1. Ecological Forecasting Gaps: HABs, Hypoxia, Pathogens Mary Erickson NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science September 26, 2016

2. Overview Ecological Forecasting 101 NOAA’s Ecological Forecasting Roadmap Transitioning Discussion Questions

3. What Are Ecological Forecasts? Ecological forecasts predict likely changes in ecosystems in response to environmental drivers and resulting impacts to people, economies and communities. Ecological forecasts provide early warnings of the possible effects of ecosystem changes (e.g., harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, etc.) on coastal systems and human well-being with sufficient lead time to allow for corrective or mitigative actions.

4. High Demand for Ecoforecasting

5. Ecoforecasting: Missions and Mandates “Our job is to build an understanding of the Earth, the atmosphere, and the oceans to transform that understanding into critical environmental intelligence: timely, actionable information, developed from reliable and authoritative science, that gives us foresight about future conditions” Dr. Kathy Sullivan, NOAA Administrator Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Amendments (HABRCA) Act of 2014 Chesapeake Bay Executive Order Coastal Zone Management Act Coral Reef Protection Executive Order/Coral Reef Conservation Act Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization Act Clean Water Act National Marine Sanctuaries Act Marine Mammal Protection Act

6. NOAA’s Ecological Forecasting: Who we are, what we will achieve Strong science to enable delivery of forecasts Delivery of more products and services building on existing NOAA and partner capacity Delivery of more consistent, efficient, reliable, and national forecasts (tailored to region-specific needs) Ecological Forecasting Portfolio Manager: Allison Allen

7. NOAA’s Ecological Forecasting: Priority Areas and Geographies of Interest HABS Gulf of Maine Pacific Northwest Lake Erie California Texas/Florida Hypoxia Gulf of Mexico Chesapeake Bay Pathogens Chesapeake Bay Delaware Bay Pacific Northwest Habitat

8. Next Steps for Ecological Forecasting Short-Term: Better define and agree upon the gaps Identify specific needs most critical to supporting forecasts Define a national strategy for cells and toxin detection Prioritize operational forecasting and research observing and modeling needs by region Develop a blended approach of human-based detection methods, autonomous sensors to maximize sustained operation of sentinel sites Long-Term Build on NOAA and IOOS RA partnership to seek resources, fill gaps in models and observations to continue to develop and transition HAB forecasts in critical regions

9. NOAA’s R2X DEPLOY RL9 DEMONSTRATE RLs 6-8 DEVELOP RLs 3-5 RESEARCH RLs 1-2 Research & Development Transition Operations & Applications Tailored to Requirements Broadly relevant to NOAA mission SCOPE OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE PHASE OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

10. Research Transition Acceleration Program (RTAP) Tier 1 examples Mid-Atlantic pathogens models Chesapeake Bay hypoxia forecast Lake Erie 3-D HAB forecast Alaska CLIMate Project Accelerate toward RL8 (“mission-ready”) in 1-3 years FY 17 “Blue Book” p.23 http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/nbo/ 10

11. Criteria for an Operational Forecast Scientifically vetted Have components been published? Are they scientifically acceptable? User vetted Are the vetted forecasts useful? Transferable All capability does not depend on one expert or computer Can meet operational definition SOPs, training materials, skill assessment criteria, strategy for resources

12. Operational Definition Institutional Base-funded, not grant-funded Standard operational procedures User training Annual assessment Reliable No single point of failure Operational on a 5 (or 7) day-week (analysts available every day) Model operators fix problems before the forecasters see them Scheduled Forecasts produced as scheduled (daily, semi-weekly, weekly) Model guidance produced as scheduled before forecasts Standard distribution Forecasts are analysis Models are guidance, interpretations are forecasts This is standard for weather forecasts

13. Discussion Questions Transitioning operational forecasts from NOAA to regional partners Is this a feasible approach? What do you see as the major challenges? Does your RA have the requisite capacity? What are the opportunities, the challenges? How do we create a path forward? The key steps? Relationship between forecast transition and observations: –How do we move forward with filling the gaps in observations and the need to support forecasting events?

14. Let’s Discuss!

15. Development and Transition Timeline The good 1600+ bulletin subscribers 13,571 web hits during event Highly visible product Instrumental in providing warning for 2014 Toledo event Made on-the-fly modifications at direct request of Ohio responders The not-so-good Loss of MERIS led to redesign for MODIS (single point of failure) Field data were initially ad-hoc Did not obtain early corporate NOAA buy-in –no CONOPS until FY15 –No funding champion Challenges in Transition: Lake Erie HAB