1. Method to Assess Climate Change Risks in Buildings
IAIA Conference 2017
Method to Assess Climate Change Risks in Buildings
Assessing climate change and disaster impact on urban area (II) (114b) 13:30 – 15:00
Andrew Murray

2. Presentation format Background Introduction Methodology
Assessment format & design
Assessment process
Scoring methodology
Learning points

3. Background Andy Murray – Sustainability Consultant at Ramboll Environ
Based in Carbon & Energy Team, located in London, UK
Areas of specialisation
New Construction & Planning
Sustainability Appraisals
Risk Assessments
Corporate Reporting
BREEAM Assessor
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4. Background
Ramboll Environ work with several Property Owners, Managers and Developers.
Climate change poses significant risks to existing property
New constructions subject to rigours standards and assessment
Climate risks are considered and controlled from the outset
Building Reg’s
Assessment Methods
Planning Controls & Conditions
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5. Background Property timeframes are multi- decadal
Lack of assessment methods/tools for existing property
Less incentive for existing properties to assess and control future risks
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6. introduction
Number of Clients requested an audit of existing buildings to understand:
What potential risks
Impact of these risks
Level of exposure
How to control future risks
This presentation will describe the process undertaken in creating the assessment, the outputs and lessons learned.

7. introduction
In response Ramboll Environ developed: An undemanding assessment methodology, to quantify the likelihood and impact of potential climate change and sustainability risks; assess current mitigation measures and produce a net risk value for a number of key issues

8. Methodology Created a set of Key Risk Issues through: Output:
Description
No. of sub- issues
Energy Efficiency
Risk of higher fuel costs, energy security issues, associated negative environmental externalities 6
Water Efficiency
Increasing demands on water, changes in precipitation patterns and additional environmental protection legislation may lead to reduced availability (with potential restrictions on use), higher water costs and greater environmental impact from extraction and waste water treatment. 7
GHG Emissions
Associated extraneous impacts from emissions; likely increases in legislative controls, reporting requirements and possibly stricter emission requirements; impact from reputational expectations and damages; greater consideration of GHG emissions when accessing finance and valuation of an asset 5
Building Safety & Materials
Structural integrity of asset, potential for increased maintenance costs, loss of business continuity and income from major disruptions, potential for whole building to be unsuitable for occupation
Transportation
Increasing fuel costs, pollution emission controls and congestion could affect ability of staff and products to get to and from the asset
Contamination
Site and building has potential to cause environmental damage or effect human health, with associated business liabilities and potential risks of legislative and financial implications if site causes negative environmental/human health effects. 4
Natural Hazards
Direct risk of natural hazards impacting on the asset and its operation; risk of increasing difficulty in obtaining finance, greater insurance costs, lower rental income potential, disruption to business continuity.
Climate Change
Unknown consequences of changing climate on asset physical structure, access to resources, impact on business operations. Greater legislative and reporting requirements with financial and legal consequences.
Socio-economic
Assets and organisations operate within the wider social and economic environment, both influencing and being influenced by it. The socio-economic environment can offer potential opportunities and risks. 9
Regulatory
Risk from legal impacts, reputational losses, additional charges, costs and fines. 3
H&S and Well Being
Risks of legislative non-compliance, lower rates of productivity, financial value of an asset and exposure to litigation.
Other
Risk of changing pattern of engagement from internal stakeholders. 1
Methodology
Created a set of Key Risk Issues through:
Literature review existing methodologies
National risk factors
Global and local
Reoccurring themes/issues were noted
Output:
12 key issues identified
Number of sub-issues each

9. Building Safety & Materials Transportation Contamination
Issue
Description
No. of sub- issues
Energy Efficiency
Risk of higher fuel costs, energy security issues, associated negative environmental externalities 6
Water Efficiency
Increasing demands on water, changes in precipitation patterns and additional environmental protection legislation may lead to reduced availability (with potential restrictions on use), higher water costs and greater environmental impact from extraction and waste water treatment. 7
GHG Emissions
Associated extraneous impacts from emissions; likely increases in legislative controls, reporting requirements and possibly stricter emission requirements; impact from reputational expectations and damages; greater consideration of GHG emissions when accessing finance and valuation of an asset 5
Building Safety & Materials
Structural integrity of asset, potential for increased maintenance costs, loss of business continuity and income from major disruptions, potential for whole building to be unsuitable for occupation
Transportation
Increasing fuel costs, pollution emission controls and congestion could affect ability of staff and products to get to and from the asset
Contamination
Site and building has potential to cause environmental damage or effect human health, with associated business liabilities and potential risks of legislative and financial implications if site causes negative environmental/human health effects. 4
Natural Hazards
Direct risk of natural hazards impacting on the asset and its operation; risk of increasing difficulty in obtaining finance, greater insurance costs, lower rental income potential, disruption to business continuity.
Climate Change
Unknown consequences of changing climate on asset physical structure, access to resources, impact on business operations. Greater legislative and reporting requirements with financial and legal consequences.
Socio-economic
Assets and organisations operate within the wider social and economic environment, both influencing and being influenced by it. The socio-economic environment can offer potential opportunities and risks. 9
Regulatory
Risk from legal impacts, reputational losses, additional charges, costs and fines. 3
H&S and Well Being
Risks of legislative non-compliance, lower rates of productivity, financial value of an asset and exposure to litigation.
Other
Risk of changing pattern of engagement from internal stakeholders. 1

