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Multidimensional Poverty Measurement

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Presentation on theme: "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement"— Presentation transcript:

1 Multidimensional Poverty Measurement
Poverty and Equity GP 2017 Summer Course Maria Ana Lugo Minh Cong Nguyen

2 Outline Why multidimensional poverty? Early applications Steps WB-MPI
Dimensions, indicators and thresholds The aggregation question Weights WB-MPI PANEL (Moritz Meyer ECA, Federica Marzo AFR) STATA EXAMPLES (Minh)

3 Why add non-monetary poverty?
2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Why add non-monetary poverty? (1) Conceptual: Human well-being is intrinsically multidimensional, and income or consumption do not capture fully this multidimensionality 1. Living standards perspective: incomplete coverage through consumption/income because of, for instance, publicly provided services (instrumental and intrinsic) thus prices cannot be used 2. Capabilities: people have different ability to convert resources into capabilities 3. Human Rights: intrinsically multidimensional, no possible trade-off

4 Why add non-monetary poverty? (cont.)
2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Why add non-monetary poverty? (cont.) (2) Empirical: correlation between monetary and non-monetary is not perfect.

5 Why add non-monetary poverty? (cont.)
2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Why add non-monetary poverty? (cont.) (3) Consensual: Increasing interest from governments and international institutions (UNDP, EU, OECD). SGD Goal 1.2. halving poverty “… in all its dimensions …” Plurality of views about well-being 2/3 of countries using or going to

6 A bit of history (of counting approach)
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI A bit of history (of counting approach) Social Inclusion in Europe: beyond elimination of poverty to the focus on the mechanisms that exclude individuals Townsend 1979, Mack and Lansley 1985, …, Nolan and Whelan 2011 Socially perceived necessities, by force not choice Poverty cut-off (dual): number of deprivations to be considered poor. Many combined income (relative) and “material deprivation” Basic Needs Approach in LAC: direct method to measure poverty, intrinsically important, and also associated to income poverty Chile 1975, INDEC-CEPAL 1984 (Argentina): applications to Censuses as UBN maps, extended to many other LAC and MENA countries. Indicators: overcrowding, housing, toilet, school attendance, dependency ratio (economic capacity) Union approach: at least one UBN, but also with at least 2, at least 3, … Integrated approach: income-UBN. See Beccaria, Altimir, Boltvinik

7 Critical steps in multidimensional approach
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Critical steps in multidimensional approach Selection of variables (dimensions, indicators, thresholds) If more than one: 2. Aggregation (or not)  Identification If aggregation 3. Choice of weights

8 Step 1: Selection of dimensions, indicators
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Step 1: Selection of dimensions, indicators Normatively Capabilities (Nussbaum), primary goods (Rawls), basic rights / constitution (Mexico), ancestors’ philosophy (Bolivia – Vivir Bien) Preference based: focus groups (El Salvador / Armenia) Pragmatically As instrument for policy coordination (e.g. Colombia) Empirically Based on subjective well-being data (UN WHR) Statistically, based on available data

9 Step 1. Indicators in country-based MDP in LAC
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Step 1. Indicators in country-based MDP in LAC back Paises: Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Paraguay

10 Step 1. Indicators in Global MDP
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Step 1. Indicators in Global MDP UNDP-MPI EU Social Indicators (selected) Monetary poverty Below 60% of median national equalized income Education Years of schooling Children enrolled Early school-leavers (18-24) Health Child mortality Life expectancy Infant mortality Self-reported unmet need for health care Nutrition BMI for adults and height for age for children Access to services Electricity Water Sanitation Assets Cooking fuel Floor Assets (radio, tel., TV, bike, motorbike, car, fridge) Washing machine, color tv, telephone, car Employment Jobless households Employment of older workers

11 Step 2. The aggregation question
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Step 2. The aggregation question Two polar alternatives and an intermediate position 1. Dashboard approach Present each dimension separately but simultaneously e.g. Atkinson et al (2002), MDGs, WDR 2006, Ravallion (2011) 2. Multidimensional index approach Aggregation into a single index across individuals and across dimensions e.g. HDI, MPI, GNH 3. Middle ground Dashboard + dependency structure e.g. Venn diagrams

12 Step 2. Middle ground 1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI
Alternative forms of representing the dependency structure Based on counting overlaps: Tabulation Venn Diagram Average deprivation for a given k (1, …, D) k=1 union K=D intersection Source: Reprinted from Atkinson, A. B., E. Marlier, F. Monatigne, and A. Reinstadler (2010) `Income poverty and income inequality’, in Income and Living Conditions in Europe, Atkinson and Marlier (eds), Eurostat, page 127. See also Ferreira and Lugo (2013)

13 Step 2. Comparing approaches
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Step 2. Comparing approaches Dashboard Approach MD Measures Overlap Approach No complete conclusion when dimensions disagree # dimensions deprived are not important (joint distribution ignored) Use of best possible data for each dimension No need to choose relative weights Complete ranking Intensity of well-being or deprivations matters All information should come from a single source Need to choose relative weights No complete conclusion when dimensions disagree Intensity of well-being or deprivations matters No need to agree on weights? One source for all dimensions ?

