1. Media & Computational methods
Dr. Nel Ruigrok; Co-owner of LJS Media Research and affiliated at the Erasmus University Rotterdam
Dr. Wouter van Atteveldt; Associate Professor at the VU University Amsterdam and co-owner LJS Media Research

2. Overview
Dutch politics & the rise of populism in the Netherlands from 1945 – now
Dutch elections in 2017
BREAK
Mediated public dimplomacy: Gaza
Computational Social Science
Please interupt whenever you have a question or remark!

3. Dutch political system
No districts -> Netherlands is just one district (17 million people)
Proportional representation
No threshold -> votes represented one seat in Parliament
150 members of Parliament
75 members of the Senate
King: Willem-Alexander
Queen: Maxima

4. Current politics TOTAL 150 seats Liberals (VVD) 33 seats
Party for freedom (PVV, populist right wing) 20 seats
Christian Democrats 19 seats
Liberal Democrats 19 seats
Green Party 14 seats
Socialist Party14 seats
Social Democrats 9 seats
Christian Union 5 seats
Party for the animals 5 seats
50plus (party for elderly) 4 seats
DENK (party for Maroccan and Turkish minorities) 3 seats

5. Pillarization

6. Dutch journalism 1945- Period Dominant Logic Issue Diversity
Actor bias
Negativity
Agenda Setting
1945 – 1960
Pillarization
Partisan
High external, focus on own issues
Partisan bias, institutional focus
Low
Own party dominates
1960 – 1989
Critical autonomy
Journalistic
High internal
Open representation, personalized
Medium, criticism focused on power
Even-handed political and media
1989 – now
Commercial
Audience
Low, concentrated in Hypes
Power bias, presidentialized
Negative, criticism focused away from power
Powerful politicians and intra-media dominate

7. Dutch Journalism Partisan logic (1945-1960) Watchdog journalism
Media logic from

8. Personalization of political news coverage

9. News waves

10. The Netherlands' 15 minutes of (in)fame: political coverage and populism in the Dutch 2017 elections
Funded by the Dutch journalism fund

11. Uitleg waarom de Jaren 2007 en 2011

12. Research question
What media sources are used by different groups of voters in society, what is the content of these media and what is the effect of media coverage on voters’ voting behavior and support for democratic procesesses?
This can be traced to a new dividing line created by increasing globalization between those profiting from free movement of goods, capital, and people; and those who feel that these developments makes them worse off (Kriesi et al, 2006). This division cuts across existing political cleavages, as globalization “winners and losers” can be found both on the traditional political left and right. This makes globalization-related issues such as immigration, EU support and free trade ‘wedge issues’: any strong position taken by a political party on these issues risks alienating a substantial part of their electorate (Kleinnijenhuis & Van Atteveldt, 2016; Van de Wardt et al., 2014). A crucial aspect of this changing political landscape is the conceptualization and (associative) framing of immigration, EU-support, and free trade (Schuck & De Vreese, 2006; Vliegenthart & Roggebrand, 2007; Ruigrok & Van Atteveldt, 2008). Are these associated mostly with benefits such as peace and prosperity, or with problems such as uncertainty, inequality, and job losses? By studying the conceptualization of these issues in news content, we can place the pressing political questions of increasing populism and decreasing trust in national and supranational political institutions in a new and uniquely historical perspective. This will answer two substantive questions:

13. Methods used Survey in different waves Content analyses (AmCAT)
Ranging from respondents to who filled in every wave
Content analyses (AmCAT)
Bottom-up analyses
Top-down analyses
In-depth interviews with voters of specific groups (young, angry white man)

14. Groups of media users FACEBOOK USERS
Young voters, especially low educted.
They do not search for political news but they get their news through Facebook or news widget on Iphone
More trust in media than older people, FB is less trusted than other media  
NEWS SITES ONLINE
Young people but also middle and higher educated people between years
Young people turst online sites more than older people. News sites more trusted than Facebook, but less trusted than TV and Newspapers
TELEVISION
Elderly voters (60+), especially lower educated
Television is less trusted by older people than younger people. Television more trusted than Internet sites and Facebook, but less trusted than Newspapers
NEWSPAPERS
Elderly voters (60+) especially higher educated
Newspapers enjoy most trust among voters, by all groups. Young people trust newspapers more than older people.  

15. Media attention political parties
Right Wing
Political middle
Left Wing

16. Substantive issues

17. Horse race news

18. Increased Facebook users per political party

19. Effects on media users FACEBOOK USERS
More immigration news, crime, and terrorism
More extreme right news coverage and DENK
A lot of horse race news
More distrust in politics, especially under young voters. More populist opinions
Problems: terrorism, crime, immigration; higher educated also environment and education
NEWS SITES ONLINE
Not a clear focus in news coverage. Relative more social democrats, but mix of issue coverage.
Average of horse race news coverage
Average interest/distrucst in politics
Average populist opinions
Problems: environment, individual liberties, immiration, education
TELEVISION
Relative more terrorism, crime, immiration news
More right wing parties
More news coverage on horse race
More distrust than interest in politics
Stronger populist opinions
Problems: terrorism, crime, immigration
NEWSPAPERS
Relative more economy news
Relative more Liberal party and Social Democrats
Relative less news on horse race
Mort interest than distrust in politics
Less strong populist opinions
Problems: environment, education, individual liberties

20. Conclusion Facebook is an important media outlet
Young voters get their news via Facebook and news widgets on iphone
They do not search for news coverage themselves. Only if they cannot avoid it, they will read it.
No specific news channels for difficult groups
Angry white man -> news via Facebook, television, news sites

21. Conclusion News coverage does influence how people look at the news.
Especially with respect to most important problems
Facebook also an important tool for the political parties -> especially for base
Traditional news media also important for the masses

22. BREAK!
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