1. What is new with the Forest Vegetation Simulator?
Erin Smith-Mateja
Biometrics Group
Forest Management Service Center
USDA-FS-WO

2. Outline FMSC/FVS Overview Carbon Accounting Climate Extension
PN & WC updated mortality equations
New Organon-FVS Variants
OPEN-FVS
Database
New FVS Interface…

3. Forest Management Service Center
A sub-staff of the USDA Forest Service National Headquarters Forest Management Staff
Supports timber sales contracting and forest modeling
Provides biometric support to the Forest Service and our partners

4. Biometric Support Areas
Forest Products Measurement
develops and maintains timber cruising, scaling, volume and biomass calculation, and area determination software
Forest Vegetation Modeling
enhances, maintains and supports the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a nationally supported framework for growth and yield modeling

5. What is FVS?
Individual-tree, distance-independent growth and yield model
Responsive to site, structural differences and management actions common to forest stands found throughout the United States

6. Suggested Range Map

7. Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE)
Incorporates existing fire behavior and effect models with new snag and fuel dynamic models
Simulate additional stand biomass dynamics over time for live and dead:
standing trees (boles and crowns)
surface fuels
Predict or simulate the effects of fire on stand components

8. Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE)
Use of SVS to communicate management alternatives and impacts of fire on stands.
Wildfire with out management vs. with management.

9. Carbon Model Converts stand biomass estimates to carbon
Estimates carbon removed from the stand through harvest and fire activities
Estimates the fate of harvested products
Approved for estimating carbon stock changes in American Carbon Registry (ACR) projects.

10. FVS Climate Extension Base FVS Assumes: Past Climate = Future Climate
Climate FVS Assumes:
Past Climate ≠ Future Climate

11. General Circulation Models (GCM)
Canadian Center of Climate Modeling and Analysis
The Community Earth System Model
CGCM3-A2
CCSM4_rcp60
CGCM3-B1
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
CGCM3-A1B
GFDLCM3_rcp60
Met Office Hadley Centre –UK (HADMC3)
Hadley Center/Met Office (UK)
HADMC3-A2
HadGEM2ES_rcp60
HADMC3-B2
Our ensemble of 17 AR5 model predictions
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory -Princeton University, NOAA Research (GFDLCM21)
Ensemble_rcp45
Ensemble_rcp60
GFDLCM21-A2
Ensemble_rcp85
GFDLCM21-B1

12. Example of Predicted Climate Change

13. Predicted Species Ranges 1990-2090
Utah juniper
Pinyon pine

14. Viability Score Example
Viability Scores* Location on Siskiyou NF
CODES:
PILA
PSME
QUKE
1990
0.910
0.857
0.633
2030
0.835
0.803
0.805
2060
0.539
0.640
0.898
2090
0.396
0.787
0.763
* Lat: 42.5 Long: , Elev: 2400, based on Ensemble RCP60

15. Climate Extension
Provides a tool for considering the effects of climate change on forested ecosystems
Modifies growth, mortality, and regeneration models based on various climate scenarios
Available in the western US, development in eastern US is ongoing

16. FVS-ORGANON Idea of merging these models is not new Broaden user base
BLM interest (funding)
Blessings from developers

17. FVS-ORGANON 1st try used ORGANONS DLLS
2nd try incorporates ORGANON FORTRAN subroutines into FVS code
3rd added additional functionality
Trees less than 4.5 tall
Non-Organon species
Plant or add natural regeneration
Works with Event Monitor
Work with most FVS extensions
Uses FVS’s Canopy cover calculations
Default is FVS volume equations based on location

18. FVS-ORGANON
FVSoc
FVSop
smc
nwo
swo

19. FVSpn and FVSwc Mortality
3 stands- no thinning
Inventoried in the 1958 (478 TPA), 30 yrs old
Primarily DF, scattered WH, RA and BM
Grown and simulated forward to 2003
YEAR
AGE
TREES BA
SDI
TOP HT
QMD
average
ACTUAL
2003 84
193
354
510
156
18.4
Predicted OLDEQN
218
351
520
158
17.2

20. FVSpn and FVSwc Mortality

21. FVSpn and FVSwc Mortality

22. FVSpn and FVSwc Mortality
YEAR
AGE
TREES BA
SDI
TOP HT
QMD
average
ACTUAL
2003 84
193
354
510
156
18.4
predictedOLDEQN
218
351
520
158
17.2
Predicted NEWEQN
204
379
545
159

23. open-fvs Build Process/Download of source code API rFVS Vbnet-FVS
Source Forge
Build Process/Download of source code
VS, unix, rtools
API
rFVS
Vbnet-FVS

24. FMSC-FVS Contacts Forest Management Service Center
2150 Centre Ave, Bldg. A, Suite 341a
Fort Collins, CO
FVS Helpdesk
Erin Smith-Mateja
Mike Van Dyck, FVS group leader
Lance David Bob Havis
Chad Keyser Michael Shettles

25. FVS Website: www.fs.fed.us/fmsc/fvs