14 Step 2. Global MPI (UNDP) 1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI
Key characteristics of MPI: [1] DUAL CUT-OFF By deprivation (z_d) Number of deprivations to be MD poor (k) = 33% [2] INTENSITY MPI = Headcount * Average deprivation among the MD poor 1 Argentina, 2005 Encuesta Nacional de Nutrición y Salud (ENNys); 2 Brazil, 2013 and 2012 Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD); 3 China, 2012 China Family Panel Studies; 4 Ecuador, 2014 and 2006 Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida (ECV); 5 Jamaica, 2010 Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions (JSLC); 6 Libya, 2007 Pan Arab Population and Family Health Survey (PAPFAM); 7 Mexico, 2012 and 2006 Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutricion (ENSANUT); 8 Morocco, 2011 Pan Arab Population and Family Health Survey (PAPFAM); 9 State of Palestine, 2006/2007 Pan Arab Population and Family Health Survey (PAPFAM); 10 Syrian Arab Republic, 2009 Pan Arab Population and Family Health Survey (PAPFAM), and 11 South Africa, 2012 and 2008 National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS). T ables 6 and 7 of the Human Development Report Statistical Annex indicate for each country if data come from the DHS, MICS or from a national survey. Available for 101 countries (and 61 more than once) Sources: DHS, MICS, and some national equivalent surveys

15 Step 2. MD Measures: Selected examples
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Step 2. MD Measures: Selected examples Bourguignon-Chakravarty (2003) Correlation across dimensions matters (sign depending on parameters) Weighted average of individual deprivations with CES-type function Pure counting approach: the Alkire-Foster (2011) … e.g. MPI Dual cut-off: identification and aggregation clearly distinguished Decomposable (two-way) : Completely linear A “cross-dimensionally” convex approach (Datt, 2016) Every deprivation counts (union approach) Compounding effect of overlapping dimensions

16 Step 2. MD Measures: Selected examples
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Step 2. MD Measures: Selected examples Bourguignon-Chakravarty (2003) Pure counting approach: the Alkire-Foster (2011) … e.g. MPI A “cross-dimensionally” convex approach (Datt, 2016)

17 Step 3. Selecting weights
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Step 3. Selecting weights Weights determine the trade-offs between dimensions. They convey a specific view of how “a good life” should look. Approaches to set weights Data-driven (what ‘is’) Hybrid Normative (what ‘ought to’) Frequency Self-stated Equal or arbitrary Statistical Hedonic Expert opinion Most-favorable Price-based Source: Decancq and Lugo (2013)

18 The Atkinson Commission on Global Poverty
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI The Atkinson Commission on Global Poverty The 24-member commission led by Prof. Anthony Atkinson tasked with providing advice to the World Bank’s Chief Economist on various poverty measurement issues including: What choices should the World Bank make regarding complementary poverty measures to be tracked and made available to policy-makers? The final report was published in October 2016, and contains 21 recommendations, grouped in three parts.

19 Atkinson’s report: recommendation on multidimensionality
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Atkinson’s report: recommendation on multidimensionality Recommendation 11 “The Bank should publish, alongside the global poverty headcount, a portfolio of Complementary Indicators”, including a dashboard of multi-dimensional indicators (small number for prominence, based on explicit set of principles, external consultations) Recommendation 19: Complementary Indicators: a multidimensional poverty indicator based on the counting approach WB response and next steps The recommendation is taken on board POV-DEC working group to decide on dimensions, indicators, and aggregator in consultation with global experts and stakeholders Income/consumption will be one of the indicators to be included

20 Core guiding principles
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI How should we select non-monetary indicators? (in addition to income/consumption) Core guiding principles (1) Complement of monetary poverty: use prices when appropriate and choose other dimensions when lacking natural weights (relative prices) for incorporation into consumption aggregate (2) Relevance: Essential for well-being (3) Parsimony: Small number to give prominence (3 to 5 dimensions) – importance of overlap within unit of observation (4) Data availability: Ideally indicators with global coverage, and taken from same data sources to enable joint distribution Rule of thumb: at least 60% of population coverage in each of the WB’s regions

21 How should we select non-monetary indicators? (cont.)
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI How should we select non-monetary indicators? (cont.) Proposed approach – three parallel tracks The “wide” group of indicators: dimensions and indicators are now (or soon to be) available for a large number of countries The ideal indicators: given selected dimensions, to serve as guide posts (SDGs as driving force) The “intermediate” group of indicators: currently available with limited coverage, can supplement the “wide” group for a smaller number of countries Closer to the ideal than the “wide” group, trading off coverage for more or better indicators The wide approach: after an assessment of what we can deliver by the next PSP report, would the wide approach be worth pursuing (i.e. if we only have two non-monetary dimensions)? The ideal approach: which dimensions should we aspire to include (i.e. should we work towards a security dimension)? The “intermediate” approach: should we only consider indicators available within the same data source, or consider a hybrid that combines data sources that enables joint distribution at an aggregate level (i.e. district or geo-spatial grid)? Aggregation: which aggregation approaches should we adopt, and which summary measures should be presented in the country tables (i.e. an overlap measure, Venn diagram, etc.)?

