1. Sales Effect Measurement
Nielsen Catalina Solutions
Sales Effect Measurement
9/12/16

2. The Largest, Most Representative CPG
90MM+ HHs of shopper data
13 Retailers with 26 Banners - 18,000 Stores
Daily purchase logs (from the stores)
UPC level information (over 1.5 million UPCs)
2 year* history of CPG purchases
All retailer data is co-mingled
Shopper Data is calibrated w/ Nielsen Homescan
The Largest, Most Representative CPG
Dataset in the Nation
HBA, Adult Bev, OTC, Homecare, Pet and Baby
All of your retailer data must be commingled together OR you:
Will spend money on media for a household that has already bought
Will miss sales that were incurred by the household
Can’t effectively optimize In-Flight creative, placement, etc.
COMMITMENT TO PRIVACY All data is commingled (mixed together at the household level).
No retailer is ever isolated. No PII (Personally Identifiable Information) is ever given by the retailer to NCS directly
* You Need 2+ Years of Historical Data to Account for Seasonal, Economical, Health Related, or Broader Life Changes/Major Events

3. What kind of return can I expect for my CPG category?
Baby $4.86
Pet $4.12
OTC $3.62
Merch $3.54
Beverage $3.29
Food $3.23
HBA $3.09
CPG Average
$3.39
Source: Nielsen Catalina Solutions Norms Database,
Digital studies through Q2 2015

4. Measurement Capabilities
Video vs. Display
Compare impact of creative messaging
Advertisement Placement
Advertisement Size
Deeper product breaks down to UPC level
Instant consumables
Impact of promotions
Retailer co-op/circular measurement (requires retailer approval)
Granular Insight
100K HHs –
Homescan Panel (HS)
with All Outlet Adjustment
Frequent Shopper
Data (FSD) 90+ Million HHs

5. Measurement Offerings
Sales Effect: quantifies the offline sales impact of online advertising
Digital
Video
Mobile
Retailer (i.e. Ahold, Safeway, etc)
Cross-platform
Sales Effect Snapshot: provides the opportunity to gain valuable insights on campaigns with smaller media spend (<$200K)
Campaign Starts
Month
Campaign Ends
Purchase History: Test and Control Matching Period (52 weeks)
Analysis Period

6. Snapshot: Product Overview
Sales Effect Snapshot is
Available today in a standard output
Faster turnaround via more automation
Feasible at lower reach requirements
One brand/one volume
Single Time period/Total Exposed Households
Sales Effect Snapshot is not
A replacement for current Sales Effect
Less statistical rigor thus lower confidence
Less insight due to fewer measures
Customizable beyond basic parameters

7. Measurement Options Sales Effect - Full Read Sales Effect - Snapshot
In-store sales lift
Test vs. Control
Read of one promoted brand
Metrics: sales lift, penetration, and purchase frequency
Demographics profile
ROAS
Read of total halo brand and one promoted brand
Decomposition, up to 6 brands
Metrics: sales lift, buying rate, penetration, frequency, and historical norm comparison, share shift

8. Feasibility determined by…C D + +
Product Penetration
Purchase Cycle
Campaign Duration
Annual FSD Brand Pen
FSD Min. Reach - UVs 2%
12MM 5%
4.5MM
10%
2.2MM
15%
1.4MM
20%
1MM
Project-specific basis
24 hours (typically)
Estimated ‘ballpark’ guidelines
Assuming a 12 week digital campaign and a product with a day purchase cycle:

9. SAMPLE REPORT Digital Campaign Sales Effect Measurement
Offline Sales Impact Analysis
Month X, XXXX – Month X, XXXX

10. Authorized Recipients and 3rd Party Access
This presentation contains confidential information and may only be shared with the following Authorized Recipients.
Direct 3rd party interactions required to fulfill this work product are limited to the following Approved Uses/Restrictions.
The Project Sponsor is solely responsible for determining Authorized Recipients and Approved Uses/Restrictions for 3rd parties.
Project Sponsor
Company
Project Name
Date
Authorized Recipients
Company
Date
Third Party
Approved Uses
Restrictions

