1. Ines GRIGORESCU Gheorghe KUCSICSA Bianca MITRICĂ Irena Mocanu
5th Halle Forum on Urban Economic Growth
December 11-12, 2014
ASSESSING SPATIO-TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF URBAN SPRAWL IN THE BUCHAREST METROPOLITAN AREA
Ines GRIGORESCU
Gheorghe KUCSICSA
Bianca MITRICĂ
Irena Mocanu
ROMANIAN ACADEMY INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY

2. METROPOLITAN AREAS IN ROMANIA
BUCHAREST METROPOLITAN AREA
LEGISLATIVE APPROACH
POLITICAL APPROACH
SCIENTIFIC APPROACH
METHODS AND OBJECTIVES
KEY DRIVING FORCES OF URBAN SPRAWL
POLITICAL
DEMOGRAPHIC...
SPATIO-TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF BUILT-UP AREAS IN THE BUCHAREST METROPOLITAN AREA USING SIGNIFICANT INDICATORS ( / )
CONCLUSIONS

3. Towns/metropolitan areas in Romania grouped by demographic size
Town group/inh.
No. of towns in 2012
Towns which have undergone functional and prospective metropolitan areas
Total towns of which:
320 22
Small towns (total) with
215
under 5,000 20
5,000–10,000 98
10,000–20,000 96
Medium-sized towns (total) with: 81 5
20,000–50,000 59
1 (Simeria)
50,000–100,000
4 (Deva, Hunedoara, Râmnicu Vâlcea)
Large cities (total) with: 23 16
100,000–150,000 9
4 (Baia Mare, Suceava, Târgu Mureş, Satu Mare)
150,000–200,000 4
2 ( Bacău, Piteşti)
200,000–300,000
5 (Brăila, Braşov, Galaţi, Ploieşti, Oradea)
300, ,000
5 (Cluj-Napoca, Constanţa, Craiova, Iaşi, Timişoara)
Very large cities: 1
Over one million
1 (Bucharest)
Legal instruments according to which a metropolitan area is to be established based on the joint association of the administrative-territorial structures

4. LEGISLATIVE APROACH
the outline of metropolitan areas in Romania - metropolitan territory defined in the National Territory Management Plan, Section IV – Settlements (Law No. 351 of July 6th 2001) as zone (area) established through association, by voluntary partnership between the main urban centres (the capital city of Romania and the first-rank municipalities) and the adjoining urban and rural settlements situated at distances of up to 30 km, developing cooperation relations at different levels
completed by Law No. 350/2001, Ordinance No. 53/2002 and Law No. 286/2006 (local public administration) - offering new approaches to metropolitan organisation and management

5. METROPOLITAN AREAS IN ROMANIA
Metropolitan areas do not exist as independent administrative units in Romania. They exist as core cities and a number of small municipalities ranging from villages to small towns.
Over 11,000,000 inhabitants (55.0% of Romania’s total population) live in urban areas, of which 7,500,000 (34%) in metropolitan structures.

6. BUCHAREST METROPOLITAN AREA
SCIENTIFIC APROACH
1929, 1937, 1942 „urban region” the territory based on “the relationship between a city's build-up area – in this case Bucharest - and the surrounding area”
One of the first outlines of the Capital’s Metropolitan Area (Ianoş et al., ) included 94 local administrative units (villages and towns) from five counties: Ilfov, Călăraşi, Giurgiu, Dâmboviţa and Ialomiţa.
Development directions, ways and intensities of the Bucharest Municipality and its metropolitan zone. Environmental protection politics, Centre for Environmental Research and Impact Studies, University of Bucharest (requested by Urban Planning Centre of Bucharest Municipality)
the concept of metropolitan area takes into account two levels: a periurban level and a metropolitan level.

8. Ion Iordan considers the metropolitan zone as “a large territory where a city’s (metropolis) influence is felt in several fields. Its influence is affecting the agricultural structures, transport network, services, tourist activities, trade and education structures” - metropolitan area includes both the suburban and the periurban zones
Based on the delimitation made by Professor N. Rădulescu in terms of agricultural consumption products:
Suburban zone - very close to the urban space and consists of the outer neighbourhoods of the city
Periurban zone - surrounds the suburban zone enclosing it
Metropolitan zone - surrounds the periurban zone and encloses the other two
the territory and the settlements situated near the main cities having different and temporary relations and constituting a relatively large influence area of the city

9. Iordan, 1998, 2003

10. 2004, 2005, 2008 – Săgeată - based on the relations between settlements and the area falling under the influence of the Capital-city
The Capital’s indirect sphere of influence encompasses areas located at longer distances which tend to connect to Bucharest through secondary polarisation centres (Giurgiu, Olteniţa and Urziceni)
A large county-like metropolitan area comprising 4 units at sub-department level and 145 local administrative units (cities and small towns) totalling 455 human settlements.

