1. Will new biofuels provide the solution?

2. New biofuels the solution?  End of Oil Reserves (but biofuels poor substitute)  Security of Supply (but biofuels poor solution)  Climate change (but biofuels poor palliative) Original three motivators for biofuels

3. New biofuels the solution? End of Oil Reserves  In 2007 greater reserves than in 1965  40 + 60 + 100 yrs → “Yamani was right”  The peak oil theory  between 2021 and 2112  more probable between 2030 and 2075  In fact 40 = “infinity”  End of “cheap–oil” era  EU need to be in control

4. New biofuels the solution? Security of supply By 2020 EU 70 % dependent on imports But :  Increase in IEA ESI vol  Biofuels > 4,2 % need to be imported  No link dependency and economic growth

5. New biofuels the solution? 3rd main argument for biofuels: climate  Biofuels ineffective solution  Climate debate provides  Emotional context  Political reality  Business opportunity !!  First two other arguments

6. New biofuels the solution? Two subsidiary arguments  “Transport sector has to do its share”  “ It is good for Agricultural employment ” Not very convincing but we are stuck with it! Not very convincing but we are stuck with it!  2% increasing to 5,75%  Ambition 10% in 2020  Biofuels maintain inefficiencies of current transport system

7. New biofuels the solution? Climate Combustion of biomass = 5 * more efficient Rapeseed oil, palm oil and sugar only lead to marginal CO 2 reduction because the rest of the plant is burned to make electricity  From climate viewpoint Biofuels only marginal help Destruction of Rainforest is deathblow to climate (James Lovelock)

8. New biofuels the solution? Political reality, yet serious concerns 1.Moral 2.Climate 3.Environment 4.Biodiversity 5.Logistics 6.Product quality 7.Economy 8.Lisbon accord

9. New biofuels the solution? Morality of biofuels 18 million people die each year from malnutrition Food requirements increase by 50 % till 2020 Biofuel demand increases food prices  Is turning food into fuel a moral proposition’?  Is “our” car more important than “their” food ?

10. New biofuels the solution? Source: IHT 11-04-2008

11. New biofuels the solution? Environment  Rapeseed cultivation  100% increase acidification (Senter Novem)  Biofuel cultivation leads to  Deforestation  Higher emissions of greenhouse gases  Soil dehydration (CE report)  Cultivation of biomass inevitably leads to destruction of natural habitat (Greenpeace) destruction of natural habitat (Greenpeace)  Rainforests are the lungs of the planet (Lovelock)

12. New biofuels the solution? The logistical quandary  Bio ethanol only adds to the Gasoline surplus in EU25;  Security of Supply is better achieved by producing bio-diesel (substitute current diesel imports)

13. Conventional B.Br. from EU sources cannot reach the 5,75 % target Based on WtW A modest increase in production capability is possible through general agricultural yield improvement

14. New biofuels the solution? Product Quality  EtOH in gasoline  Vapour pressure  Water solubility  Sensitivity of some plastic couplings  Blend characteristics  Hence potential preference for ETBE  FAME  “strange components” (Cl, P)  Lack of thermal and oxidation stability  Dilution of Lubricating oil  Hence limitation to 5 % for time being

15. New biofuels the solution? Economy First generation Biofuels heavily uncompetitive hence subsidised Is there still a learning curve ? Does first generation open the way for the second generation?? Can subsidies be stopped ?

16. New biofuels the solution? Squaring the circle

17. New biofuels the solution? Sustainability criteria New biofuels the solution? Sustainability criteria  3 “hard” criteria  Reduction of GHG emissions  No damage to environment  No destruction of biodiversity  3 “soft” criteria  No competition with food chain  Increase in welfare (GDP)  No decrease in well being (Labour conditions)

18. New biofuels the solution?  Who will make them?  How to stimulate R. & D. ?  Will there be enough ?  Is this the best use of biomass ?

19. New biofuels the solution? New biofuels  New technologies should lead to “learning curve ”  Lignocellulose fermentation (but logistical problem remains)  Biomass Hydrogenation  Biomass intake into refineries  Biomass gasification  Algae Full scale development requires another 10 years

20. “Sense” of Second Generation Based on WtW

21. Conclusion  Current biofuels make no sense  But for time being are here to stay !  New generation might make sense  In line with Lisbon  Meet “sustainability” criteria  Reduce NOx and Pm emissions  No product quality problems  Reduce EU logistical imbalance  BUT  Better things to do with Biomass  More innovative solutions to reduce Transport CO 2  Will it be cost competitive?