1. Introducing Precictive Analytics
Foundations
Terms and Definitions
Objectives
Methodology
„Prediction as a service“
Oxford AI (Microsoft)
Google ML Service
Amazon ML Service
IBM Watson Service
Wit.ai
etc.

2. Business Intelligence
Business intelligence (BI) is an umbrella term that includes the applications, infrastructure and tools, and best practices that enable access to and analysis of information to improve and optimize decisions and performance.
Source: Gartner IT Glossary, Own highlighting

3. Analytics
Analytics has emerged as a catch-all term for a variety of different business intelligence (BI)- and application-related initiatives. […] Increasingly, “analytics” is used to describe statistical and mathematical data analysis that clusters, segments, scores and predicts what scenarios are most likely to happen [… based on … ] huge mounds of internally generated and externally available data.
Source: Gartner IT Glossary, Own highlighting and abbreviation

4. Big Data
Big data is high-volume, high-velocity and/or high-variety information assets that demand cost-effective, innovative forms of information processing that enable enhanced insight, decision making, and process automation.
Source: Gartner IT Glossary, Own highlighting

5. Machine Learning
Machine learning is a method of data analysis that automates analytical model building. Using algorithms that iteratively learn from data, machine learning allows computers to find hidden insights without being explicitly programmed where to look.
(Source: SAS,

6. Data Science (I)
The field of data science is emerging at the intersection of the fields of social science and statistics, information and computer science, and design. (Source: University of Berkeley
Data Science is an essential skill for analyzing and deriving useful insights from data, big and small.  (Source:

7. Data Science (II)
Data Science is an interdisciplinary field about processes and systems to extract knowledge or insights from data in various forms, either structured or unstructured, which is a continuation of some of the data analysis fields such as statistics, data mining, and predictive analytics, similar to Knowledge Discovery in Databases. (Source: Wikipedia, Retrieved at )

8. Business Intelligence
Relating Definitions
Data Science
Business Intelligence
Analytics
Machine Learning
Analytics  Data Science
Business Intelligence  Data Science
Machine Learning  Analytics
Business Intelligence  Analytics  

9. „Prediction as a service“
Agenda
Foundations
Terms and Definitions
Objectives
Methodology
„Prediction as a service“
Oxford AI (Microsoft)
Google ML Service
Amazon ML Service
IBM Watson Service
Wit.ai
Usw.
… and I will briefly explain what that is and how these types of data can be used in order to improve fuel price predictions. My talk will end with some conclusions on future directions. Now, what is open data?

10. Objectives of “Predictive Analytics”𝑓
Unknown Data
Prediction
Find a function f
Such that Predicition is as True as possible…
… for arbitrary unknown data
We call f a prediction model
Prediction is either a number (regression) or a category (classification)

11. Approach “Supervised learning”𝑓
Unknown Data
Known Outcome
Learn prediction model f using known data, such that
f produces known output…
… without loosing generality of f wrt. Unknown data

12. How to ensure generality of f
Known data
With
Known output
Test Data
(validate f)
Training Data
(learn f)
Split known data into two parts
Use larger part (typically 70%) for learning f (aka. Training Data Set)
Use smaller part (1 – train) for testing how f works for “unknown” data (aka. Test Data Set)
Accept prediction model f , if Prediction matches “Known Outcome” well enough

13. Actual Outcome vs. Prediction
Aka. Confusion Matrix
Compare prediction generated by f with actual known data (available for test data)
Prediction
Yes No
Correct
Wrong
Known Outcome
Actual

14. „Prediction as a service“
Agenda
Foundations
Terms and Definitions
Objectives
Methodology
„Prediction as a service“
Oxford AI (Microsoft)
Google ML Service
Amazon ML Service
IBM Watson Service
Wit.ai
Usw.
… and I will briefly explain what that is and how these types of data can be used in order to improve fuel price predictions. My talk will end with some conclusions on future directions. Now, what is open data?

15. “Prediction as a service”
Company created the prediction model f using their data
You just use the f and obtain a prediction using your data, (commercial) services available for
OCR
Voice Recognition
Language Translation
Computer Vision
Speech Synthesis …
Can use services from Google, Microsoft, IBM, Amazon, and others…
Mostly $$$ (Pay as you go) with free trial

16. „Prediction as a service“
Agenda
Foundations
Terms and Definitions
Objectives
Methodology
„Prediction as a service“
Oxford AI (Microsoft)
Google ML Service
Amazon ML Service
IBM Watson Service
Wit.ai
Usw.
… and I will briefly explain what that is and how these types of data can be used in order to improve fuel price predictions. My talk will end with some conclusions on future directions. Now, what is open data?

17. Microsoft Cognitive Services (fka Project Oxford)

18. Microsoft Cognitive Services Overview
Source: (Retrieved April 2016)

19. Object Recognition
Source:

20. Celebrity Recognition
Source:

21. OCR (Text Recognition)
Source:

22. Hands On Try Yourself Developer View (Requires Free Registration)
Developer View (Requires Free Registration)

23. „Prediction as a service“
Agenda
Foundations
Terms and Definitions
Objectives
Methodology
„Prediction as a service“
Oxford AI (Microsoft)
Google ML Service
Amazon ML Service
IBM Watson Service
Wit.ai
Usw.
… and I will briefly explain what that is and how these types of data can be used in order to improve fuel price predictions. My talk will end with some conclusions on future directions. Now, what is open data?

24. Google Cloud Vision API
Detects objects on image
Detects inappropriate content (FamilyFilter)
Detect sentiment (happyiness, age, gender)
Extract Text (OCR – Object Recognition)

25. Google Cloud Vision API Capabilities
Source:

26. Google Cloud Vision API Pricing
Source: (Retrieved April 2016)

27. Demo – Image Labeling Your image
Source:

28. Demo – Image Labeling
Request
Available Types

29. Demo – Image Labeling
97,9% Dog

30. Demo 2 – Violence Detection
Source: Spartacus TV Series

31. Demo 2 – Violence Detection
Object Recognition
Safe Search Recognition

32. Summary / Learning Questions
What is a prediction model ?
What is required to use a prediction model?
How is a prediction model generated ?
How to assess the quality of a prediction?