11. Sageata, 2004, 2005, 2008

12. POLITICAL APPROACH
a legislative project launched by Vasile Gherasim, the then mayor of the 1st district of Bucharest
In his view, Bucharest Metropolitan Area was to be an administrative-territorial unit in its own right, having the rank of county, including Bucharest and other 62 localities, all structured into two distinct parts:
Bucharest Metropolitan Centre (BMC), which would include the polarising urban core
Bucharest Pre-metropolitan Area (BPA) consisting of the rural belt around the Capital
The initiative was accompanied by a theoretical study regarding the need to organise this structure.

14. The project of a Capital-City Low (Bucharest-Ilfov Regional Strategic Reference Framework, The Bucharest-Ilfov Regional Development Agency) would transform Ilfov County into a metropolitan area :
metropolitan centre (currently Bucharest)
pre-metropolitan zone (small communes and cities in Ilfov County) patterned on the administrative structure of Rome
Run by a governor holding the rank of Prime-Minister and by a General Administrator of the metropolitan area.
Each town will maintain its own administrative structure, own development programmes and projects that will be implemented in a unitary manner.
Surface: about 2,050 km2, of which 800 km2 of rural area, and 250 km2 of urban area.

16. In line with the project document regarding the Strategy for Territorial Development of Romania 2035 spatial entities scheduled to play a major role in the Romanian urban system are foreseen to be developed
metropolitan poles with international potential (e.g. Bucharest, Timişoara, Iaşi and Constanţa)
metropolitan poles with superregional/interregional potential (e.g. Braşov, Cluj-Napoca, Craiova, Oradea, Ploieşti and Galaţi – Brăila)
poles with regional potential (e.g. Arad, Suceava, Râmnicu Vâlcea, Sibiu)
poles with limited regional potential (e.g. Tulcea, Bacău, Vaslui, Călăraşi)
sub-regional poles with urban functional zone potential
urban poles with zonal influence
urban poles with local influence and towns in the vicinity of metropolitan poles.

17. METHODS AND OBJECTIVES
METHODS AND DATA SOURCES:
MAPS
source
Year
Scale
Area (ha)
Austro-Hungarian map
1912 1:
25 596
Topographic map
1945
44 254
1975
50 420
SATELLITE IMAGES
year
data
Path/row
resolution
LANDSAT 4-5 TM
1988
1990
July 07
182/029
30 m
56 356
August 21
183/029
LANDSAT 7 ETM
2002
August 23
61 930
September 15
2014
75 548
April 09
Statistical data supplied by National Institute of Statistics:
Romanian Statistics Yearbooks ( )
TEMPO online (
GIS integration and analysing
OBJECTIVES:
Assessing spatial and temporal dynamics of the built-up areas in the BMA;
Assessing causes and effects of spatial suitability and prediction for urban sprawl

18. URBAN SPRAWL IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSING
CARTOGRAPHIC SOURCE
Austro-Hungarian map Topographic map 1:
SATELLITE IMAGES
LANDSAT 4-5 TM
LANDSAT 7 ETM
30 m
GIS
integration/processing
GEOSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS
INDICATOR
Expansion
INDICATOR
Local Expansion
INDICATOR
Annual Growth Rate
URBAN SPRAWL IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSING
SPATIO-TEMPORAL INTENSITY AND TREND
FURTHER ANALYSIS
(CORRELATIONS BETWEEN DIFFERENT INDEPENDENT VARIABLES)
FUTURE TENDENCY - PREDICTION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL GROWTH

