1. Modelling climate change effects on viticulture João Santos et al.

2. Why is viticulture sensitive to climate?

3. Grapevine forcing factors

4. Climate conditions vs. physiological cycle
Heat accumulation

5. Climatic conditions vs. wine quality
Thermal forcing
(dependent on the variety)
Wine quality
Cool
Warm
Optimum
Sugar ↑
Alcohol ↑
Aroma ↓
Balance↓
High-quality
balanced
wines
Sugar↓
Alcohol↓

6. Climatic suitability: present and future
What should be expected in the future?
Average growing season temperature

7. Climatic suitability & climate change

8. Climate change projections
RCP8.5 ( ) minus recent-past ( )
Annual mean temperature (ºC)
Annual mean daily precipitation (mm)

9. Huglin/Dryness/Hydrothermal index
Very dry
Sub-humid
Moderate dry
Low risk
Very low risk
Moderate dry
Humid
Sub-humid
Low risk
Very low risk

10. Portuguese main grapevine varieties
44 grapevine varieties currently grown in Portugal

11. Thermal growing conditions
Growing degree hours
February-October

12. Thermal growing conditions
Chilling portions
October-February

13. Thermal growing conditions

14. Thermal growing conditions
How will grapevines respond to these changes?

15. Grapevine modelling & climate change

16. For every gridbox at 0.125º lon × 0.125º lat
STICS
For every gridbox at 0.125º lon × 0.125º lat
( cells)

17. Climate change – Flowering date
10/05
20/05
30/05
10/06
20/06
30/06
days
Change RCP8.5
Earlier flowering over all of Europe, mostly in Eastern Europe and some areas of France

18. Climate change – Water stress
Change RCP8.5
High stress
Low stress
Higher stress
Lower stress
Water stress intensification throughout Europe, reaching severe levels in some areas of inner Iberia

19. Climate change – Yields
Change RCP8.5
New suitable regions
t/ha
t/ha
Yields increase over central Europe and decrease over some areas of southern Europe

20. Impacts & adaptation measures

21. Local strength of climate change & time for adaptation
Main impacts
Southern Europe
Lower yields
Severe water stress
Extremely high temperatures may threaten wine quality
Rescheduling management activities
Central Europe
Higher yields
Water stress offset by CO2 increase
Increased sugar/alcohol levels
Higher N demands
More phytosanitary treatment
New wine regions
Impacts will largely dependent on:
Resilience of local varieties to climate change
Modifications in berry attributes/composition
Alterations in regional wine typicity
Socioeconomic conditions (e.g. financial)
Environmental constraints (e.g. water resources)
Local strength of climate change & time for adaptation

22. Adaptation measures Viticulture abandonment Vineyard re-location
Variety-clone-rootstock selection
Vineyard design
Climate change strength
Training & trellis systems
Irrigation
Pruning, sun screens, cover crops & soil tillage
Implementation time

23. Thank you very much!