1. Member Executive Committee – ICC Banking Commission
Impact of Global Trade Trends On
Risk Management for International Operations
22 May 2013
Vin O’Brien
Member Executive Committee – ICC Banking Commission

2. Chair, Market Intelligence Group
ICC Global Survey 2013
ICC Market Intelligence Group
Vin O’Brien
Chair, Market Intelligence Group

4. ICC Global Trade Finance Survey 2013
Partners
ICC Global Trade Finance Survey 2013
‘Market Intelligence Group’
Partnership Relationship

5. Trends in International Trade and Finance
Pascal Lamy, WTO Director General,
November “W e do not know the impact of the financial crisis on trade and trade finance ”
Pascal Lamy, WTO Director General,
April “ICC Global Survey contributes to help leaders make informed decisions on World Trade Finance”

6. - 260 Banks from 102 Countries 56%
2013 Global Survey - Banks & Countries
- 260 Banks
from 102 Countries
56%

7. The Story Starts September 2008

8. 3% 2012 Trade Growth Uneven and harder to predict but Asia
– South East Asia and South South comparatively constant 3%

9. South South Trade is expected to accelerate,
South South comparatively constant and
momentum to be maintained !
South South Trade is expected to accelerate,
- reaching 50 percent of world trade by 2021,
percent by 2031.

10. Exports are growing pretty much everywhere but
equilibrium balance has changed!

11. The South South dynamic is accelerating !

12. Emerging Asia -
Exports
Imports

13. Emerging Asia - Primary Market Focus for Trade Finance
30%

14. Trade Finance Activity Up
68%

15. Confirmations – up!
67%

16. Trade Pricing - CONSTANT OR DOWN !

17. COURT INJUNCTIONS - DOWN !
69%

18. CLAIMS - GUARANTEES AND STANDBYS !
52%

19. ALLEGATIONS OF FRAUD - DOWN!
65%

20. 93% SPURIOUS DISCREPANCIES IN DOCUMENT - PROBLEMATIC !
93% INCREASE OR SAME PROBLEM
93%

21. TIGHTENING OF TRADE CREDIT GUIDELINES
69% - 82%

22. KYC - impact on trade finance business !
66%

23. Compliance challenges
51% reported that Sanctions Compliance restricted trade finance operations in 2012
to a greater extent than in previous years.
57% or respondents reported that in their view Basel III will impact negatively or very negatively on their trade finance business
Consequences identified in order of priority were
increased fees charged to customers,
reduced international trade activity and
banks withdrawing from the trade finance market.

24. 57% Trade Credit Losses lower or much
lower than conventional lending !
57%

25. SWIFT TRADE MESSAGING DOWN 2.25%

26. MT 700 – ISSUANCE SLGIHTLY UP

27. 2012 – Asia Pacific 76% of Export Trade World Traffic

28. 2012 – ISSUE LC Asia up – Europe down – US flat!

29. the countries with the highest growth in 2012 compared to 2011 were:
Bangladesh: 42%
Bahrain: 22%
Qatar: 22%
Russia: 20%
Venezuela: 16%
Nepal: 13%
Ethiopia: 11%
The countries with the highest decrease in 2012 compared to 2011 were:
-Syria: -40%
Italy: -19%
Netherlands: -15%
Spain: -15%
Germany: -12%
Portugal: - 12
Nigeria: -12%
Lebanon: -11%

30. 83%

31. 2012 – Multilateral Development Bank
- USD 50 BN Trade Support

32. The Typical Trade Facilitation Deal
How the TFP programme works!
Goods
Exporter
International
Bank
(Confirming)
BANK IRE DUB
Payment
Importer
Confirm
L/C
Documents
Request
L/C Issuance
Local
(Issuing)
L/C in favor of exporter
IMPORTER
EXPORTER
STANDBY - UCP 600
EBRD
STANDBY
AAA 32

33. 2012 – 1.4 % increase to USD 17 Trillion
Berne Union members history 2012

34. Member Executive Committee – ICC Banking Commission
Thank you for your most…… valuable time
………..and hospitality!
Impact of Global Trade Trends On
Risk Management for International Operations
22 May 2013
Vin O’Brien
Member Executive Committee – ICC Banking Commission