1. The Age Old Question

2. Which is the bigger problem?

3. Which is the bigger problem?

4. Will unchecked population growth destroy a country
Will unchecked population growth destroy a country? – Take a look at these 3 cities
15,000
70,000
500,000
2,300,000
30,000
500,000
1,700,000
3,300,000
2.2 mil
6 mil
12 mil
25 mil

5. Will unchecked population growth destroy a country
Will unchecked population growth destroy a country? – Did these places survive?
1750
15,000
1801
70,000
1861
500,000
1911
2,300,000
1850
30,000
1880
500,000
1900
1,700,000
1930
3,300,000
1975
2.2 mil
1990
6 mil
2005
12 mil
2025
25 mil

6. Will unchecked population growth destroy a country
Will unchecked population growth destroy a country? - or was it more like thrive?
Manchester, England
1750
15,000
1801
70,000
1861
500,000
1911
2,300,000
Chicago
1850
30,000
1880
500,000
1900
1,700,000
1930
3,300,000
Dhaka, Bangladesh
1975
2,173,000
1990
6 mil
2005
12 mil
2025
25 mil

7. Malthus
1798 – An Essay on the Principles of Population: warned the world’s population was increasing exponentially and food supplies were growing linearly
Therefore, the population was outgrow food.

8. Neo-Malthusians
Malthus was wrong – He did not account for new farming techniques and food preservation.
Neo-Malthusians believe
overpopulation is a problem which must be addressed
Rapid population growth is a serous diversion of scarce resources
Governments should sponsor programs to reduce birth rates
So Malthus is only sort-of wrong?

9. Eugenics Population Policies
Designed to favor one racial or cultural sector
Nazi Germany
United States of America – NC
Was not about controlling the quantity of people, but the quality of people

10. Cornucopians 1980s American Economists believe Boserup Thesis –
Population growth is a stimulus to development
Technology has increased the carrying capacity
Boserup Thesis –
Population increases necessitate increased inputs of labor and technology to compensate for reduced yields

11. Anti-Natalist vs Pro-Natalist
Malthus & Neo-Malthusians
Encourage family planning
Overpopulation is a problem
Cornucopians & Boserup
Human ingenuity & technology will increase carrying capacity
Overpopulation is not a problem

12. Which is the bigger problem?
It depends on the country?

13. Restrictive Policies
Aka Anti-natalists – encourage family planning (birth control)
China (starting 1971)
Bolivia
Vietnam
Ethiopia
Singapore
Malaysia
Bangladesh – TFR: – 6, 2000 – 2.9
Thailand – TFR: – 6.5, 2005 – 1.7

14. Expansive Policies
Also known as pro-natalists – encourage large families
Nazi Germany
Soviet Union
Mao’s China
Ceausescu’s Romania
People’s Republic of Albania
Bulgaria
Mongolia
Some countries awarding medals for Mothers of 4, or 5, or 10, etc.

15. Expansive Policies Russia – Sweden –
Sept. 12 Conception Day in Ulyanovsk Province
Sweden –
1980s – couples with small children received tax incentives, job leaves, work flexibility for 8 years
Early 1990s – mini baby boom
However, in mid-1990s the economy slowed and so did the baby boom

16. China Still growing at about 7 million a year
But India is expected to pass China in 2025
Population: both Greatest Asset and Liability
Several of China’s demographic traits are similar to those of developed countries

17. China Compared to the US Source: PRB, 2009
China US
Total pop (mid-2009) 1,
Density (pop/mi2)
Birth rate
Death rate
TFR
Infant mortality
Life expectancy m. 71, f m.75, f.80
% Urban
% of pop > 65 yrs
Per capita GNI ppp $6,020 $46,970

18. West China
East China
Land
60%
40%
Climate
Arid / semi-arid
humid
Population
80 mil
Many minorities sparse
94% mostly Han
dense
Cities
Some
Most
Agriculture
Limited / oasis
most

19. China's Birth Control Policy: More than “One Couple, One Child”

20. Pre-Policy Traditional culture values large families
In the early 1950s under the rule of Mao Zedong birth control policies were condemned. Mao said that controlling the population was “a way of slaughtering the Chinese people without drawing blood.”
“…[the people] are the most precious of all categories of capital.”

21. Later, Longer, Fewer A campaign launched in 1971
Delayed marriage/childbirth, spacing births at 5-year intervals, and fewer children per couple
Contraceptives widely distributed, free of charge
Require government permission to have children
Family Planning Committees at all levels of governments
“Birth control nannies”
Intrusive questions

22. “One Couple, One Child” Adopted in 1979
The harshest birth control policy in the world?
Couples are asked to pledge to having only one child

23. Incentives Free prenatal care
Many rewards (mainly to urban residents):
larger homes, larger salaries and promotions.
Better, often free education for the only children.
Paid maternity leave, 3-6 months, or longer
The government generally pays for the birth control costs.

24. Consequences of Violation
The official sanction is a fine, but many times much more harsh actions are taken.
Sometimes couples are demoted or fired from their jobs.
Those having 2nd child cannot register them and therefore they do not legally exist.

