1. Will Our Kids Be Able To Buy? Supporting Affordable Home Ownership
Evergreen Brickworks
November 7th 2016
Steve Pomeroy
Focus Consulting Inc. &
Carleton University Centre for Urban Research and Education (CURE), Ottawa
Focus Consulting inc. CURE (C) 2015

2. Outline Identifying perceptions on affordability Some context
Recent examples to assist access to H/O
Potential for scaling up
Focus Consulting Inc. 2016

3. Ownership Rate
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4. Ownership Rate
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5. Ownership Rate
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6. Ownership Rate
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7. Mortgage trend is a key factor
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8. Increasing Purchase Capacity
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9. Increasing Purchase Capacity
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10. Increasing Purchase Capacity
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11. Prices Reflect Capacity to Pay
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12. Prices Reflect Capacity to Pay
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13. Access vs. carrying costs
Need to consider increasing down payment challenge
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14. Importance of fundamentals Last decade vs. future
Mortgage rates
Employment and income growth
Household Growth & Migration (more regional)
Policy measures
Extending then reducing max amortization
Macro-Prudential policy revisions
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15. Income and capacity to buy across cities
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16. Income and capacity to buy across cities
* Max potential – pre stress test Oct 2016
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17. Income and capacity to buy across cities
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18. Implications for future
Past trends, data differ from perception of access/affordability
Fundamentals and factors now changing (reversing?)
Affordability varies across country
Compounding effect of recent unfavourable policy changes – including Oct 2016 stress test
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19. Implications for future
Potentially access/affordability may be more constrained
Implications for access to ownership
Concurrent implications for rental sector (residual demand and rent pressure)
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20. Recent initiatives to increase access for buyers at margin of affordability
For details see Lampert and Pomeroy (2015, ) Assessment of Alternative Measures to Promote Access to Homeownership, CHBA
Focus Consulting Inc. 2016

21. Research into H/O assistance
Examined current experience and array of approaches
Type of mechanisms
Proponent/sponsor
Target group,
Cost per hh supported
Scale of initiative
Focus Consulting Inc. 2016

22. Typology of mechanisms
Tax Credits and Refunds (of taxes)
Grants (down payment)
Loans (to augment/increase DP)
Discounted prices with windfall recapture (SAM etc)
“Innovative” mortgage arrangements
Focus Consulting Inc. 2016

23. Tax Credits and Refunds
First-Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit – Canada
First-Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit – Saskatchewan
First-Time Home Buyers’ Program – B.C.
Land Transfer Tax Refund – Ontario (and Toronto)
Home Ownership Program – Montreal
Focus Consulting Inc. 2016

24. Grants First-Time Home Buyers’ Bonus – B.C. The HOME Program – Alberta
Owen Hart Home Owners’ Program – Calgary
Affordable Home Ownership Program
– Saskatchewan
Innovative Residential – Saskatoon
Down Payment Assistance Program – Nunavut
Focus Consulting Inc. 2016

25. Down Payment (or Equity Loans)
PEAK Home Ownership Program – Calgary
Equity Building Program – Saskatoon
HeadStart on a Home – Saskatchewan
Down Payment Loans – Ontario municipalities
Family Access Program – Ville de Quebec
Home Ownership Program – New Brunswick
Down payment Assistance Program – Newfoundland and Labrador
PATH (Providing Assistance to Territorial Homeownership
– N.W.T.
Down Payment Assistance Program
– Yukon
Focus Consulting Inc. 2016

26. Innovative Mortgage Arrangements
Springboard Program – Vancouver
Attainable Homes – Calgary
INHOUSE – Calgary
Options for Homes and Home Ownership Alternatives – Toronto (and Other Canadian centres)
Trillium Housing – Ontario
Accès Condos – Montreal
Focus Consulting Inc. 2016

27. Characteristics of current programs
Generally modest in scale/scope
Most locally developed/implemented
Small-modest level of assistance
Seek to narrowly target to avoid influencing price inflation, targeting those otherwise unable to buy
Most have assisted fewer than 500 buyers
Focus Consulting Inc. 2016

28. Getting to scale
In face of constrained access, is there a need to expand and scale up current initiatives?
What are scalable options?
Can H/O access be increased with no/minimal cost to government
E.g. targeted reintroduction of 30 year amortization for eligible 1st buyers?
Potential of SAM models as more sustainable than outright grants (recycle limited public $)
Focus Consulting Inc. 2016

29. Thank you!
Additional background reports available at