1. EU-MED Agpol Annual Meeting 15-16 Mars Paris
TUNISIAN OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORT POTENTIAL
Expert survey
Dr. Boubaker KARRAY
Paris 15 mars 2007

2. Plan Evolution of the olive oil sector in Tunisia during (1991-2005)
European olive oil imports coming from the third countries: evolution and policy reforms (CMO 2004)
Olive oil production and export potential to EU market (2010 and 2015)
* Scenarios (partial and total liberalization)
* Experts panel
* Results
Conclusion

3. Dynamics of Tunisian Olive oil sector since 1991
Total olive tree area : 1667 ha (2nd position after Spain)
Olive Tree number: 64 millions (7th position after Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Morocco and Syria)
Production (Thousand tons)
151
184
142
+/-
% of world Production
7,3
6,8
4,4 -
Export (Thousand tons)
136,7
112,5 93
% of world Export
19,3
12,5
7,8
Export/Product (%) 87 61
65,5
Export to EU (Thousand tons)
117 97 83
% of Total export 86 89 +
% of Total EU import 25 15 10
% of Extra EU import 91 72 60
Share in EU market
Share in USA market
17,2
1.8
12,1 1
8,8
2.6

5. EU olive oil import ( )

6. EU olive oil import coming from third countries
( )

7. EU olive oil import coming from member countries
( )

8. Modification of exchange regime with the third countries
EU Policy Reforms
in the olive oil sector
Modification of exchange
regime with the
third countries
Exchange regime with
the third countries
Association
Agreement 1995
Common Organization Market
Of olive oil and table olives
2004 (CMO)
WTO agricultural agreement 1995
Olive oil international
Agreement 2005 (IOOC)
PD PVD
Fixed customs duties % (36%) (24%)
Internal support % %
Exportations subsidy
Values % %
Quantities % %

9. EU Exchange regime with
the third countries
Preferential tariff
And Quota
tons
Free from customs duties
Normal regime
MFN tariffs
Extra virgin olive oil (1245 E/t)
Lamp olive oil(1226E/t)
Refined olive oil(1346E/t)
Inward- processing
This regime allows the European industrialists to import olive oil from the third countries, free from customs duties, but under the condition of exporting, outside the EU, an equivalent quantity

10. Preferential Tariffs granted to Tunisia: case of
Lamp olive oil
Adh. Greece
Adh.
Spain +Portugal
Quota MT
GATT
Quota
56 MT
Quota
46 MT

11. Quota granted to other third countries
Code NC
Quota (ton)
Date of application
Lebanon
150910
1000
2003
Palestine
2000
2005
Tunisia
(56700) 57167
2004
Algeria
1509
1510
Morocco
151000
3500
Turkey
In progress
Syria
Jordan
2000 (2006)
12000 (2010)

12. Equivalent tariffs 1995 (Euros/T) Source: European commission
MFN tariffs (Normal regime)
Olive oil
Equivalent tariffs 1995 (Euros/T)
MFN tariffs
2000 (Euros/T)
Alert price
(Euros/T)
Virgin lamp
1532
1226
1361
Extra Virgin
1556
1245
1682
Refined
1346
1101
Source: European commission

13. Inward- processing regime Source: European commission
During the period , thousand tons were imported from the third countries in inward-processing arrangements (65% of total import from these countries).
Source: European commission

14. Storage price (Euros/ton) Source: EC Regulation n°865/2004
CMO 2004 (regulation 865/2004)
Article 11
* If the market price of olive oil in the community exceeds the prices listed in the table, within a period of at least three months, and in order to assure an appropriate supply in olive oil to the common market through imports from non-member countries, it may be decided:
Storage price (Euros/ton)
Common market price
(Euros/ton)
Extra virgin
1779
(1779*1.6) =
Virgin
1710
(1710*1.6) = 2736
Lamp
1524
(1524*1.6) =
Source: EC Regulation n°865/2004

15. 1. To suspend totally or partially the application of MFN tariffs to olive oil, and establish the detailed arrangements for such suspension
2. To open up a quota for olive oil importation, to which apply common reduced MFN tariffs, and define modes of management of this quota.
Article 13
* For the proper functioning of the common organization of olive oil and table olives markets, it could be decided
3. To exclude totally or partially the recourse to the inward-processing arrangements

16. 3. MFN tariff: normal regime Extra virgin Lamp Refined 1 + 2 + 3
Scenarios
Scenario 1: PARTIAL LIBERALIZATION
1. Quota
86 tons
2. Inward-processing
MAINTAINED
3. MFN tariff: normal regime
Reduction
Extra virgin
1245 E/t – 20%
Lamp
1226 E/t – 20%
Refined
1346 E/t – 20%
Scenario 2: TOTAL LIBERALIZATION

17. Experts panel for the 1st and 2sd rounds of the
DELPHI study
1st round
2sd round
consulted experts
returned enquiry %
Transformation 1
100
Administration (Technical service) 7 6
85,71
Research 4 3 75
Export 2
66,67
Transformation + Export 5 60 50
Production + Transformation + Export
Certification body
Total 23 18
78,3 24 19
79,2

18. Results

19. OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION POTENTIAL
2010
2015
Olive oil production
142
190
250
Increasing plantations yields through the application of good agricultural practices 1
An integrated olive growing strategy strongly based on scientific arguments, clear objectives, and mobilizing adequate human and material means 2
Extending areas of irrigated oil olives 3
Reinforcing financial availabilities for the benefit of the sector, and granting direct aid to producers 4
Restructuring old plantations through uprooting and replanting, while increasing densities 5
Extending areas of oil olives in dry conditions while increasing densities 6
Promoting hyper-intensive plantations 7
Encouraging the selection of Tunisian varieties in intensive plantations 8

20. OLIVE OIL EXPORT POTENTIAL 83.5 186 224 1.Quota 56.7
01-05
2010
2015
Scenario 1: PARTIAL LIBERALIZATION
83.5
186
224
1.Quota
With increasing J, F and M quantities
Without increasing J, F and M quantities
56.7 85 83 84
2.Inward-processing
If suspended
0 Euros
46.8
100 50
130 65
3.MFN tariff: normal regime 12 18
Scenario 2: TOTAL LIBERALIZATION
153
206

21. Syntheses Olive oil production 142 190 250 Olive oil export 140 37 237
2010
2015
Olive oil production
142
190
250
Olive oil export
Scenario 1: PARTIAL LIBERALIZATION
83.5
186
224
Scenario 2: TOTAL LIBERALIZATION
153
206
Total EU import coming from third countries (average)
Min
Max
140 37
237 -

22. Conclusions
* The effects of the total liberalization of exchanges are inferior to those of partial liberalization, as far as the increase of the Tunisian exportations in olive oil to the European market is concerned.
* Total liberalization will bring about a more important competition between third countries producers and exporters of olive oil (Tunisia, Syria, Turkey, Jordan, Algeria, Lebanon and Palestine)

23. Research perspectives
We should reproduce the same study for the author third countries (FP 7)
(Syria, Morocco, Turkey, Jordan, Algeria, the Lebanon, and Palestine)

24. Thank You for your attention