10. Assessment Design & Format
Single Excel workbook, “A4” sized, easily printed
Sections:
Introduction text – brief outline of the assessment; site information; audit details, propose and approach.
Results summary – Gross risk, Net risk and normalised risk output for each assessment issue with recommendations (key recommendations highlighted);
Assessment issues overview – description of the 12 Key Risk Issue groups;
Method – description of key terms, assessment instructions, recommended prior reading and guidance;
Individual assessment and scores – specific assessment tab for each of the 12 Key Risk Issues;
Graphs – visual representation summary of the risk assessment scores including Gross and Net risk; and,
Data tab –to store assessment data and other quantifiable metrics for future reference

12. Assessment Design & Format
For each sub-issue there is:
Evidence criteria Description notes Mitigation actions Auditor comments

13. Assessment Process Site specific Sub-issue list created
Information request & review
Site audit
Results collated and reviewed
Recommendations for mitigation
Sharing of results with stakeholders

14. Results collated and reviewed
Assessment Process
Site specific Sub-issue list created
Information request & review
Site audit
Results collated and reviewed
Recommendations for mitigation
Sharing of results with stakeholders

15. Scoring Methodology – per sub-issue
Net Risk – Gross risk modified by Current Control effectiveness

16. Scoring Methodology – per sub-issue
Net Risk – Gross risk modified by Current Control effectiveness
Gross Risk - sum of likelihood score and impact factors:
Likelihood/Exposure: how likely the risk will occur
Scored: 1-5 (unlikely, possible, probable, very likely, certain)
Impact: magnitude of impact from the sub-issue
Scored: 1 to 5 (insignificant, moderate, significant, major, extreme)
Score Likelihood Impact
Unlikely Insignificant
Possible Moderate
Probable Significant
Very likely Major
Certain Extreme

17. Scoring Methodology – per sub-issue
Net Risk – Gross risk modified by Current Control effectiveness
Gross Risk - sum of likelihood score and impact factors:
Likelihood/Exposure: how likely the risk will occur
Scored: 1-5 (unlikely, possible, probable, very likely, certain)
Impact: magnitude of impact from the sub-issue
Scored: 1 to 5 (insignificant, moderate, significant, major, extreme)
Current Control - if there is a control mechanism in place, deemed to reduce the risk.
Scored as Full, Partial, or No control

18. Recommendations for mitigation Sharing of results with stakeholders
Assessment Process
Site specific Sub-issue list created
Information request & review
Site audit
Results collated and reviewed
Recommendations for mitigation
Sharing of results with stakeholders

19. Outputs – Summary Table
Each issue category has:
Gross, Current and Normalised Risk scores
Recommended mitigation measures
Most urgent 10 measures highlighted

20. Outputs - Visual representation
Gross and Current displayed visually
Shows highest risk areas and level of current control

21. Learning points
Although simple and easy to use, the assessor needs to be suitably knowledgeable
1-5 scale and 3 levels of current control maintains simplicity without too great a loss of specificity
Issues of subjectivity between assessors, need for internal checks and controls
Results useful as an initial assessment of overall risk but further due diligence should be undertaken prior to financial decisions

22. Advantages of undertaking assessment
Measure and improve business resilience;
Investment assurance in long term viability;
Improved occupier satisfaction and/or productivity of staff;
Recognition in assessment frameworks - Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark (GRESB), European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA);
Provide competitive advantage;
Lower financing costs, insurance premiums (financial institutions are beginning to offer favourable rates for buildings deemed as lower risk);
Increased retail or lease value;
Reputational advantage;
Stay ahead of new legislation, issues and corporate goals;
Provide a focused approach to risk mitigation;
Track progress of risk reduction.

23. Questions Contact details
Address - Ramboll Environ, Artillery House, Artillery Row, London, SW1P 1RT, UK
Tel -