1.  Practical Predictabilities of Ozone: Sensitivity to Emissions Inventory and Planetary Boundary Layer

2. Reference Simulation Settings
Shortwave Radiation- Dudhia
Longwave Radiation- RRTM
Boundary Layer- YSU
Microphysics- WSM6
Cumulus-Grell-Devenyi
Boundary/Initial Conditions- GFS
Chemistry-RACM
Biogenic Emissions-MEGAN
Anthropogenic Emissions-NEI-11
Photolysis-Madronich

3. Boundary Layer predictabilities MYJ-PBL Scheme GFS initial conditions
Predictability group
Reference
Boundary Layer predictabilities
MYJ-PBL Scheme
GFS initial conditions
NEI-11 Emissions
YSU-PBL Scheme
ACM2-PBL scheme
Emissions inventory Predictabilities
NEI-05 Emissions
NEI-Update (NEI-U)
Initial Conditions Predictabilities
(To be completed)
ERA-Interim
GFS initial Conditions

4. Updated Emissions Inventory
Original emissions inventory- NEI-11
All pollutants are the same, with the exception of NOx
Designed to replicate the NOx emissions from June 2014
Other emissions (such as VOCs were held the same as the NEI-11)
Point emissions were updated by the use of Clean Air Market Data supplied by the Environmental Protection Agency.
Area emissions were updated by statewide ratios provided by NOAA.

5. Updated Emissions Inventory: Area Emissions

6. Updated Emissions Inventory: Area Emissions

7. Updated Emissions Inventory: Point Emissions

8. Updated Emissions Inventory: Point Emissions

9. Standard Deviation of Hourly O3 Emissions Predictabilities
25th Percentile
75th Percentile
Median
Minimum
Maximum

10. Standard Deviation of Hourly O3 PBL Predictabilities
25th Percentile
75th Percentile
Median
Minimum
Maximum

11. Emissions and hourly O3 Sensitivity from PBL
Maximum Hourly sensitivity from PBL predictability
NEI-11 Emissions Inventory at 18 UTC

12. Sensitivity of Hourly o3 predictabilities
It is clear from the hourly o3 sensitivity analysis that hourly O3 is more sensitive to PBL scheme

13. Sensitivity of peak 8-hour o3 predictabilities
However, the sensitivity of the peak 8-hour O3 is unclear. Why?
Could the spikes of hourly O3 from PBL predictabilities be occurring at night?
Could the smoothing effect of the 8-hour average dilute sensitivity?

14. Comparison of average Peak 8-Hour sensitivities

15. Hour of Maximum Hourly O3 sensitivity
PBL Predictabilities
Emissions Predictabilities

16. Sensitivity of the Vertical Distribution of O3
Sensitivity to Emissions inventory
Sensitivity to PBL scheme

17. Sensitivity of the Vertical Distribution of O3
Sensitivity to Emissions inventory
Sensitivity to PBL scheme

18. Sensitivity of the Vertical Distribution of O3
Sensitivity to Emissions inventory
Sensitivity to PBL scheme

19. Summary:
A new emissions inventory, depicting June 2014 was created and implemented.
Area NOx emissions, the category highest impacted by the change, was altered by factors supplied by NOAA.
Point source NOx emissions were altered by the implementation of Clean Air Market data.
Hourly O3 sensitivity to the PBL scheme is larger than the hourly O3 sensitivity to emissions inventory.
Hourly O3 sensitivity of both emissions inventories and PBL scheme is increased by the emission rate of NOx.
For the peak 8 hour O3, the sensitivity due to emissions inventory and PBL scheme is relatively similar.