1. Role of Fuels and Vehicle Technologies in achieving sustainable transport
Subash Dhar
UNEP DTU Partnership
Key Challenges faced by Developing Countries
Technology Needs for Sustainable Transport
Global Targets on fuel economy (GFEI) e.g. technology and policy innovation
Expert Group Meeting on “Special Needs and Challenges in Developing Countries for Achieving Sustainable Transport”
New York
May 10-11, 2016

2. Challenges for Sustainable Development
Mobility & Accessibility
(SDG 4.2 & 11.2)
Mobility Demand is low
Motorisation is low
Air Pollution
(SDG 3.9)
100 most polluted cities ?
Impacts
3.7 million deaths globally
Country
Trip Rate
Trip Length (km)
Total Travel Time (min)
Denmark
2.90
13.60
57.10 UK
2.66
11.71
59.34 US
3.79
16.20
60.00
India
1.36
5.07 -
Developing countries face multiple challenges from transport
Enhancing Mobility & Accessibility is essential to achieve the SDGs
SDG Access to education and opportunities,
SDG Affordable transport
Comparing with developed countries- motorisation is low , trip rate and trip lengths are low and therefore a higher demand is inevitable. Also since motorisation is low a rapid growth in motorised transport is likely
Despite low motorisation accidents are high and therefore increasing motorisation can complicate situation for safety
Source: Dhar, Pathak & Shukla, 2015
"Promoting Low Carbon Transport in India"

3. Challenges for Climate
Climate Change (SDG 13)
4 GT/yr by 2030 (IEA, 2015)
Co-benefits
Aligning Sustainable Development and Climate Goals
Mitigation Wedges for Transport: India
Climate Change is a global challenge
and transport important sector due to its growing contribution to CO2 emissions
Therefore there is a need to align sustainable development goals with climate goals
Needs a country specific analysis
Source : Dhar & Shukla, 2015.
"Promoting Low Carbon Transport in India"

4. Technology Needs for Transport
TNA Countries
40% prioritised transport
Vehicle & Fuel Technologies
Alternative fuels
Fuel Efficient Vehicles - LDV/HDV
Natural Gas Vehicles
Hybrid Vehicles (PHEV & HEV)
Electric Vehicles (EV)
etc
Given the challenges and improtance to SDG Transport has been prioritised by around 40% of countries as a priority sector within the TNA project
A wide variety of technologies would be needed
However vehicles and fuel technologies would play an important part
Source: Technology Database, TNA Project

5. Kaya Framework
Before we turn into vehicles anf fuel technologies let us look at where they fit in
Kaya Framework provides a simple tool for looking at this
To address the challenges described there is a need to work from both supply and demand side
Fuel and Vehicles form a part of supply side interventions
Can include alternative drive train technologies or alternative fuels
It can also be the same technology but smaller size.
The role of policy for catalyzing the changes is quite important

6. Global Fuel Economy Initiative
GFEI is a initiative that provides policy framework for advancing technology changes in vehicles
GFEI links with G20 Energy Efficiency action plan, SE4ALL, Paris Climate Agreement
GFEI promotes and supports a doubling of fuel economy of global fleet
Target to double the efficiency of the global fleet by 2050…. all new vehicles by 2030
Rates of improvement faster in OECD than developing countries and there is a covergence

7. Vehicle Size Trends Source: GFEI, 2016, Fuel State of the World, 2016
A major reason is behavioural change due to policies on fuel economy
In general most OECD countries have policies for fuel economy and therefore you are witnessing change in car sizes
Preference for medium /small sized cars is increasing in OECD however an opposite trend is emerging for developing countries
New Registered Vehicles
Source: GFEI, 2016, Fuel State of the World, 2016

8. Drive Train Technologies
Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)
Spark Ignition (Petrol)
Compression Ignition (Diesel)
Alternative Drive Train Technologies
Battery and Electric Motor Vehicles
Hybrid
Fuel Cells
Micro turbines
Catenary electric motors (Tram / Metro )
However behavioural shifts alone in vehicle size not sufficient and improvements in drive train are essential
These improvements can be within the ICE engine drive trains that is the current normal
Or it could be achieved by a shift to alternative drive train technologies

9. Potentional Improvement in ICE
ICE engine drive train offer potential for improvement and in all upto 50% improvements can be delivered.
These improvements can be achieved through
smaller engine sizes
direct injection of fuels
improvements to clutch
weight reduction
Source: Argonne National Laboratory, Automotive OEM press releases, Booz Allen Hamilton Technology Center, Booz & Company analysis

10. Alternative Drive Train Technologies
Battery Electric vehicles
Hybrid Petrol
Plug in Hybrids
Fuel Cells
Drive Range
km for cars, 60 km for 2 wheelers
Same as petrol cars
km on battery alone, remaining using ICE
Drive Train
Electric Motor
ICE, Electric Motor
Fuel Cell, Electric Motor
Market Status
Dominant technology for 2 wheelers in China, EV 4 W emerging a strong contender
More than 5.8 million vehicles globally sold till end of 2012
Few hundred globally
Energy consumption per pkm (w.r.t to a petrol engine) **
70-80% lower
11-22% lower
20-60% lower
55% - 70% lower
Typical Fuel
Electricity
Petrol
Electricity / Petrol /Diesel
Hydrogen
However far more reductions can be achieved through changing over to alternative drive train technologies
The potential for improvements and their impacts on sustainable development vary
country specific analysis can help in this
** IEA, 2009 Transport Energy & CO2; Kobayachi et. al., 2009 Energy efficiency technologies for road
11 vehicles. Energy Efficiency 2, 125–137; Plotkin et. al., 2009 Multi‐path transportation futures study : vehicle
12 characterization and scenario analyses

11. Case Study - India EVs
From our analysis of EVs in India we found the following
Aligning climate and EV specific policies can deliver the maximum improvements in both reduction of Co2 and local pollution
EVs policies alone will not produce any benefits for climate regional replication and outreach
Source: Shukla, et. al., 2014, Electric Vehicles Scenarios and Roadmap for India
"Promoting Low Carbon Transport in India"

12. E Mobility Program Focus : Developing and transitional countries
4 work streams:
1- electric 2 & 3 wheelers
2- electric bus fleets
3- national policies for electric vehicles
4- regional replication and outreach
Key issue is the energy content per unit of weight
Source of production

13. Conclusions Fuels and Vehicles essential for sustainable transport
Aligning climate and sustainable development goals can help in achieve more for both
Alignment of National and local policies
Policies are the key issue