1. VILLA TORRI HOSPITAL, Bologna, Italy
LA STORIA NATURALE DELLA PATOLOGIA: VANTAGGI E LIMITI DEL TRATTAMENTO DEL SOLO SINTOMO
Josip Buric
Spine Surgery dpt.
VILLA TORRI HOSPITAL, Bologna, Italy

2. WHAT IS THE FATE OF A DISC HERNIATION?
DOES IT DEPEND ON THE SIZE, TYPE OR LOCATION OF THE HERNIATION?
OR IT DEPENDS ON SEX, AGE AND TYPR OF ACTIVITY?

3. WHAT SAYS THE LITERATURE ?

4. Weinstein et al. 2006 (SPORT)
Main problem: CROSS-OVER
Adherence to assigned treatment was limited: 50% of patients assigned to surgery received surgery within 3 months of enrollment, while 30% of those assigned to nonoperative treatment received surgery in the same period.
Intent-to-treat analyses demonstrated substantial improvements for all primary and secondary outcomes in both treatment groups. Between-group differences in improvements were consistently in favor of surgery for all periods but were small and not statistically significant for the primary outcomes.

5. Copyright © 2015 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
From: Surgical vs Nonoperative Treatment for Lumbar Disk Herniation:  The Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial (SPORT): A Randomized Trial
JAMA. 2006;296(20): doi: /jama
Figure Legend:
Age- and sex-weighted population normative scores are plotted for Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) scales. To enhance readability, the plot symbols and error bars for the surgical group are slightly offset. Error bars indicate 95% confidence intervals.
Date of download: 10/20/2015
Copyright © 2015 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.

6. Copyright © 2015 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
From: Surgical vs Nonoperative Treatment for Lumbar Disk Herniation:  The Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial (SPORT): A Randomized Trial
JAMA. 2006;296(20): doi: /jama
Figure Legend:
To enhance readability, the plot symbols and error bars for the surgical group are slightly offset. Error bars indicate 95% confidence intervals.
Date of download: 10/20/2015
Copyright © 2015 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.

7. From: Surgical vs Nonoperative Treatment for Lumbar Disk Herniation:  The Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial (SPORT): A Randomized Trial
JAMA. 2006;296(20): doi: /jama
Patients in both the surgery and nonoperative treatment groups improved substantially over the first 2 years
Between-group differences in improvements were consistently in favor of surgery for all outcomes and at all time periods but were small and not statistically significant except for the secondary measures of sciatica severity and self-rated improvement
Because of the high numbers of patients who crossed over in both directions, conclusions about the superiority or equivalence of the treatments are not warranted based on the intent-to-treat analysis alone

8. 3 articles with low risk of bias
CERVICAL DISC HERNIATION
Wong J et al The course and prognostic factors of symptomatic cervical disc herniation with radiculopathy: a systematic review of the literature. The Spine Journal , Volume 14 , Issue 8 , 1781 – 1789 , 2013
Wong et al. 2013
8 articles (1221) treating on symtpomatic cervical disc herniations were identified
3 articles with low risk of bias
Substantial improvements tend to occur within the first 4 to 6 months post-onset Time to complete recovery ranged from 24 to 36 months in, approximately, 83% of patients

9. Clinical Neurology and Neurosurgery , Volume 120 , 136 – 141
LUMBAR DISC HERNIATION - SEQUESTRATION
Macki M et al. Spontaneous regression of sequestrated lumbar disc herniations: Literature review.
Clinical Neurology and Neurosurgery , Volume 120 , 136 – 141
Macki et al. 2015
53 cases
Symptoms resolution  ± 1.34 months
Radiographic resolution  ± 13.32 months
Sequestrations may have the highest likelihood to radiographically regress in the shortest time frame in comparison to the remaining subtypes of LDH

10. LUMBAR DISC HERNIATION
Chun-Chieh Chiu, Tai-Yuan Chuang, Kwang-Hwa Chang, Chien-Hua Wu, Po-Wei Lin, Wen-Yen Hsu. The probability of spontaneous regression of lumbar herniated disc: a systematic review. Clin Rehabil February 2015 vol. 29 no
Articles including:
patients with lumbar disc herniation treated conservatively
have at least two imaging evaluations of the lumbar spine
excluded patients with prior lumbar surgery, spinal infections, tumors, spondylolisthesis, or spinal stenosis
Chiu et al. 2015
31 articles included
9 articles applicable for probability calculation
Spontaneous regression: Complete resolution:
96% for disc sequestration -43% for sequestrated discs
70% for disc extrusion -15% for extruded discs
41% for disc protrusion
13% for disc bulging

11. LUMBAR & CERVICAL DISC HERNIATION
Alentado et al. 2014
13 studies (out 5719) were selected for inclusion.
Natural history studies demonstrated that 88% of patients with cervical radiculopathy and 70% of patients with lumbar radiculopathy showed improvement within 4 weeks following onset of symptoms
Outcomes and cost-effectiveness studies supported surgical intervention within 8 weeks of symptom onset for both cervical and lumbar radiculopathy.

12. Work Group Consensus Statement
LUMBAR DISC HERNIATION
Kreiner et al (NASS EBM GUIDELINES)
Question: what is the natural history of lumbar disc herniation with radiculopathy?
Work Group Consensus Statement
In the absence of reliable evidence relating to the natural history of lumbar disc herniation with radiculopathy, it is the work group’s opinion that most patients will improve independent of treatment.
Disc herniations will often shrink/regress over time.
Many, but not all, articles have demonstrated a clinical improvement with decreased size of disc herniations.

13. Seven studies (354 pts) were identified
SEVERE MOTOR DEFICIT
Balaji et al. 2013
Seven studies (354 pts) were identified
Complete recovery was seen in 38.4 % of patients following surgery and 32 % following non-operative treatment
Age and grade of motor deficit were identified as significant prognostic factors in some of the studies
The current available evidence is not robust enough to address the questions posed.