11. Campaign Overview Objective Target Audience Flight Campaign Delivery
Grow Sales
Target Audience
Heavy/Medium category buyers who are also light brand buyers
Flight
Month X, XXXX – Month X, XXXX (X weeks)
Campaign Delivery
XXMM impressions delivered; X.XMM households reached
Success Metric: % Lift
Brand A Dollar: 9%,
Brand B Dollar: 4%
Success Metric: Short-Term Sales Impact
Brand A Dollar: $Y.YMM,
Brand B Dollar: $Y.YMM

12. Campaign Creative Units

13. Measurement Insights
Observations
Recommendations
XXX

14. Click to edit Master subtitle style
Methodology

15. Measurement Methodology
Step 1
Isolate strategic target in Direct Match database
Based on sales 52 weeks before campaign begins
All-outlet representative
Step 2
Test Design and Treatment Execution
A marketing stimulus Magazine Ad, Digital Ad, etc. is applied to a group of consumers
Step 3
Identification of Exposed and Unexposed Households and One-to-One match
Step 4
Measure & Interpret Sales Impact by focusing on purchasing patterns
Exposed
Test Households
Partner
XXMM
+11% .
MATCHED AUDIENCE
X.XMM
Unexposed Control Households
Unexposed
(Control)
Exposed (Test)
NIELSEN
CATALINA
SOLUTIONS
60MM
*For illustrative purposes only 15

16. The HH Match is based on 52 weeks before the campaign begins.
Purchase History: Matching Period (52 weeks)
Analysis Period
Campaign Start
Campaign
End
*For illustrative purposes only

17. Matched Household Pair
Matched on Similar:
Brand and Category Penetration 1
Total Pre Period Brand Dollars/Volume/Units 2
Total Pre Period Category Dollars/Volume/Units 3
Trips by Retailer 4
Household Demographics 5
Geographic Location 6
Lapsed Time since brand purchase 7

18. Sales Impact Calculation
PENETRATION
How many Brand Buying HHs?
PURCHASE AMOUNT
How much of the products did
HHs buy per occasion during the test period? X
PURCHASE FREQUENCY
How often did HHs buy Brand products during the test period? X
BUYING RATE
How much are they buying?
TOTAL SALES =
HH = Households

19. Click to edit Master subtitle style
Results

20. Sales Impact – Dollar Purchases Dates
Households that were in the exposed group purchased significantly more than those that were not exposed.
Point Difference:
+$0.03
+$0.09
Percent Difference:
+9%
+4%
Significance level:
97%
98%
(Average Dollar purchase per panel = Total Dollars divided by # households per panel (includes non-buyers))

21. Contribution of Sub-Brands to Incremental Brand B
Though Brand A only contributed 17% of Brand B’s total volume in the pre-period, it accounted for 33% of the incremental impact.
Pre-period Share
Brand A
17%
Remaining
83%

22. Sales Impact – Penetration Dates
Exposure to the campaign drove more buyers to Brand A.
Point Difference:
+0.2
+0.1
Percent Difference:
+2% 0%
Significance level:
70%
53%
(Percent of households buying the product)

23. Sales Impact – Penetration New^ Buyers Dates
Of the incremental penetration gained for Brand A in the exposed group, the entirety was due to previous buyers.
0.2 Incremental Penetration
^ "New"– did not buy in the previous 52 weeks
(Percent of households buying the product)

24. Sales Impact – Dollar Buying Rate Dates
Exposed households that bought Brand A and B products purchased more than buyers in the unexposed group.
Point Difference:
+$0.30
+$0.25
Percent Difference:
+7%
+4%
Significance level:
99%
99%
(Average Dollar purchases among buying households)

25. Sales Impact – Purchase Frequency Dates
Buyers in the exposed group purchased Brand A more frequently than those unexposed.
Point Difference:
+0.03
0.00
Percent Difference:
+2% 0%
Significance level:
97%
54%
(Average number of product purchase occasions among buying households)

26. Sales Impact – Dollar Purchase Amount Dates
Exposed buyers purchased more Brand A and B products on each purchase occasion than unexposed buyers.
Point Difference:
+$0.19
+$0.16
Percent Difference:
+5%
+4%
Significance level:
99%
99%
(Average Dollar per purchase occasion among buying households)

