1. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
European Livestock and Meat Trades Union
UECBV
Jean-Luc Mériaux
Secretary General
Challenges of the European Beef Market
Third Beef Sector Forum
Warsaw – Poland 25/11/2016
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

2. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
What is the UECBV?
Today, UECBV represents 54 associations out of:
24 EU Member States as well as certain EFTA countries and EU candidate countries (Turkey).
Other countries, EU trade partners in the meat sector, are also associated to the UECBV (Japan, Russia)
3 European Associations
Livestock markets (AEMB)
Casings industry (ENSCA)
Ship suppliers (OCEAN)
In total, some 20,000 firms
of all sizes and over
230,000 jobs are represented
within the UECBV through
its national member federations.
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

3. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
Beef Market
Global Context
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

4. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
World context
Production
Global meat production – all sectors & regions
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

5. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
World context
Beef producers
World beef production ranking – 2016
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

6. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
World context
Trade
Growth in trade by commodity
Annual percentage growth in volume terms
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

7. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
World context
Beef prices
World Beef Prices
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

8. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
Beef Market
EU Context
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

9. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
EU context
Meat production
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

10. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
EU context
Trade/Import
Beef & live animals imports
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

11. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
EU context
Trade/Exports
Beef & live animals exports
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

12. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
EU context
Beef forecasts
Short term
Short Term Forecast
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

13. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
EU context
Beef forecasts
Long term
Beef and veal market projections for the EU
2016
2017
2026 Forecast
Difference
Annual change %
Total number of cows (millions of heads)
35,3 35
34,3 -1
-0,3
Of which dairy cows
23,1
22,8
21,7
-1,4
-0,6
Of which suckler cows
12,3
12,2
12,5
0,2
Gross indigenous production
8150
8145
7529
-621
-0,8
Of which EU15
7040
7095
6719
-320
-0,5
Of which EUN13
1111
1050
810
-301
-3,1
Imports of live animals
-0,4
Exports of live animals
235 80
-155
-10,2
Net production
7916
7450
-466
Consumption
7997
7592
-405
7396
7052
-344
602
540
-61
-1,1
Per capita consumption (kg rwe) 11
10,9
10,3
-0,7
12,7
11,9 4
4,1
3,7
Imports (meat)
309
318
323 14
0,4
Exports (meat)
227
233
183
-44
-2,1
Net trade (meat)
-82
-85
-139
-58
5,5
EU market price in €/t
3670
4002
332
0,9
Source: DG AGRI
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

14. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
EU context
Conclusions
Facts and concerns
Increasing supply linked to the repeal of the dairy quotas
Devaluation of the sterling pound is having a depressing effect on the EU average prices.
Increasing supply due to an increase in the slaughtering of dairy cows and heifers
Despite the Russian ban, EU exports are up in terms of both value and volume
EU consumption flat-lined, even slowed down
Down trend on the long term except for price
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

15. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
Free Trade Agreements
and other Challenges
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

16. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
FTAs recently concluded
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
UECBV – Meeting with the Philippines Delegation/SPS Study Tour, 13th April 2015, Brussels

17. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
FTAs/Ongoing negotiations
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
UECBV – Meeting with the Philippines Delegation/SPS Study Tour, 13th April 2015, Brussels

18. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
FTA
Categorization
Defensive interest
Australia
Canada / CETA
MERCOSUR
New Zealand
Ukraine / DCFTA
USA / TTIP
Mexico
Offensive interest
Japan
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
Indonesia
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

19. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
EU Trade Policy
Strategy for the
EU meat sector
Commission cumulative Impact Assessment (IA)
No full liberalization/Sensitive products
TRQ volume outcomes will be critical
Fair market access – cuts in natural fall
End-use
TRQ management – sub-quotas
EU must secure guarantees from Third Countries to address multiple SPS and other non-tariff barriers
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016

