1. The essence of data in climate change response.
Parliamentary Colloquium: Unpacking The COP21 Paris Agreement
Implications for the Nation
OLD ASSEMBLY CHAMBER: PARLIAMENT
28 October 2016
Mr. Mnikeli Ndabambi
South African Weather Service

2. Content Introduction Purpose Mandate Key Infrastructure
Climate change challenges SAWS strategic context
SAWS Climate change and Response initiatives
Forecasting Services
Products and Services
Research and Development
Development Capacity and Capability
Enabling Climate Change response
Conclusion

3. PURPOSE To brief the members on:- Data availability.
Data usage and value add.
Share products derived from weather and climatological data
in response to Climate Variability and Change

4. SAWS MANDATE Public Good Commercial
Established as an AGENCY on 15 June 2001
Two distinct Services:
Public Good
Commercial
Funded by Government Grant
User-pays principle applies
Tailor made products & services
Forecasts & Warnings

5. “A weather-SMART nation.”
CREATING A WEATHER-SMART NATION
VISION
“A weather-SMART nation.”
SAWS wants to achieve an end-state where citizens, communities and business sectors are weather resilient because they are able to use the information, products and services provided by SAWS optimally.
S – Safe
M – More informed
A – Alert
R – Resilient/Ready
T – Timeous

6. SAWS PRODUCTS & SERVICES
Training Centre
Research & Develop
Climate Services
Met
Authority
Technical
Services
Forecasting
Air Quality
Satellite Centre of Excellence
SA Air Quality Info System
ICAO compliance (Oversight)
Manufacturing & assembling
Aviation services
Observation research
Observation network
Now & short-term forecasting
National climate data bank
New product development
Marine services
Climate Change
Long-term forecasting & outlooks
Global Atmospheric Watch
General forecasting
Climate information
SADC specialized
Met centre
Climate services (NFCS)

7. OBSERVATIONS 1277 214 141 25 24 14 10 Rainfall stations
Automatic weather stations
141
Automatic rainfall stations 25
Climate stations 24
Lightning sensors 14
Radars 10
Upper air stations 20
Weather Offices

8. SAWS STRATEGIC CONTEXT
South African Weather Services Value Chain – Enabling climate change response
Networks
Data Collection
Science
Processing & Data Management
Content Value Add
Devices Dissemination
Strategy
Weather – ready
Nation
Scientific
Capability
R&D and Innovation towards establishing a robust Agro-Hydrometeorology
competence
Infrastructure
Recapitalisation
Human Capital
Development
Develop Products and services enabling Government, sectors, industries, communities……
Develop and facilitate Implementation of National Framework for Climate Services in partnership with various stakeholders
Socio-economic benefits study
Capacity Development
Infrastructure upgrade, expansion and optimisation
Improved service delivery to the agricultural sector – adoption of new products and applications
Skills Development
National Education Plan

9. DATA AVAILABLITY AND VALUE ADD
SAWS has 154 years historical data (National Climate Data Bank)*
Climatic means (averages) including:
daily,
monthly and
annuals have been established and can be made available if a user needs to compare current values with the long term means
Using the long series of rainfall data, mean dperiods of
onset and
cessation of the rain seasons have been established and the dates of earliest onset and cessations established. i.e. with appropriate standard deviations
e.g expect late rainfall onsets with short duration,

10. VALUE ADD-CONTINUES
SAWS is able to give the farmer (user), the risks associated with dry/wet spells of given lengths if he plants early, at time of onset and late onset
This information is of use to plan whether to intercrop.
Whereas most of SAWS’ forecasts indicate terminologies such as
“above Normal,
Below Normal and
Normal” with assistance of the Agrometeorological services, the same may be quantified for use in yield estimation and water management.
SAWS has application which use meteorological and climatological data to monitor crop development.

