1. Election 2016: What Happened?
Prof. Jennifer N. Victor
@jennifernvictor

2. Questions Why were the forecasts wrong? How have our politics changed?
What should we expect in a Trump presidency?

3. Why were the forecasts wrong?

4. Polling averages: Clinton was never behind
Source: Pollster.com

5. All the poll-based forecasting models predicted Clinton win
But:
Clinton won the popular vote
Most models are not designed to predict Electoral College outcome
Polls were wrong-not-wrong
Source: New York Times

6. Hypothesis 1: Sample Error
Pollsters seek to estimate preferences among “likely voters”
“Likely voters” = “have you voted before”
This may have underestimated Trump vote
Solution: random sample from eligible voters and then weight by the probability of turnout.
H/T: Prof. Justin H. Gross

7. Hypothesis 2: Hard to poll undecideds
Independent, undecided, and third-party voters decided late.
Difficult to accurately predict their vote.

8. Polls correctly predicted support for Clinton, but not Trump
Polls are accurate predictors of Clinton vote
Polls consistently underestimate Trump vote
Mischiefs of Faction on Vox:

9. Hypothesis 3: Undecideds were “shy”
The “Bradley Effect”
When voters are reluctant to reveal their true preference in pre-election polls because they don’t want to be judged by pollsters.
Reluctance to show support for minority candidate.
Polling differs from outcome.
Some evidence for this, but we’re not sure WHY

10. Hypothesis 4: Underestimated Fundamentals
Not all the models were wrong.

11. Not all forecasts were wrong
Some early forecasts based on structural features of election predicted Trump.
The Fundamentals:
Incumbency
President’s popularity
GDP growth

12. Fundamental #1
The longer a party holds the White House, the lower its probability of keeping it in the next election Democrats were seeking a third term.

13. Fundamental #2: Obama approval ratings
In the 12 elections from 1948 to 1992, when the party controlling the White House had a July presidential approval rating exceeding 50 percent, it won.
July 2016: Obama approval 49%

14. Fundamental #3: Gross Domestic Product
2nd quarter GDP growth is predictive of incumbent support
1.4 % growth is moderate

15. Election Fundamentals Trump Victory
1. Democrats seeking a third term
2. President Obama’s moderate popularity this year
3. Moderate economic growth mid-year

16. Hypothesis 5: Enthusiasm gap
How elections are won:
Turnout. Turnout. Turnout.
Republicans were more enthusiastic about their nominee than Democrats were about theirs.
Compare to 2012

17. 2016 Turnout was low
Vox.com

18. 2016 voter turnout favored Republicans
2016 voter turnout favored Republicans. Democrats did not engage like they did in 2012.
Source: CNN

19. Older, white, Northerners moving to Republicans; nonwhite Southwest moving to Democrats
Source: Washington Post/ Associated press

20. Non-college educated whites turned out, compared to 2012
The greater the density of whites without a college degree, the greater the swing to Trump, versus 2012.
Source: Washington Post/ Associated press

21. Questions Why were the forecasts wrong? How have our politics changed?
What should we expect in a Trump presidency?

22. How have our politics changed
Parties are weak
Republican elites failed to prevent an outsider from gaining their parties nomination
Partisanship is strong
Unusual & dangerous combination
Mischiefs of Faction on Vox.com
CNN exit polls

23. How our politics have changed: parties II
2016: Social/racial dimension grows in importance
Predict: Blue party begins to adopt more economic conservative policies (trade?)
Are parties realigning their voter coalitions?
Predict: Red party becomes more populist
Mischiefs of Faction on Vox.com

24. Questions Why were the forecasts wrong? How have our politics changed?
What should we expect in a Trump presidency?

25. Trump: unconventional candidate
Lack of support from his party’s elites.
Never held elected office or government position of any kind.

26. Trump endorsements
Source: fivethirtyeight.com

27. Trump newspaper endorsements
Source: Thehill.com

28. Trump favorability
Source: pollster.com

29. Trump raised less $
Source: opensecrets.org

30. Trump ran fewer ads
Team Clinton aired three times as many ads as Team Trump

31. Trump had fewer field offices
Clinton had more than twice as many field offices as Trump
Source: fivethirtyeight.com

32. Everything about Donald Trump makes him an unconventional president.
Trump Unconventional
Everything about Donald Trump makes him an unconventional president.
Our uncertainty about how he will govern is enormous. No one knows. No one.

33. Concerns Legitimizing racism, vulgarity.
Deepening American polarization.
Threats to the norms and institutions that make democracy function
Threats to the legitimacy of elections
Encouraged voter suppression and intimidation (universal suffrage)
Threatened to jail opponent (due process)
Intimidated journalists (free press)
Calls for nuclear proliferation (reckless)
Questioned international treaties, like NATO

34. Evidence of Reasonableness
Bluster may have been just for the campaign show
Trump chose Mike Pence
Victory speech was moderate
Unified government means
Less gridlock
Easy for voters to assign future credit/blame

35. American Democracy Flawed and imperfect Robust
Not a spectator sport. Work!