20. OIE Regionalization principle
Market access
SPS barriers
Beef
Pork
Sheep meat
BSE ban
OIE Regionalization principle
TSE rules
Long approval procedure
MS-by-MS approval (EU as Single Entity)
Long waiting period for audit/inspection
Non-application of audit-based inspections (individual establishment approved)
Non-transparent procedures
“born/raised/slaughtered” clause
NL paper, duties for the COMM
The role of the Commission in preparing answers to questionnaires could in our opinion be enhanced, although the Commission should then also be prepared to the work load that this would take. It should however not lead to delays in the process. Secondly the Commission could work on simple and clear presentations on certain aspects of food safety and animal health policy that can be used by MS when they have contacts with third countries. In this way uniformity in the messages that we send can be achieved. The draft document on regionalization is a positive example of the possibilities in this field. Furthermore we could look into the attendance of Commission personnel to 3rd country inspection missions in MS.
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
UECBV – Meeting with the Philippines Delegation/SPS Study Tour, 13th April 2015, Brussels

21. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
Market access
SPS barriers
Success stories
for the EU beef
Resolved SPS restrictions
Country
Product
Measure MS
Canada
beef
BSE ban/1997 19
China
BSE ban/15 years
HU/RO/IE⁽¹⁾/NL⁽¹⁾/
Columbia
animal products
ES⁽¹⁾/PT⁽¹⁾/FR⁽¹⁾
Japan
BSE ban
FR/NL/IE/PL/DK/IT
pork PL
Mexico
ES⁽¹⁾/FR⁽¹⁾ (DK)
Singapore
BSE ban/2000
FR⁽²⁾
Ukraine
28 MS⁽¹⁾
USA
BSE ban/1998
IE/LT/NL
sheep meat
TSE LT
Vietnam
NL paper, duties for the COMM
The role of the Commission in preparing answers to questionnaires could in our opinion be enhanced, although the Commission should then also be prepared to the work load that this would take. It should however not lead to delays in the process. Secondly the Commission could work on simple and clear presentations on certain aspects of food safety and animal health policy that can be used by MS when they have contacts with third countries. In this way uniformity in the messages that we send can be achieved. The draft document on regionalization is a positive example of the possibilities in this field. Furthermore we could look into the attendance of Commission personnel to 3rd country inspection missions in MS.
⁽¹⁾ Trade does not resume yet; further procedure is needed.
⁽²⁾ Approval suspension due to BSE case.
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
UECBV – Meeting with the Philippines Delegation/SPS Study Tour, 13th April 2015, Brussels

22. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
The world is changing
Food production gets more attention
Only a 4.3% increase in arable land by 2050
Natural resources are limited
NL paper, duties for the COMM
The role of the Commission in preparing answers to questionnaires could in our opinion be enhanced, although the Commission should then also be prepared to the work load that this would take. It should however not lead to delays in the process. Secondly the Commission could work on simple and clear presentations on certain aspects of food safety and animal health policy that can be used by MS when they have contacts with third countries. In this way uniformity in the messages that we send can be achieved. The draft document on regionalization is a positive example of the possibilities in this field. Furthermore we could look into the attendance of Commission personnel to 3rd country inspection missions in MS.
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
UECBV – Meeting with the Philippines Delegation/SPS Study Tour, 13th April 2015, Brussels

23. GHG emissions from agricultural activity decline slightly by 2025
NL paper, duties for the COMM
The role of the Commission in preparing answers to questionnaires could in our opinion be enhanced, although the Commission should then also be prepared to the work load that this would take. It should however not lead to delays in the process. Secondly the Commission could work on simple and clear presentations on certain aspects of food safety and animal health policy that can be used by MS when they have contacts with third countries. In this way uniformity in the messages that we send can be achieved. The draft document on regionalization is a positive example of the possibilities in this field. Furthermore we could look into the attendance of Commission personnel to 3rd country inspection missions in MS.
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
UECBV – Meeting with the Philippines Delegation/SPS Study Tour, 13th April 2015, Brussels

24. Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
Conclusions
Challenges
Decreasing trend in the consumption of beef in Europe
Rise of vegetarianism & veganism.
Health concerns linked to red meat.
Impact of the dairy sector (volatility)
SPS issues.
BREXIT-related uncertainties( sterling pound fluctuation/Agreement).
FTAs (balanced/cautious approach).
Opportunities
International trade/FTAs
World demand will remain firm (Asia/Africa)
Live cattle exports(Mediterranean countries).
EU : growth of the halal market.
Third Beef Forum – Warsaw, Poland – 25th November 2016
UECBV – Meeting with the Philippines Delegation/SPS Study Tour, 13th April 2015, Brussels

25.
Thank you very much for your attention!