11. BENEFITS: AGRICULTURAL EXAMPLE

12. Weather Forecasts and Warnings
0 – 6 Hours
Hours
4 -10 Days
Days
30 Days– 2 Years
> 2 Years
Observations
Numerical Weather Prediction
Global Climate Model
Satellite
Radar
SAFFG
Synops
LDN
Upper Air
Regional (SADC)
Local (SA)
Mesoscale
Ensembles
MOS
Coupled: GCM+ Ocean
Medium range (ECMWF)
Ensembles (NCEP)
Multi-model Ensembles
Ocean Models -GCM Ensembles
Outlook:
Rainfall & temperature anomalies
Agro-meteorology advisory service
Advisories:
Potential hazardous weather events
Rain and temperature anomalies
Rainfall and temperature anomalies
Rainfall and Temperature Tendencies
Climate Change
Watches & Warnings:
Severe weather
Daily weather elements
Reducing the vulnerability of society, crops and livestock to climate-related hazards - air pollution, heat, floods, drought, lightning detection and diseases
Build necessary skills in the agro sector that enables better decisions – offering training to farmers and ensuring protection
of assets
Maximising the utilisation of existing weather and climate service infrastructure
Improving coordination, and strengthening and building infrastructure where needed – strategically positioning observation network
Benefits
Products
Tools
6-24 Hours
Forecast

13. Weather monitoring: 2015/16
El Niño droughts are associated with an eastward shift of tropical rain bearing clouds from the tropics. At the same time, higher pressures develop over South Africa, with descending warm and dry air at the surface.

14. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

15. DROUGHT MONITORING INDICTORS (DMI)

16. Rainfall Projections

17. National Temperature Scenarios
In the business-as-usual case (i.e. no mitigation), warming continues throughout the 21st century
the inland areas are projected to warm by more than 4°C above the reference period by (centered on 2085, right panel)

18. : Web Portal Three applications:
Customised weather-related web portals with security access, provides data and applications via the Internet to support weather sensitive industries to reduce water related challenges – accessed through the SAWS website
Three applications:
Weather Stations
At a click of a button - direct access to actual (real-time) and historical rainfall information
SAWS observation network data for planning & reporting purposes
Amount of rainfall at a specific location per hour / per day / per time series
RainMap
To optimize the proactive scheduling of weather sensitive activities to manage water resources
Reduce the need for additional rain gauges
Easily accessible information as quality checks improve the data
Personalised dashboards linked to own strategic indicators
Weather Forecast
Weather forecasts for specific locations over different time periods
Improves risk related planning
Reduces exposure to possible impacts of forecasted factors

19. POWER OF DATA MANIPULATION-e.g Provincial Scenarios

20. Key Message (Eastern Cape Province)
Variable
Message
Temperature
Under aggressive mitigation, the average 21st century warming is about 0.7°C [0.4 – 1.7] in all seasons
Under Business-as-usual scenario, warming increases progressively in the 21st century from about 0.9°C [0.6 – 1.5] between to 2.2°C [1.7 – 3.2] during and 3.3°C [2.6 – 4.9] towards the end of the century
Precipitation
Winter precipitation is projected to decrease by up to 15% [4 – 26%] towards the end of the century (2071 – 2100) under the business-as-usual scenario
Models are uncertain in terms of precipitation, with some models projecting an increase in precipitation and some projecting a decrease

21. Key Message (Free State Province)
Variable
Message
Temperature
Under aggressive mitigation, the average 21st century temperature stabilize around 1.5°C [0.5 – 2.3] in all seasons
Under Business-as-usual scenario, warming increases progressively in the 21st century from about 1.2°C [0.7 – 1.9] between to 2.7°C [1.9 – 4.1] during and 4.2°C [3.2 – 6.2] towards the end of the century
Precipitation
Winter precipitation is projected to decrease by up to 20% [8 – 28%] towards the end of the century (2071–2100) under the business-as-usual scenario
The range is very wide during other seasons, with some models projecting an increase in precipitation and some projecting a decrease

22. CONCLUSION Continue to enable Government, sectors, industries, etc
Provision of sector-specific products and services
Provision of advisory services to industry and key decision makers
Continued monitoring of drought, water resources and climate change impacts
Collaboration with Key sector players
Capacity building
Train users on Interpretation, usage and pro-active response to weather and climate information
Infrastructure operation and maintenance
Availability of human capital skilled in specialised fields e.g. meteorology, climatology, agro-meteorology, Hydro-meteorology
Infrastructure network expansion and optimisation
Improved prediction and accuracy
Strategic positioning of infrastructure – geo-specific information

23. Thank You! Questions?