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Published byNoel Barrett Modified over 8 years ago
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REFERENCE DECK FOR LIBERTY CALL June 24, 2008
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1 COMPARABLES ONLY SUPPORT A $100MM VALUATION A DCF WITH MARKET-RATE GROWTH (20% REVENUE GROWTH) IS SIMILAR
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2 Comparable Transaction Multiples
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3 IF FUN HITS FORECAST, THE DCF IMPLIES IT’S WORTH OVER $200 BUT THAT IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE: 1. GROWTH IS SUPPOSED TO ACCELERATE THIS YEAR BUT IS MISSING AS OF APRIL
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4 FUN Forecasts An Aggressive Revenue CAGR of 47% From 2007-2010 With Dramatic Growth of 85% in CY2008 FUN’s projected 47% CAGR from 2007-2010 outperforms the casual games industry average of roughly 20% 2008 Forecast growth of 85% would be more than 30% greater than historical growth Revenue (1) (millions) $18 $25 $43 $79 $110 $137 47% 85% 53% (1) Note: Acquired free games revenue of $4.3MM, $10.7MM, and $14.8MM excluded from the analysis in 2008, 2009, and 2010 respectively. If included, total revenues equal $83MM, $120MM, and $151MM
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5 FUN Forecasts Acceleration in 2008; With 41% Growth in Q2 Alone 9% Q/Q growth is roughly in line with recent historical performance but significantly below the 42% Q/Q projected by FUN management Although April actuals provide limited information for adjusting forecast, the data provides an early indication that Q2 actuals may be significantly below budget April 2008 actuals are off budget by 24% Revenue$4.4MM$5.8MM ActualBudget April 2008 Revenue Q/Q 2007-2008 (millions) 24% 9% $9 $10 $11 $12 $13 $19 $22 $25 Revenue Growth % Q/Q 2007- 2008 If this April trend continues, Q2 revenue will be $14.4MM and Q1/Q2 growth will be 9%
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6 IF FUN HITS FORECAST, THE DCF IMPLIES IT’S WORTH OVER $200 BUT THAT IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE: 2. OPERATING METRIC GROWTH IS AGGRESSIVE
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7 Operating Metrics
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8 IF FUN HIT’S FORECAST, THE DCF IMPLIES IT’S WORTH OVER $200 BUT THAT IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE: 3. GROWTH IS ALSO CLASSIFIED INTO SEVERAL AREAS; ALL SPECULATIVE
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9 SPT Case Adjustments and Rationale (1/2) Driver % Credit Rationale Annualized Q4 2007 Revenue Improved Q4 2007 actual enabled FUN management to reset 2008 projections to a higher base High Baseline Tournament Revenue Marketing/ Player Value Initiatives Optimizing Current Distribution Partners Direct to Consumer Advertising (Offline) Management projects a 20-25% increase in DTC performance over historical levels Med 3 rd Party Ad Networks FUN has demonstrated experience with 3 rd party network customer acquisition, projections include greater spend with similar return on investment High Player Value Impact Concerns that spend per player per year can expand from $350 to $385 Uncertain of FUN’s ability to increase retention as it was not a previous focus area Low MyPoints Concerns that MyPoints can improve player conversion rates by FUN’s 20% projection given history Low CotterWeb Same as aboveLow GSN.com FUN’s control over GSN.com operations will enable it to optimize player yields although not as aggressively as projected Med
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10 SPT Case Adjustments and Rationale (2/2) Driver % Credit Rationale Wheel of Fortune/Jeopardy! SPT will likely license WOF/Jeopardy skill-game rights to FUN in 2008 High New Content Acquisition New Businesses Online Ad Sales Free Games: Acquired Sites Management is shifting focus to 3 rd party rep deals Although they may acquire, targets not yet identified None Free Games: Ad Rep Deals FUN has achieved some initial success with ad rep deals but business is too new to accurately predict Med GSN Digital Historical performance and management’s operational knowledge of GSN.com suggest targets will likely be achieved High Increase in premium sales CPM rates Multiplatform sponsorships are beginning to take place and should yield some lift to online CPMs Med All other new titles (e.g. The Price is Right, Hasbro, Spider Solitaire) FUN management will secure titles although limited track-record with branded board games increases risk of projected revenues Med New Distribution Deals Yahoo Yahoo is former partner under contract with King.com and is unlikely to enter another exclusive relationship Low All unnamed distribution deals Other large expected partners have yet to be identified and thus have execution risk Low
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11 Summary of Revenue Growth by Driver 2008 - 2010
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12 Q/Q Growth Required to Hit 28% 2008-2010 CAGR Declining Q/Q; In-line with CY ’07 Trend SPT Cases Were Based on Adjustments to FUN’s “By Type” Revenue Build However, Similar CAGRs Could Be Achieved With Quarterly Growth Trends Q/Q Growth Required to Hit 38% 2008-2010 CAGR Consistent 8% Q/Q; In-line with Q1 ‘07
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