25. Many exceptions for second child have been introduced since 1984
Examples:
Both members of the couple are only children
First child is disabled
For rural residents, if first child is a girl
Remarried couples
Minority couples

26. The Changing Demographic Landscapes
Decline in Fertility
A Rapid Demographic Transition
Aging
A Skewed Sex Ratio
Large-scale Internal Migration
esp. rural-urban migration

27. Decline in Birth Rates Significantly lowered pop growth
TFR: 1971: : 1.6
Below replacement level since 1992
Well below 1.0 in large cities (Beijing, Shanghai, etc.)
Birth rate: : ‰ 2009: 12.13‰
Natural growth: 1970: ‰ 2009: ‰
Shanghai: negative growth 17 years in a row so far
Significantly lowered pop growth
: 400 million fewer people were born because of family planning ??

28. Population aging % 65 yrs or older: Elderly growing at 3.2% each year
2000: 6%
2009: 8%
Elderly growing at 3.2% each year
May reach 10% at 2015, and 20% at 2035
The median age is on pace to move from the current 32 years to 44 years by 2040.

29. How many missing girls are there in the under 20 categories ?29

30. In 2020, 30-40 million more young men than women Social repercussions
Skewed Sex Ratio
Currently at 119:100
3 Main Reasons:
Son preference
Use of prenatal sex-detecting technology
Declining fertility
In 2020, million more young men than women
Social repercussions
“Demographic time bomb”

31. The “Care for Girls” Program
Launched in 2003
Changing Son Preference?

32. Urbanization Level

40. Iran: - Anti-natalist or pro-natalist ? 40

41. 1967 – first anti-natalist policy
1979 – pro-natalist
1988 – anti-natalist
2006 – pro-natalist ?

42. Iran 1967: Start of family planning 1979: start of Islamic Revolution
Ayatollah Khomeini
1967: Start of family planning
Accelerating economic growth
1979: start of Islamic Revolution
promotion of contraception by health officials banned
procreation to bolster the ranks of “soldiers for Islam” (8 year war with Iraq)

43. Khomeini’s pro-natalist policy resulted in a growth rate of 3.2 %
Total fertility rate
rose to 7

44. Iran 1988: Khomeini reconsidered his stance due to:
faltering economy
severe unemployment
overcrowded & polluted cities
1988 – 2001: national family planning program was revived
encouraged women to wait 3 – 4 years between children
discouraged childbearing for those < 18 and > 35
limit family size to 3 children by restricting maternity leave
government controlled media promoted family planning
investment in literacy (between 1970 & 2001)
males (48% – 84%)
females (25% - 70%)**
Total fertility rate dropped < 3 (expected to be 2 by 2010)

45. Iran 45

46. Iran
2006
"It is said that two children is enough. I oppose this,” President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told legislators.
"Our country has a lot of capacities. It even has the capacity for 120 million people.“
reduction in working hours for women to allow
for more child bearing & rearing

47. Quebec - Pro-natalist
1950’s - one of the highest Fertility Rates in the
developed world (Catholic & rural)
FR of 1.4 (1.7 Canada) & Quebec’s share
of Canadian population was decreasing 47

48. 1987 1st set of incentives $500 for each of 1st 2 children
$3000 for each subsequent child
child care facilities improved & expanded
tax free family allowance if 2 or more children
interest free housing loans (up to $7000) 48

49. 1992 1997 2nd set of incentives $500 for 1st child $1000 for 2nd child
$6000 for each subsequent child
other benefits remained the same
1997
Program ended after 10 yrs. of minimal success 49

50. 2003 election Parti Quebecois’ platform involved population expansion
Bernard Landry
Couples who have a baby within 5 years of finishing university will get 1/2 their student loan paid off. 50

51. Why do you think this offer was good for only
5 years after university ?
What group of people would be favoured
by this policy ? 51

52. Singapore - anti-natalist & pro-natalist
Since the mid-1960s, Singapore's government has attempted to control the country's rate of population growth with a mixture of publicity, exhortation, and material incentives and disincentives 52

53. Singapore - anti-natalist & pro-natalist
1947 – 1957
GR = 4.4 % (doubling time = ? years)
various government & private programs
slowed until 1970’s 53

54. 1969 – 1972 population disincentives
raise cost of 3rd and subsequent children
civil servants received no paid maternity leave for 3rd +
income tax deductions for 2 only
maternity hospitals charged progressively more for each additional child
enrollment to top primary schools went to children of pre – 40 sterilized parents 54

55. penalties affected poor more than rich
voluntary sterilization rewarded by seven days of paid sick leave and by priority in the allocation of such public goods as housing and education
publicity campaigns: "Stop at Two" and arguing that large families threatened parents' present livelihood and future security.
penalties affected poor more than rich 55

56. The anti-natalist policies worked so well,
now Singapore is promoting births again

57. India 1950s: government began a modest family planning campaign
Hospitals made birth control available
Gov’t hoped increased industrialization would lead to smaller families
1970s: more aggressive program
Gov’t believed growth rate was greatest obstacle to economic growth
Questionable sterilization programs
1980s: increased the number of family planning programs

58. India 1991: continued to have one of the fastest growing populations
Contributing factors
Son preference
Marrying young
Centralized gov’t controls program, doesn’t allow for regional differences
High infant mortality rate