1. Chemical Data Assimilation activities at MSC and plans for Chemical Weather Richard Ménard*, Alain Robichaud, Pierre Gauthier, Alexander Kallaur, Martin Charon Dorval Saroja Polavarapu, Yan Yang, Yves Rochon Downview Jacek Kaminski, Jack McConnell York University/MAQNet (*) Address: 2121 Transcanada Highway, Dorval (Quebec), H9P 1J3 Email: Richard.Menard@ec.gc.ca

2. Air quality prediction system: Standard approach Emissions Chemical transport Met field

3. Air quality prediction and assimilation system Phase A: Objective analysis Emissions Chemical transport Met field Analysis: Least-squares Observations Error statistics

4. Emissions Chemical transport Met field Analysis: Least-squares Observations Error statistics Air quality prediction and assimilation system Phase B: Data assimilation

5. Emissions Chemical transport Met field Analysis: Least-squares Observations Error statistics Air quality prediction and assimilation system Phase C: Data assimilation + Emission correction Emission correction Emission-State Cross error

6. Error statistics obs – model (obs loc) = (true + obs error) - (true + model error) = obs error – model error  distance (km)

7. Objective analysisObservations Analysis increment Error statistics Emissions Met fields Chemical model Ozone objective analysis and assimilation using CHRONOS

8. Monitoring of the error statisticschi-square

10. Analysis error variance. Reduction due to observations provides a method for observation network design Ozone objective analysis has been conducted continuously each hour since the summer of 2003 (also for the summer 2002) Ozone objective analysis and assimilation for a short period of time have been used in ICARTT

11. Next step: Correction for bias Statistical forecast of observations

13. Chemical Weather system based on the operational NWP model  Development of coupled GEM with tropospheric chemistry (York U.) under CFCAS funding  Development of stratospheric GCCM with 3D and 4D Var meteorology-chemistry data assimilation. International effort involving MSC, York U., and the Belgium Institute for Space Aeronomy currently under contract negotiation with the European Space Agency