27. Difference in Percent Change within Category Dollar Shares
Exposed consumers were making Brand A and B products a larger part of their category purchase mix when compared to those not exposed at the expense of Competitors A, C and D.
Analysis period vs. Match period
(Dec 14-Jan 15 vs. Dec 13-Nov 14)
Exposed -Unexposed
difference in share

28. Brand A “Short-Term” Incremental Dollar Sales
Dates
Percent of Panel Reached
Total Partner Households
Estimated Campaign Reach
Per Household Incremental $
Total Incremental Sales from campaign
Total Media Spend X%
X Y,YYY,YYY
How many were exposed
Z,ZZZ,ZZZ hhlds
$0.032
$YYY,YYY X
Times how much each was worth (incremental) II
Equals total incremental sales
$X,XXX,XXX ÷
Incremental $ per $1 spent (Payback)
$Z.ZZ
2Per Exposed Household Incremental $ = Total incremental $ ÷ Total Exposed Households (reflects all-outlet adjustment)

29. Brand B “Short-Term” Incremental Dollar Sales
Dates
Percent of Panel Reached
Total Partner Households
Estimated Campaign Reach
Per Household Incremental $
Total Incremental Sales from campaign
Total Media Spend X%
X Y,YYY,YYY
How many were exposed
Z,ZZZ,ZZZ hhlds
$0.092
$YYY,YYY X
Times how much each was worth (incremental) II
Equals total incremental sales
$X,XXX,XXX ÷
Incremental $ per $1 spent (Payback)
$Z.ZZ
2Per Exposed Household Incremental $ = Total incremental $ ÷ Total Exposed Households (reflects all-outlet adjustment)

30. Click to edit Master subtitle style
Norms

31. Sales Effect Campaign Comparison - Total 365+ Programs
The campaign’s impressions served, household reach, absolute short term dollar sales impact, and return per 1000 impressions were below average compared to previous NCS Sales Effect campaigns.
776MM
51.2MM
$34.1MM
$243.63
Average
93MM
average
7.7MM
average
$1.5MM
average
$22.00
average
XMM Brand A
X.XMM Brand A
$X.XX Brand A
$X.XMM Brand A
3MM
0.2MM
$0.1MM
$1.47
$ per 1000 Impressions
$ Sales Impact
HH Reach
Imps

32. Click to edit Master subtitle style
Appendix

33. Demographic Profile Brand A
Index to total Panel
Exposed Buyers
Total Exposed Households

34. Demographic Profile Brand B
Index to total Panel
Exposed Buyers
Total Exposed Households

35. Analysis Details XXX,XXX Total Exposed HHs XX,XXX Total Analysis HHs
X,XXX Brand A Buyers
X,XXX Brand B Buyers
Data Source: Frequent Shopper

36. Brand A Dollar Trend
Campaign Starts
Campaign Ends

37. Brand B Dollar Trend
Campaign Starts
Campaign Ends

38. Category Dollar Trend
Campaign Starts
Campaign Ends

39. Sales Impact Methodology
NCS Measurement Methodology Summary
Sales Impact Methodology
To measure the effectiveness of the campaign, the household purchases of those exposed to the campaign were compared to the purchases of those who were not.
The ‘exposed’ group was matched to an ‘unexposed’ group that was similar in demographics and had made similar category and brand mix purchases in the 12 months prior to the campaign.
The matched group not only needed to have similar purchases in the preceding 12 months overall, it also needed to match on a monthly basis to ensure that households were at a similar stage in the category buying cycle.
Having selected like households, the remaining differences between the exposed and unexposed groups should be the result of whether or not the group was exposed to the campaign.
Compare the two groups through an Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA controls for any other extraneous factors) to isolate differences in product purchasing during and after the execution of the advertising campaign on 5 key metrics (sales, penetration, buying rate, occasions and purchase amount).
If shopper card data is used, we also adjust for all outlet sales, using Homescan data.
Apply the incremental sales per household to the overall campaign reach to determine the short term sales impact.