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The First 90 days of the Trump Administration: Policies, Politics and What's Ahead
Frank Donatelli Executive Vice President Director, Federal Public Affairs Gov. Jim Hodges Senior Advisor Director, South Carolina Government Relations
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2017- A Full Plate, and They Won’t Be Sharing Dessert
GOP Congressional Agenda Overhauling the Tax Code Healthcare Reform Reversing Obama-era Regulations Trump Nominations Supreme Court Trump Administration Agenda Overhauling the Tax Code Infrastructure Reform Immigration Reform Healthcare Reform Renegotiating Trade Deals
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Healthcare Reform
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Obamacare Repeal & Replace: A Bitter Pill to Swallow
GOP control of Executive Branch and Congress means they are poised to act on its promise to repeal the ACA Senate budget resolution passed in Jan. 2017 Congressional Republicans have signaled the possibility of a “repeal and transition” strategy Uncertainty & instability of markets with repeal The House Freedom Caucus/Tea Party Senators Leaked House GOP Policy Brief/Discussion Draft Mixture of policies from Ryan’s House GOP Blueprint & HHS Secretary Price’s repeal bills Senate Plans Timeline: Speaker Ryan says repeal to happen before end of 2017
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Obamacare Repeal & Replace: A Bitter Pill to Swallow
Tom Price confirmed as HHS Secretary on Feb. 10 on party line vote (52-47) Seema Verma, Trump’s choice to lead CMS, was voted out of Committee on March 1 President Trump and HHS Secretary Price developing their own ACA repeal/ replace plan Expected Mid-March Timeline: Puts full-repeal deadline at 2018 “Insurance for everybody”? Purchase coverage through the use of tax credits and expanded Health Savings Accounts Trump Campaign Healthcare Platforms Similar to Ryan’s GOP Blueprint Day One Executive Order to Minimize the Economic Burden of ACA Executive Order to Stabilize Insurance Market
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Overhauling the Tax Code
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Tax Reform- Back to the Future of 1986
Like 1986, Tax Reform Fundamentals Are in Place Separate Reconciliation Instructions for Health Care and Tax Reform House and Senate have divergent approaches House GOP Tax Reform Blueprint – Highlights Move the U.S. towards a territorial tax system Lower corporate and individual tax rates Establish a destination-based cash flow tax system – the proposed border adjustment tax (“BAT”) is the linchpin Senate plans to release its own tax reform framework – this could look quite different from the House plan President has his own ideas
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Tax Reform- Back to the Future of 1986
House GOP Blueprint – Pro- Growth Approach Calls for a significant reduction of the corporate tax rate: 35 percent 20 percent Provides full expensing and eliminate the interest expense deduction Eliminates a host of deductions, credits, and exemptions to help pay for the rate reduction Moves the U.S. to a territorial system with border adjustability Senate Tax Reform Models Portman-Schumer International Framework Lowers the corporate tax rate Sets limitations on interest expensing Includes repatriation No border adjustment, but provisions to limit companies’ ability to move profits offshore Hatch Integration Plan Eliminates the corporate tax rate Chairman Hatch appears to have backed off pushing this plan
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Tax Reform- Back to the Future of 1986
Steve Mnuchin confirmed (53 to 47) as Secretary of the Treasury on Feb. 13 What to Expect from a Trump Tax Plan Calls for a simpler, fairer, and flatter tax code A shift to a territorial tax system that will help U.S. firms to be globally competitive once again A reduction in the individual tax rate so that American workers can keep more of what they earn A reduction in the business tax rate to help stem the tide of corporate inversions a tax cut package for the middle class that may include a deduction for child care expenses, a federal education tax credit, and an increase to the standard deduction
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Renegotiating Trade Deals
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Renegotiating Trade Deals- The Elephant in the Room
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) On Day 1, President Trump withdrew the U.S. from TPP, fulfilling his campaign promise North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) President Trump has made it clear he wants to renegotiate NAFTA – specifics are not known More bilateral trade agreements, as opposed to regional agreements (i.e. TPP), with this Administration Trump created the White House National Trade Council Wilbur Ross confirmed with bipartisan support (72-27) as Secretary of Commerce on Feb. 27 Trump’s USTR Candidate Robert Lighthizer has yet to have a hearing scheduled.. Majority GOP support for free trade platform contradicts Trump’s protectionist trade agenda NAFTA originally passed with the support of 66 percent of Republicans in the House and 80 percent of Republicans in the Senate
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Infrastructure Reform
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Infrastructure Reform: Building Bridges to Nowhere?
President Trump campaigned for a $1 trillion infrastructure plan Public private partnerships, direct federal funding, revenue neutral tax credits for investment Bridges, pipelines, highways, powerlines, ports, dams, etc. Two core principles: Buy American, and Hire American Jan. 24 executive orders to expedite environmental review and approval of high-priority infrastructure projects and to accelerate the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipeline projects Trump Transition Priority Project List to NGA- 50 infrastructure projects nationwide, totaling at least $137.5 billion Bipartisan support for confirmation of Elaine Chao as Transportation Secretary on Jan. 31 Strong GOP opposition to direct federal funding bill Senate Democrats introduced a detailed $1 trillion plan in January Highway Trust Fund heading toward a major fiscal cliff in 2021 2018 Priority or part of Tax Reform?
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Immigration Reform
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Immigration Reform: The World’s Most Exclusive Party
No real movement in Congress Perdue-Cotton Immigration bill Trump has made it clear that immigration and protecting the U.S. borders will be a top issue for the Administration. 3 Current Executive Orders 1 Pending Executive Order to Modify Travel Ban (Suspended by the Courts) With more immigration executive orders expected on other immigration related topics, such as H1-B visas, it is evident that Trump plans to use his executive powers to help drive his immigration agenda. Trump’s Joint Address to Congress Laid out Vision for Immigration Called for Rs and Ds to Work Together Merit-based System Optimistic that immigration reform is possible, with theme of America First
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