22 Currently proposed dimensions
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Currently proposed dimensions Wide Monetary poverty Consumption/Income per capita ($1.9 per day) Education Children's enrollment Completed level of education (adults) Health Nutrition Access to services Piped water in dwelling or plot Sanitation Electricity (any) Security

23 Currently proposed dimensions
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Currently proposed dimensions Wide Ideal Monetary poverty Consumption/Income per capita ($1.9 per day) Education Children's enrollment Age appropriate cognitive skills Completed level of education (adults) Health Quality adjusted access to health (preventative and curative) Individual level health outcome measures (e.g. hypertension, diabetes, CV) Nutrition Individual nutrition measures (normed and age-adjusted), e.g. BMI, stunting, anemia Access to services Piped water in dwelling or plot Safely managed drinking water (safe and available) Sanitation Safely managed sanitation service (not shared and safe disposal) Electricity (any) Non-interrupted supply of electricity of sufficient voltage Security incidence of violence at the community level

24 Currently proposed dimensions
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Currently proposed dimensions Wide Intermediate Ideal Monetary poverty Consumption/Income per capita ($1.9 per day) Education Children's enrollment Quality adjusted enrollment Age appropriate cognitive skills Completed level of education (adults) Quality adjusted attainment Health Health access at community level for (a) careseeking for all morbidity, (b) skilled birth attendence Quality adjusted access to health (preventative and curative) Individual level health outcome measures (e.g. hypertension, diabetes, CV) Nutrition Stunting for children Individual nutrition measures (normed and age-adjusted), e.g. BMI, stunting, anemia BMI for adults Access to services Piped water in dwelling or plot Quality adjusted basic drinking water source Safely managed drinking water (safe and available) Sanitation Clean sanitation Safely managed sanitation service (not shared and safe disposal) Electricity (any) Non-interrupted supply of electricity of sufficient voltage Security incidence of violence at the community level

25 Critical steps in multidimensional approach
1. WHY ? 2. EARLY APP 3. STEPS 4. WB-MPI Critical steps in multidimensional approach Selection of variables (dimensions, indicators, thresholds) If more than one: 2. Aggregation (or not)   Identification If aggregation 3. Choice of weights

26 Thanks!

27 WB country work on MDP There are different types of supports that the WB currently provides Accompanying the process, from formulation to data collection: provides training, close technical support, and survey instrument design and data collection (Armenia, ~Bolivia) Working together/alongside with OPHI: financing OPHI’s TA (Senegal); providing technical inputs (Colombia, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Peru), peer- reviewers (Paraguay).  Supporting data collection for multidimensional measurement: data collection to better capture the dimensions that are intended to be included in the measure (OECS, potentially in Costa Rica).

28 Initial proposal for complementary indicators
Global Summary (list of countries): dashboard + M0 (k=1) M(𝛼=1,𝛽=2) overlap/intersection + M0 (k=2) (3-6) Individual Country: dashboard + M0 (k=1) M(𝛼=1,𝛽=2) Venn

29 GMD Incidence of deprivations [as of today]
By Region By Income Groups Region Less than primary completed Less than $1.9/day No electricity EAP 2.1% 4.9% 1.9% ECA 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% LAC 3.7% 5.4% 3.4% MENA 16.3% 2.0% 11.8% SAS 17.9% 19.0% 23.3% SSA 27.0% 46.7% 71.4% Total 10.3% 14.2% 17.8% Income group Less than primary completed Less than $1.9/day No electricity High income 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% Low income 32.9% 49.4% 78.7% Lower middle income 14.8% 19.0% 24.0% Upper middle income 2.3% 3.9% 1.1% Total 10.3% 14.2% 17.8%

30 Education SDG #4: “inclusive and equitable quality education”
Ideal: quality of education, reflected in learning capability. Implementation: short module testing basic math and reading, such as citizen-led assessments (ASER, in India and Pakistan; UWEZO-Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda; Beekungo -Mali). This indicator could be appropriate for children, youth and adults. Intermediate: quality adjusted enrolment levels: adjust enrolment rates by the country’s quality of the education, appropriate for children and youth. Implementation: Unesco Institute for Statistics (UIS) harmonization exercise of international tests (PISA, SACMEQ-PASEC, TIMS, LLECE) Alternatively, use DHS basic literacy test administered to adult women to adjust adults education (Pritchett and Sandefur, 2017).

