1. Michael Rogan ISER- Rhodes University 23 March, 2017
Study choices and job matching among graduates from two Eastern Cape universities
Michael Rogan
ISER- Rhodes University
23 March, 2017

2. Policy: National Development Plan:
Increase of gross enrolments  from 950,000 in 2010 to 1,6 million in 2030, a 70% increase
University science and mathematics entrants to increase three-fold by 2030
Increase graduation rates to 25% (of total enrolment)
Envisages an increase in higher education enrolments from 17.9% in 2012 to 25% by 2030

3. Objectives: 1) Graduate unemployment: Linked with study choices?
Or linked with ‘non-HE’ factors such as social networks, schooling disadvantages
3) Job matching:
Which graduates find the ‘right jobs’?
Are study choices associated with working in a ‘graduate job’?

4. The Eastern Cape Study:
Tracer study of the 2010 and 2011 cohorts from the University of Fort Hare (HDI)and Rhodes University (HAI) who graduated with a Bachelor’s degree
Stratified (by subjects and institution) probability sample of 1,211 graduates representing the total population of 4,927 graduates
Response rates of 39% and 47% per cent, respectively
Fieldwork = online survey and telephonic interviews

5. Graduate Unemployment

6. Figure 1: Broad unemployment rates (as of March 1st), by field of study
Notes: The data are weighted.

7. Figure 2: The correlates (log odds) of graduate unemployment, by university (main effects)

8. Figure 3: The correlates (log odds) of graduate unemployment, by university (interaction terms)

9. Figure 4: Using social networks to find employment (among employees)
Notes: The data are weighted.

10. Job Matching

11. Figure 4: Job matching status among employed graduates, by institution (%)
Note: The data are weighted.

12. Table 2: The correlates of being overqualified (estimation by probit)
Rhodes
Fort Hare
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Female
0.0899
(0.174)
0.0408
(0.182)
(0.189)
(0.145)
0.0536
(0.155)
0.0347
(0.160)
Black
-0.266
(0.180)
-0.317*
(0.190)
-0.260
(0.192)
---
Schooling
Low quintile
0.359*
(0.208)
0.335
(0.216)
0.321
(0.217)
0.362**
(0.153)
0.434***
0.425**
(0.170)
Higher grade math or science
-0.195
(0.178)
-0.207
(0.188)
-0.227
(0.197)
-0.193
(0.275)
-0.226
(0.296)
-0.125
(0.314)
Higher education
SET degree
-0.167
(0.232)
-0.242
(0.246)
0.0111
(0.228)
Commerce degree
(0.230)
-0.160
0.367**
(0.169)
0.231
(0.181)
Distinction
-0.120
(0.293)
-0.303
(0.312)
0.238
(0.280)
0.0866
(0.305)
Employment characteristics
Public sector
-0.256
(0.266)
-0.116
(0.177)
Part-time
0.551*
(0.282)
Permanent
-0.466**
(0.195)
-0.399**
(0.168)
_cons
-1.239***
(0.212)
-1.133***
(0.227)
-0.718***
(0.260)
-1.375***
(0.152)
-1.505***
(0.187)
-1.166***
(0.250)
(unweighted) N
376
368
354
504
437
418
Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. The data are weighted. Marginal effects reported.

13. Conclusions:
Study choice has limited impact on employment or job matching
Disadvantages in schooling quality carrying over into the labour market (even for successful graduates)
Several possible points of efficiencies/blockages
Signalling vs. matching/social networking?