1. Water conflict & cooperation: overview Ed Maurer, Civil Engineering Information, graphics, and some slides from: S. Kaiser, Sustainable sanitation and water management (www.sswm.info)www.sswm.info P. Gleick, Pacific Institute (www.pacinst.org)www.pacinst.org A, Wolfe, Oregon State Univ. and Worldwatch Institute (www.worldwatch.org)www.worldwatch.org

2. Water Supply Non-renewable water: ‘fossil’ reserves consumed faster than rates of renewal. Increasing contamination also reduces supply. The planet has ∼ 1.4 billion km 3 of water Water is mostly renewable: human use of water typically has small effect on natural recharge rates.

3. This theoretical curve shows the progression of unsustainable water extraction from a groundwater aquifer, hypothesizing a peak-type production curve for water after the production rates surpass the natural groundwater recharge rate and production costs rise. Peter H. Gleick, and Meena Palaniappan PNAS 2010;107:11155-11162 ©2010 by National Academy of Sciences

4. Famiglietti, Nature, 2014 CA aquifer depletion 3-5 km 3 per year

5. 5 Interconnection of physical and economic scarcity Physical scarcity: limit of the annually renewable water for different uses (human and ecosystem uses) has been surpassed and backstopping options such as groundwater mining from non-renewable resources are not available or already exhausted. Economic water scarcity: sufficient amounts of water are available, but economic, human and institutional capacities for allocating it are severely limited.

6. 6 Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity Source: FAO (2007) By 2025, more than half of the nations in the world will face freshwater stress or shortages. Partly due to population growth

7. Breaking News! 21 September 2016 NIC WP 2016-01 Key Points: Long-term changes in climate will … put greater stress on critical Earth systems like oceans, freshwater, and biodiversity. These in turn will almost certainly have significant effects, both direct and indirect, across social, economic, political, and security realms during the next 20 years. These effects will be all the more pronounced as people continue to concentrate in climate-vulnerable locations, such as coastal areas, water-stressed regions, and ever-growing cities.

8. International Basins Database: Basins at Risk Oregon State University October 2000 Source: Wolf et al. 1999

9. Fresh water is widely shared internationally. – Long history of conflicts over fresh water There is growing competition for water. – Rising populations and demand – Peak water constraints – Climate change International efforts to resolve water-related disputes are often inadequate. Critical Issues

10. Water as a goal – Middle East (2700 BPE to present) Water as a weapon – Han River, Korea; Ataturk Dam Water systems as targets – WWII, Vietnam, Persian Gulf, Iraq Water in development disputes – Apartheid SA, Cauvery River, Gabcikovo Classification of water disputes/conflicts Chronology of water conflicts: www.worldwater.orgwww.worldwater.org

11. Water and Disputes Water is never the single--and commonly not the major--cause of conflict.  But it can exacerbate existing political, ethnic or religious tensions  It can also provide a basis for opening dialogue and negotiations  Between 1945 and 1999 cooperative events between nations out- numbered conflicts by more than two to one © Edwin Huffman/World Bank

12. Source: Gleick 2013, Water Conflict Chronology

13. Water Conflict or Cooperation? Hundreds of treaties in place guiding equitable water use between nations sharing water resources. Institutions created by these agreements can be important factors in ensuring cooperation rather than conflict. IWMI (2006) Water more often unites than divides people and societies. UN (2013) Increasing stresses on supplies and demands Challenges for regional disputes Groundwater vs. Surface Water

14. Technical (scarcity) – Improve efficiency of water use in all sectors – Explore new supply options Economic (allocation) – Reduce water subsidies; re-evaluate rates – Re-evaluate agricultural policies Institutional (management) – Joint basin management – Dispute resolution mechanisms Political – Effective and comprehensive joint agreements – Equitable water rights allocations and control Reducing the Risks of Water Conflicts

15. US gross domestic product (GDP) in 2005 dollars from 1900 to 2005 (left axis) plotted with total water withdrawals for all purposes in cubic kilometers per year (right axis). Peter H. Gleick, and Meena Palaniappan PNAS 2010;107:11155-11162 ©2010 by National Academy of Sciences

16. Dispute Resolution Without institutions to resolve conflict, unilateral action can heighten tensions and regional instability, requiring decades to resolve.  Indus treaty took 10 years of negotiations  the Ganges 30 years  the Jordan 40 years

17. Obligation to Share Data Obligation to Resolve Disputes Peacefully Equitable Utilization of Water Prevention of Significant Harm Obligation to Notify and Inform Cooperative Management UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (1997) Political Approaches: International Water Law

18. Happy Feast of St. Francis! Praised be you, my Lord, through Sister Water, who is very useful and humble and precious and chaste. if we no longer speak the language of fraternity and beauty in our relationship with the world, our attitude will be that of masters, consumers, ruthless exploiters, unable to set limits on their immediate needs