoidance Confirmation MANAGE YOUR EMOTIONS 8 COMMON COGNITIVE ERRORS AND BIASES

11 No investment plan Lack of manager scrutiny Chasing performance Overconcentration Market timing Wrong time horizon Forecasting Excessive risk taking AVOID INVESTMENT MISTAKES 9 COMMON INVESTMENT PITFALLS

12 8.22% S&P 500 20-Year Annualized Return (time weighted) 4.25% “Average” Equity Fund Investor 20-Year Annualized Return (dollar weighted) Source: Jeff Sommer, “Joining the Bandwagon? Don’t Lose Your Balance,” The New York Times, March 9, 2013, citing Dalbar, Inc. “Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior 2013,” www.dalbar.com. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Indices are not available for direct investment; their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Comparing time-weighted index returns to dollar-weighted fund returns suggests that the “average” equity fund investor buys high and sells low while owning a given fund for less than five years. KEEP A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE — AND STAY THE COURSE! 10


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