1. Public Transport trip planner utilizing historical delay and crowding data
Olav Kåre Malmin, Petter Arnesen and Erlend Dahl
ETC
Name
Place
Month 2016

2. Background: The Stratmod project (Norway and Sweden)
A project aming to apply new and alternative sources of data in a strategic transport model
Developed for predicting effects of various policy changes
Impacts of delays in public transport
Impacts of crowing in public transport

3. Analysis of historical Data from the public transport system IN OSLO

4. Log from Ruter – PT operator in Oslo, Norway
Database containing all stops for all public transport modes in Oslo
Scheduled and actual arrival/departure times
Number of passengers boarding and alighting for buses and trams
A database with capacity information for all vehicles
Complete data set from March and April 2015

5. Delay for a specific route

6. Delay on bus stop

7. Delay on board

8. Crowding
Seat capacity (28)

9. A Trip planner utilizing historical delay and crowding

10. How about a trip planner that:
Returns realistic transfer points
Returns arrival times so that you actually will be on time
Photo: groruddalen.no

11. OpenTripPlanner Open-source trip planner
Ruter's public trip planner uses OpenTripPlanner (web, app)
All PT lines are available in GTFS-format on labs.ruter.no

12. Modified OpenTripPlanner (OTP)
We updated the GTFS data by adding mean delays to the travel times.
We added mean crowding to the input data set.
The trip planner returns:
Suggested routes with (more) realistic transfer points.
Travel times with average delay.
Average delay.
Average crowding on the suggested routes.

13. Suggestion for trip without delay:

14. Suggestion for trip with delay:
1 minute delayed departure
7 minutes delayed arrival

15. Without delays: With delays: Bus number 21 is the second best option
Bus number 21 is the best option
Also, this is actually the previous bus
number 23 (compared to OTP
without delays)

16. NO INFORMATION THAT BUS 24 IS AN OPTION!!!
Without delays:
Tram number 13 is the best option
Tranfer to bus number 23
With delays:
NO INFORMATION THAT BUS 24 IS AN OPTION!!!
Tram number 13 is the second best option
Tranfer to bus number 24.
Because of delays, transfer to bus
number 23 is not possible.

17. Results from modified OTP
    "proposalsString" : [
        [
            "Gå i minutter fra ( , ) til ( , ).",
            "Ta buss linje 21 mot Helsfyr T i 3.00 minutter fra Bryggetorget til Lapsetorvet.",
            "Gå i 6.63 minutter fra ( , ) til ( , )."
        ],
            "Gå i minutter fra ( , ) til ( , ).",
            "Ta buss linje 54 mot Aker brygge i 2.00 minutter fra Rådhuset til Dokkveien.",
            "Gå i minutter fra ( , ) til ( , )."
            "Gå i 2.05 minutter fra ( , ) til ( , ).",
            "Ta buss linje 60 mot Tonsenhagen i 4.00 minutter fra Vippetangen til Jernbanetorget.",
            "Ta buss linje 54 mot Aker brygge i minutter fra Jernbanetorget til Bryggetorget.",
        ]
    ],
    "proposalDurations" : [
        1948,
        1923,
        1541

18. Results from modified OTP
            {
                "lineName" : "21",
                "from" : {
                    "lat" : ,
                    "lon" : ,
                    "id" : "1: ",
                    "name" : "Bryggetorget"
                },
                "vehicleType" : "buss",
                "headsign" : "Helsfyr T",
                "to" : {
                    "lat" : ,
                    "lon" : ,
                    "id" : "1: ",
                    "name" : "Lapsetorvet"
                "stageType" : "vehicle",
                "duration" : 180,
"delay" : 20,
"crowding" :
            },

19. Remarks and further work
Using 85 % percentile instead of mean for actual trip planning
Can crowding be used as a parameter in the optimal route search?
Data only from March and April. Different results might be expected for another time of the year?