19. KEY DRIVING FORCES OF CHANGE
POLITICAL
The 20th century ( )
Land reforms ( , 1945)
Major changes in the structure of landed property – expropriation of the rural population in order to increase the communal ownership
Putting different categories in possession of land (war veterans, widows and orphans, farmers with properties smaller than 5 ha etc.)
The establishment of the communist regime – liquidation of big landowners property
Centralised agriculture – collectivisation and state farms - mainly intensification/extensification of agriculture
The post-communist period ( )
The transition period ( )
Transition from a centralised economic system to the market economy
Land reform (L18/1991) – decollectivisation and privatisation of agriculture
Excess fragmentation, small, peasant-type family farms (env. 2-3 hectares); the degradation of production services in agriculture (irrigation, fertilization, mechanization), degradation of the productive quality of agricultural terrains - many arable lands and permanent crops had been abandoned
Pre-accession to the European Union - important land-use changes, deforestation and suburbanization
Post-transition period (2003-to date)
Changes related to EU integration - the implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
Economic boom (until 2008) and crisis (after 2008) - spatial dynamics – urban sprawl (suburbanization)

20. Bucharest and its surroundings, Landsat 5 Image (TM), 1984 and 2001 respectively (www.unep.cz)

21. Abandonment of land management works
Irrigations systems disaffected
Canals and dams destroyed
Associated with excessive land fragmentation, enhances the effects of dryness and drought phenomena

22. DEMOGRAPHIC
2011
positive trend in the first half of the 20th century - birth rate decrease, intensification of emigration abroad, high rate of mortality during the two World Wars);
positive trend - over the communist period due to pronatalist policies;
negative trend during the post-communist period (birth rate decrease, high levels of mortality rate, demographic aging).

23. Population dynamics over the 1912-2011 interval
BMA= 306.9%
Bucharest = 446%
Metropolitan area (without Bucharest) = 138.2%
Min. = -59.4% - Gurbăneşti
Max.= % - Voluntari

24. Population density related to built-up area (/km²)
Population density related to administrative limit (/km²)

25. 1912 – 4.8%
1945 – 8.3%
1975– 9.5%
1990– 10.6%
2002– 11.7%
2014– 14.2%

26. Expansion of built-up areas
OTOPENI
E = 0.24%
VOLUNTARI
E = 0.22%
CHIAJNA
E = 0.42%
CHITILA
E = 0.29%
DOBROESTI
E = 0.23%
BUCHAREST
E = >0.40%
E = (y-x)/LAU 2
y – last analysed year
x – first analysed year

27. Local Expansion of built-up areas
PANTELIMON
LE = 151%
OTOPENI
LE = 516%
CHIAJNA
LE = 242%
CHITILA
LE = 563%
BRAGADIRU
LE = 162%
VOLUNTARI
LE = 1733%
LE = E*100/x

28. Annual Growth Rate of built-up areas
OTOPENI
LE = 10 ha/year
VOLUNTARI
R = 35 ha/year
VOLUNTARI
R = 9 ha/year
PANTELIMON
R = 30 ha/year
CHIAJNA
R = 29 ha/year
POPESTI-LEORDENI
R = 7 ha/year
Exansion rate

29. Trend of built-up areas

30. CONCLUSIONS
Stronger connection between built-up areas dynamics, urban sprawl and the demographic and socio-political factors – shifting of sprawling trends from a period to another and from the core area to the surrounding areas;
Main built-up areas dynamics:
Expansion - up to 0.40% - Bucharest; 0.24% - Otopeni ( ); 0.42% - Chitila ( )
Local expansion (LE) - up to over 1733% - Voluntari town ( ); 242% ( )
Rate – up to 10 ha/year - Otopeni ( ); 35 ha/year - Voluntari ( )
Trend built-up areas – clear differences between the two analysed intervals
Significant environmental consequences (e.g. land abandonment, land fragmentation, real-estate market dynamics)
Better correlation between the spatial and statistical data sources would provide a more accurate assessment.

31. CONCLUSIONS Local driving factors:
Transport infrastructure and accessibility
The International Airport – Otopeni
The National Road 1 – important transport axis to/through the Carpathians
The Road Belt – deposits, logistic and commercial areas – Voluntari, Chiajna, Chitila, Otopeni
The existent Motorways – A1 (Pitesti) and A2 (Constanta)
Projected Motorway – A3 (Brasov) – land speculations
Projected new Road Belt – enlargement of the “suburban ring” – land speculations
Large shopping areas – hyper-markets at all road exits of Bucharest
Residential preferences
“Historical” – North of Bucharest
Recent preferences – people/developers trying to find new residential nuclei as an alternative to the “crowded North” – South and West
Natural
Environmental infrastructure

32. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !