1. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation C-Change in GEES Changing Coastal Environments Session 6 Session 6: Coastal Hazard Mitigation

2. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation How to use these teaching slides  These slides are not intended to form a complete lecture on the session topic.  These resources are designed to suggest a framework to help tutors develop their own lecture material  The resource slides comprise where appropriate; key points, case studies, images, references and further resources.  There are limited case studies included. Students can develop their own portfolio of case studies as part of coursework activities  These resources may be used for educational purposes only, for other uses please contact the author  These slides were last updated in December 2009

3. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Disclaimer  Links within this presentation may lead to other sites. These are provided for convenience only. We do not sponsor, endorse or otherwise approve of any information or statements appearing in those sites. The author is not responsible for the availability of, or the content located on or through, any such external site.  While every effort and care has been taken in preparing the content of this presentation, the author disclaims all warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information in any of the content. The author also (to the extent permitted by law) shall not be liable for any losses or damages arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information. The author is also not liable for any losses or damages arising from the use of, or reliance on sites linked to this site, or the internet generally.  Pictures, photographs and diagrams within this presentation have been produced by the author unless otherwise stipulated  No content within this resource is knowingly an infringement of copyright. Any infringement can be immediately rectified on notification of the author of the resource

4. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Session Outline Coastal Hazards Case Studies Management Considerations Session Outline

5. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Understanding past sea-level change Monitoring present day sea-level change Predicting future sea-level rise Coastal management, hazard mitigation

6. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Global Sea-Level Predictions How applicable are these global (and imprecise) predictions at a local and regional scale? Projections of future sea level change are derived from models that are based on processes observed in past records and trends observed in contemporary records As time increases (in both directions) from the present, so does uncertainty Management strategies based on an uncertain future FAQ 5.1, Figure 1. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, Set al.(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

7. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation IPCC Statements on Coastal Vulnerability Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise The impact of climate change on coasts is exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures Adaptation for the coasts of developing countries will be more challenging than for coasts of developed countries, due to constraints on adaptive capacity Adaptation costs for vulnerable coasts are much less than the costs of inaction The unavoidability of sea-level rise, even in the longer-term, frequently conflicts with present-day human development patterns and trends Nicholls, R.J., P.P. Wong, V.R. Burkett, J.O. Codignotto, J.E. Hay, R.F. McLean, S. Ragoonaden and C.D. Woodroffe, 2007: Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

8. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Coastal hazards: - Sea-level rise - Erosion - Storms - Extreme high tides Key Coastal Hazards

9. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Coastal Land Uses and Issues Increasing population and increasing demand on space Developments in low lying coastal areas (e.g. Thames estuary) Developed land has a high value and high costs associated with flooding compared to undeveloped/agricultural land Adaptation and vulnerability – livelihood dependency on coast and lack of alternatives in developing countries In Bangladesh more than 17 million people live less than 1 metre above sea level Table 6.5. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

10. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Case Study – the London Penzance railway line How much longer is it economically viable to sustain this rail link? What are the alternatives?

11. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Case Study – Thames Barrier Consider: Lifespan of the defence The magnitude and predicted frequency of events it is designed for The value (and future value) of what it is protecting The Thames Barrier was built in the 1980s to protect London against flooding of 1 in 100 year magnitude. Sea level rise may make it obsolete by 2070 Photo: MarkAllanson (flickr.com)

12. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Public planning Flood defence Evacuation procedures Disaster relief Coastal Hazard Management Approaches

13. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Coastal Management Frameworks In the UK – based on Shoreline Management Plans developed by local authorities and ‘Regional Coastal Groups’ 2 stage process: (1)Assessment (science): Local sea-level projections Hazard mapping (2) Management (politics): Risk assessment Stakeholder analysis Cost-benefit analysis UK policy developments on coastal erosion and flooding: DEFRA’s 2005 “Making Space for Water” (MSFW) programme ‘Draft Flood and Water Management Bill’ - sets out government proposals to improve flood and coastal erosion risk management

14. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Coastal Land Uses Increasing population and increasing demand on space Developments in low lying coastal areas (e.g. Thames estuary) Developed land has a high value and high costs associated with flooding compared to undeveloped/agricultural land Adaptation and vulnerability – livelihood dependency on coast and lack of alternatives in developing countries In Bangladesh more than 17 million people live less than 1 metre above sea level Table 6.5. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

15. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Coastal Management Options

16. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Concluding remarks…… Sea-level change is an important driving mechanism for coastal change The concept of a ‘global’ sea-level curve does not exist, need to understand regional & local processes – sea level is not ‘level’ Future sea-level predictions CAN and MUST be improved. Involves the integration of key players (policy makers, scientists, modellers) Ultimate aim: To provide predictions that are of real, practical value (coastal management and hazard mitigation)

17. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Plot and extrapolate data from a nearby tide gauge using the resources from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level website: On the basis of your tide gauge data, by how much is sea level expected to rise (or fall) by in the future in your study area? What are the main risks and future concerns in your chosen study area? What local factors may exacerbate these problems? Conduct an evaluation of the future vulnerability of your chosen stretch of coastline to risks from sea-level rise, increased storminess and enhanced coastal erosion: How viable is it to continue to manage your chosen stretch of coastline in the long term? How sustainable are the current defences (if any present) or management plans? Activity An evaluation of the potential risk(s) from future sea-level rise, increased storminess and/or coastal erosion

18. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation This resource was created by the University of Keele and released as an open educational resource through the 'C-change in GEES' project exploring the open licensing of climate change and sustainability resources in the Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences. The C-change in GEES project was funded by HEFCE as part of the JISC/HE Academy UKOER programme and coordinated by the GEES Subject Centre. This resource is licensed under the terms of the Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/).http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/ However the resource, where specified below, contains other 3rd party materials under their own licenses. The licenses and attributions are outlined below: 1.The name of Keele University and its logos are unregistered trade marks of the University. The University reserves all rights to these items beyond their inclusion in these CC resources. 2.The JISC logo, the C-change logo and the logo of the Higher Education Academy Subject Centre for the Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences are licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution -non-commercial-No Derivative Works 2.0 UK England & Wales license. All reproductions must comply with the terms of that license

19. Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, k.szkornik@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation AuthorDr Katie Szkornik Stephen Whitfield Institute – OwnerKeele University, School of Physical and Geographical Sciences TitleCoastal Hazard Mitigation Powerpoint Presentation Date CreatedDecember 2009 DescriptionCoastal Hazard Mitigation - Powerpoint Presentation - Part Six of Changing Coastal Environments Educational Level3 Keywords (Primary keywords – UKOER & GEESOER) UKOER, GEESOER, coastal defence, flooding, cost-benefit analysis Creative Commons LicenseAttribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales Item Metadata