31 Health SGD #3 to ensure health lives and promote well-being for all at all ages Ideal/intermediate: Two potentially complementary approaches Population access to formal health care: consistent with the instrumental justification. E.g. formal sector utilization rate conditional on health status at the community level Direct individual assessment of specific health dimensions: consistent with capabilities. E.g. anthropometric measures for both children and adults. Others: anemia (blood hemoglobin, most relevant for children, pregnant women and the elderly), hypertension (blood pressure and pulse as well as total and HDL cholesterol, most relevant for prime age and older adults), type II diabetes (HbA1c, relevant for all ages), physical markers of all cause stress (CRP, cortisol, relevant for adults).

32 Water and Sanitation SDG #6 Clean Water and Sanitation. WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Program for W&S Ideal/Intermediate: access, quality, availability (Access Plus framework, WASH) Water: “% of the population using safely managed drinking water sources”, defined as a basic drinking water source located on premises, available when needed, and compliant with fecal and priority chemical standards. Sanitation: “% of the population using safely managed sanitation services” defined as a basic sanitation facility which is not shared, where excreta are safely disposed in situ or transported and treated off-site Implementation: added module added to hh surveys, e.g. Ethiopia, Ecuador.

33 Security SDG #16 Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions:
Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere Ideal: Incidence of violent deaths at the community level (also as a proxy of threat of violence). Both homicide and conflict related deaths. Implementation: added module (1/2 Qs) “do you know someone…” Intermediate: combining other sources at low level of disaggregation ACLED: georeferenced incidence of armed conflict from political violence (Africa, South Asia, Mena, 50 countries) Geneva: small arms survey (homicides) + OSLO data (conflict)

34 Global MPI: Indicators and thresholds
Other applications Indicator Threshold Health • Nutrition: BMI for adults and height-for-age under 5 At least one is malnourished: BMI for adults (women 15–49) and height-for-age z score for children under age 5 (WHO standards) • Child mortality: Child death in last 5 year One or more children died within the five years prior to the survey. Education • School attainment: Years completed No one has completed at least six years of schooling. • School attendance Child-aged attendance At least one school-age child (up to grade 8) is not attending school. Standard of living • Electricity: Access to electricity Not having access to electricity. • Drinking water: Source in dwelling and distance Not having access to clean drinking water or if the source of clean drinking water is located more than 30 minutes away by walking. • Sanitation: Toilet Not having access to improved sanitation or if improved, it is shared. • Cooking fuel: Cooking fuel material Using ‘dirty’ cooking fuel (dung, wood or charcoal). • Floor: Floor material Having a home with a dirt, sand or dung floor. • Assets: radio, TV, telephone; bike, motorbike, car, truck, animal cart, motorboat; refrigerator, arable land, livestock Not having at least one asset related to access to information (radio, TV, telephone) and not having at least one asset related to mobility (bike, motorbike, car, truck, animal cart, motorboat) or at least one asset related to livelihood (refrigerator, arable land, livestock).

35 MPI – Alkire-Foster: main concepts
Original matrix Censored matrix k=2 dimensions y e h w H of MD poor Average deprivation 1 2 2/4 = .5 3 N ¾ = .75 H = 2 / N A = 1.25 / N MPI = H x A y e h w 1 2 3 N individuals

36 Global MPI: Indicators and thresholds
Other applications Indicator Threshold Health • Nutrition: BMI for adults and height-for-age under 5 At least one is malnourished: BMI for adults (women 15–49) and height-for-age z score for children under age 5 (WHO standards) • Child mortality: Child death in last 5 year One or more children died within the five years prior to the survey. Education • School attainment: Years completed No one has completed at least six years of schooling. • School attendance Child-aged attendance At least one school-age child (up to grade 8) is not attending school. Standard of living • Electricity: Access to electricity Not having access to electricity. • Drinking water: Source in dwelling and distance Not having access to clean drinking water or if the source of clean drinking water is located more than 30 minutes away by walking. • Sanitation: Toilet Not having access to improved sanitation or if improved, it is shared. • Cooking fuel: Cooking fuel material Using ‘dirty’ cooking fuel (dung, wood or charcoal). • Floor: Floor material Having a home with a dirt, sand or dung floor. • Assets: radio, TV, telephone; bike, motorbike, car, truck, animal cart, motorboat; refrigerator, arable land, livestock Not having at least one asset related to access to information (radio, TV, telephone) and not having at least one asset related to mobility (bike, motorbike, car, truck, animal cart, motorboat) or at least one asset related to livelihood (refrigerator, arable land, livestock).

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