1. Population Change in The United States and Texas: Implications for Education, the Labor Force and Economic Development Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Steve H. Murdock, Director Hobby Center for the Study of Texas and Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of Sociology Rice University Big Brothers and Big Sisters Dallas, Texas June 16, 2011 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 1

2. Major Topics of the Presentation __________________________ Population Change Increasing Racial/Ethnic Diversity Aging of the Population Implications of Demographic Change for Education, The Labor Force and Economic Development Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 2

3. Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, 1850-2010 Total Population Percent Change YearTexasU.S. TexasU.S. 1850 212,592 23,191,876--- 1860 604,215 31,443,321184.235.6 1870 818,579 39,818,44935.526.6 1880 1,591,749 50,155,78394.526.0 1890 2,235,527 62,947,71440.425.5 1900 3,048,710 75,994,57536.420.7 1910 3,896,542 91,972,26627.821.0 1920 4,663,228 105,710,62019.714.9 1930 5,824,715 122,775,04624.916.1 1940 6,414,824 131,669,27510.17.2 1950 7,711,194 150,697,36120.214.5 1960 9,579,677 179,323,17524.219.0 1970 11,196,730 203,302,03116.913.4 1980 14,229,191 226,545,80527.111.4 1990 16,986,510 248,709,87319.49.8 2000 20,851,820 281,421,90622.813.2 2010 25,145,561 308,745,53820.69.7 Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 3

4. Components of Change, U.S. and Texas, 2000-2009 United States Texas ComponentNumeric Change Percent of Total Change Numeric Change Percent of Total Change Total Change25,584,644100.03,930,482100.0 Natural Increase15,875,57962.12,124,12454.0 Net Domestic Migration-------848,70221.6 Net International Migration9,709,06537.9957,65624.4 Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census. 4 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

5. Change 2000-2010 State 2000 Population 2010 PopulationNumericPercent United States281,421,906308,745,53827,323,6329.7 Texas20,851,82025,145,5614,293,74120.6 California33,871,64837,253,9563,382,30810.0 Florida15,982,37818,801,3102,818,93217.6 Georgia8,186,4539,687,6531,501,20018.3 North Carolina8,049,3139,535,4831,486,17018.5 Arizona5,130,6326,392,0171,261,38524.6 Virginia7,078,5158,001,024922,50913.0 Washington5,894,1216,724,540830,41914.1 Colorado4,301,2615,029,196727,93516.9 Nevada1,998,2572,700,551702,29435.1 Ten States in the United States with the Largest Numeric Population Increase 2000-2010 Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 5

6. Change 2000-2010 State 2000 Population 2010 Population NumericPercent United States281,421,906308,745,53827,323,6329.7 Nevada1,998,2572,700,551702,29435.1 Arizona5,130,6326,392,0171,261,38524.6 Utah2,233,1692,763,885530,71623.8 Idaho1,293,9531,567,582273,62921.1 Texas20,851,82025,145,5614,293,74120.6 North Carolina8,049,3139,535,4831,486,17018.5 Georgia8,186,4539,687,6531,501,20018.3 Florida15,982,37818,801,3102,818,93217.6 Colorado4,301,2615,029,196727,93516.9 South Carolina4,012,0124,625,364613,35215.3 Ten States in the United States with the Largest Percentage Population Increase 2000-2010 Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 6

7. Regional Population Change as a Proportion of U.S. Population Change, 2000-2010 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 7

8. PopulationPopulation Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity*20002010NumericPercent Percent of Total Change20002010 NH White194,552,774196,817,5522,264,7781.28.369.163.7 Hispanic (All Races)35,295,81850,477,59415,181,77643.055.612.516.3 NH Black33,947,83737,685,8483,738,01111.013.712.112.2 NH Asian9,123,16914,455,1245,331,95558.419.53.24.7 NH Other8,502,3089,309,420807,1129.52.93.1 Total281,421,906308,745,53827,323,6329.7100.0 *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L. 94-171 Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010 8 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

9. PopulationPopulation Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity*20002010NumericPercent Percent of Total Change20002010 NH White44,000,98739,716,562-4,284,425-9.7-93.163.253.5 Hispanic (All Races)9,650,93517,130,8917,479,95677.5162.513.923.1 NH Black10,606,39110,362,183-244,208-2.3-5.315.314.0 NH Asian1,417,9613,166,1291,748,168123.338.02.04.3 NH Other3,901,0293,805,702-95,327-2.4-2.15.65.1 Total69,577,30374,181,4674,604,1646.6100.0 *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L. 94-171 Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010 9 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

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14. Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 14 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

15. Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 15 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

16. POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 16

17. Total and Percent of the United States Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and 2009 1999 2009 Population in Poverty% Median Household Income* Population in Poverty% Median Household Income Anglo15,414,1198.1$58,52319,462,96610.0$54,671 Hispanic7,797,87422.6$43,44211,130,89623.5$39,923 Black8,146,14624.9$37,9569,407,95525.8$33,463 Asian1,257,23712.6$66,9611,539,22611.4$68,780 Other1,284,43618.5NA1,327,12018.4NA Total 33,899,81212.4$54,172 42,868,16314.3$50,221 *In 2009 Dollars Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 17

18. Educational Attainment for the United States Population Age 25 and Older by Race/Ethnicity, 2009 Race Ethnicity Population Age 25 and Older Less than high school High school diploma Some college or associates degree Bachelor or more Non-Hispanic White139,962,1999.629.330.031.1 Black22,975,41018.631.632.217.6 Hispanic*26,106,58739.126.222.112.6 Asian9,404,49314.716.019.649.7 Total201,952,38314.728.528.927.9 ________ Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2009. *Includes Hispanic persons of all races. 18 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

19. Percent of Net Change in Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment in the United States Due to Each Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050 19 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

20. Percent of Net Change in the U.S. Civilian Labor Force from 2000-2050 Due to Each Race/Ethnicity Group Under Middle Scenario 20 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

21. Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000* 21 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

22. Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 22

23. Steve Murdock Phone: 210-867-4385 E-mail: shm3@rice.edushm3@rice.edu Website: http://hobbycenter.rice.edu 23 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University